Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Red Sox in May - By The Numbers

AL Pythagorean Standings for May 2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Toronto5.66(3)4.03(3)0.65(1)191019100
New York5.9(1)4.55(6)0.616(2)18111613-2
Boston5.72(2)4.55(6)0.603(3)171218111
Minnesota4.75(6)3.86(2)0.594(4)17111612-1
Tampa Bay4.21(10)3.52(1)0.581(5)171217120
Texas4.89(4)4.85(12)0.503(6)141315121
Los Angeles4.79(5)5(13)0.481(7)141514150
Detroit3.88(11)4.12(5)0.474(8)121412140
Kansas City4.34(8)4.62(8)0.472(9)14151217-2
Chicago4.37(7)4.7(9)0.466(10)131413140
Oakland3.54(14)4.04(4)0.44(11)121616124
Seattle3.74(12)4.81(10)0.387(12)1017819-2
Cleveland4.3(9)5.7(14)0.373(13)1017918-1
Baltimore3.57(13)4.82(11)0.366(14)101810180

We all knew that the AL East was the strongest division in baseball, but that's a scary-good month for four teams from the same division to put together. Overall, Tampa remains in first on the strength of their very hot start, but three of their division rivals outplayed them in May. I remain a Blue Jay skeptic, but they've played very well so far.


Red Sox Hitting - May 2010
PlayerABRunsHits2B3BHRRBIBBSBBAOBASPctOPSRCRC/25
Kevin Youkilis82292742717310.329.521.6831.20429.0512.74
David Ortiz801629401027100.363.424.7881.21123.5810.72
Adrian Beltre11116379152550.333.364.568.93220.306.34
J.D. Drew102213390218101.324.381.471.85118.366.46
Victor Martinez8714247061950.276.315.563.87815.546.17
Marco Scutaro11117298003170.261.359.333.69312.423.45
Dustin Pedroia10818237027160.213.325.333.65911.323.14
Darnell McDonald78319301722.244.263.321.5836.422.59
Jason Varitek3278103450.250.351.563.9146.336.59
Bill Hall50711004820.220.250.460.7105.903.78
Jeremy Hermida744143011540.189.228.270.4984.231.73
Mike Lowell3538400650.229.325.343.6683.553.06
Mike Cameron1746200210.353.389.471.8593.076.98
Jonathan Van Every1564101120.267.353.533.8862.836.43
Daisuke Matsuzaka201000000.500.500.5001.000.496.13
John Lackey100000000.000.000.000.000-.07-.88
Tim Wakefield300000000.000.000.000.000-.27-1.69
Angel Sanchez300000000.000.000.000.000-.30-2.50
Jacoby Ellsbury1411000210.071.133.071.205-.49-.94

Totals1005166274623421611163.273.350.466.815161.195.25

Youkilis and Ortiz had outstanding months, while Beltre, Drew and Martinz were very good. Varitek and Cameron were productive in limited at-bats.

Really, that is, I suspect, what a good offensive month for a team always looks like - a couple of dominant performances, two or three strong supporting performances, and then some guys whose struggles don't really stick out. Frequently, fans will look at a team and say, "yeah, they're doing well, but wait until Pedroia gets going, too!" But the fact is, everybody has ups and downs, hot and cold streaks, and rarely is everyone all hitting at the same time. This is what a productive team looks like. And this is why having hitters in every spot matters. You need everyone to win a game offensively once in a while to be a dominant team.


Red Sox Pitching - May 2010
PlayerGamesWLSvIPHRERBBKERAK9BB9HR9Runs Saved1RS/IP
Jon Lester6500442410917451.849.203.480.4112.210.28
Clay Buchholz65103835141319253.085.924.500.475.180.14
Manny Delcarmen1201014 2/38336121.847.363.680.614.400.30
Daniel Bard1210111 1/37216110.798.744.760.003.720.33
Scott Atchison10002 1/3400010.003.860.000.001.180.50
Bill Hall10001000000.000.000.000.000.500.50
Hideki Okajima100008 2/3944374.157.273.122.080.370.04
Joe Nelson50006633154.507.501.501.500.030.00
Ramon Ramirez100009 1/3955594.828.684.821.93-0.29-0.03
Jonathan Papelbon902510764383.607.202.701.80-0.95-0.10
Jonathan Van Every100012220118.009.000.009.00-1.50-1.50
John Lackey532031 1/333181818185.175.175.171.44-2.19-0.07
Tim Wakefield712027 1/3301818695.932.961.981.65-4.21-0.15
Daisuke Matsuzaka632034 1/327232221255.776.555.500.52-5.67-0.17
Scott Schoeneweis500048885518.0011.2511.250.00-5.98-1.50
Josh Beckett3010172016146207.4110.593.181.06-7.42-0.44

9918116260 1/32291321241162014.296.954.010.93-0.620.00

Jon Lester, other than the month of April, has been the best pitcher in the AL for the last two years. I've said before that I thought there was a Cy Young award in his future - it's not at all inconcievable that this would be the year. He probably won't put up a 1.84 ERA the rest of the way, but he was a dominant pitcher in the month of May. Clay Buchholz has helped him carry the rotation, as the rest have been inconsistent (Matsuzaka, Wakefield), mediocre (Lackey) or bad (Beckett). Manny Delcarmen appears to be a productive pitcher again, which is helpful, and Papelbon's eight good and scoreless outings are masked by the one disaster outing, four runs in 2/3 inning.





1 - Runs Saved - How many fewer runs the pitcher allowed in his innings pitched than the average AL pitcher has allowed in that number of innings. The AL average in 2010 thus far is 4.54 runs allowed per nine innings.

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