Monday, June 07, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 6/7/2010

If you've been reading these reports over the years, you've seen me say, many times, that four out of six makes a good week. Four out of six, over 162, is a 104 win team. But some four out of six weeks feel like lost opportunities, and this was one of them.

  • The first of the two losses was by one run at home in a game in which they had runners thrown out at the plate for the first out of two consecutive innings, and left six men at third. The second came by one run in 11 innings to a bad team breaking a 10-game losing streak, in which they loaded the bases without scoring in both the sixth and seventh innings. So the two losses were by one run each - the wins were by 2, 5, 6 and 11. Which makes it frustrating, as they could so easily have won one or both of the losses.
  • They kept pace with Toronto, lost 1/2 game vs. the Yankees and gained a game on Tampa, as the AL East continues to tighten. There are 4 1/2 games separating four teams now, and they are clearly four of the best five teams in the AL.
  • Boston's going to have to play well in Cleveland to keep pace with New York, as the Yankees are going into Baltimore. But Tampa and Toronto are going to combine on three losses early in the week playing head-to-head.
  • The Red Sox have moved into second in runs scored in the AL. Only the Yankees are scoring more runs per game than Boston. Some of the offseason concern about the offense appears to have been overblown.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Kevin Youkilis had another great week, and Dustin Pedroia was productive coming out of a bad slump, but the player of the week is Victor Martinez, who hit .600/.667/.950/1.617 on the week.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - I've got a split-award this week, and Jon Lester, who threw 6 1/3 scoreless in his only start of the week, isn't one of them. First, Clay Buchholz, who threw a complete game shutout in his only start of the week, dominating the Orioles for nine innings. And he shares the awared with Daniel Bard, who threw four perfect innings in three appearances, including a dominating five outs on Saturday in an at-the-time tight game, coming in with the bases loaded and only one out, and allowing none of the runners to score.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/7/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay5.19(3)3.63(1)0.658(1)38193720-1
New York5.51(1)4(3)0.642(2)37203522-2
Minnesota4.68(7)3.86(2)0.588(3)332433240
Toronto5.09(4)4.24(4)0.582(4)34243325-1
Boston5.41(2)4.72(9)0.562(5)332533250
Texas4.91(5)4.66(8)0.524(6)292730261
Detroit4.41(8)4.38(7)0.504(7)282829271
Los Angeles4.75(6)4.85(10)0.49(8)293031282
Oakland4.03(12)4.28(5)0.473(9)273130283
Kansas City4.36(9)4.95(11)0.443(10)26322434-2
Seattle3.63(13)4.3(6)0.422(11)24322234-2
Chicago4.2(10)4.98(12)0.422(12)243224320
Cleveland4.04(11)5.18(14)0.388(13)213421340
Baltimore3.26(14)5.14(13)0.303(14)17401641-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Tampa Bay10557
New York9963
Minnesota9468
Toronto9270
Boston9270

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Tampa Bay10656
New York10260
Minnesota9567
Toronto9468
Boston9171

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Los Angeles7(2)2.86(2)0.838(1)61610
Boston7.5(1)3.83(3)0.774(2)5142-1
New York5.14(5)2.71(1)0.763(3)52520
Texas6.83(3)5.17(9)0.625(4)42420
Toronto4(10)3.83(3)0.519(5)33330
Tampa Bay5.33(4)5.33(11)0.5(6)33330
Kansas City4.14(9)4.43(7)0.47(7)34340
Detroit3.86(11)4.14(5)0.467(8)34340
Oakland4.71(6)5.29(10)0.448(9)34340
Cleveland4.43(7)5.43(12)0.408(10)34340
Minnesota3(13)4.14(5)0.356(11)25341
Seattle3.43(12)5(8)0.334(12)25341
Chicago4.17(8)6.83(14)0.288(13)24240
Baltimore1.83(14)6.67(13)0.086(14)15150

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