Monday Pythagorean 9/15/2008

24 weeks down, two to go...

• 4-3 is not a bad week. But this 4-3 week had a couple of significant missed opportunities. Tuesday night, the Red Sox took a one-run lead into the 9th. Wednesday, they had five innings where a run scored would have ended the game with a win. They lost both. Had they won either, they'd be one up with 13 to go instead of one down.



• Boston and Tampa are tied in the win column. Tampa has two fewer losses, for a one-game lead in the division. Boston has 13 games remaining, Tampa 15.



• On the Wild Card front, Boston's Magic Number to eliminate Toronto and New York is five (5). Boston's number to eliminate Minnesota is ten (10).



• For the next three nights, the Sox and Jays are going to play head-to-head in Tampa. Come Wednesday morning, the East will be somewhere between Boston 2 in front and Tampa 4 in front. When I know, I'll tell you who wins the AL East. In fact, I'll tell you right now. If Boston wins 2 or 3, so that they leave Tampa tied or 2 up, Boston wins the East. If Tampa wins 2 or 3, so that the lead is 2 or 4, Tampa wins the East.



• Regardless, both of these teams will still be playing three weeks from now.



• On April 23, Jon Lester made his 6th start and gave up 4 runs in 5 innings to the Angels. After that game, he was 1-2, with a 5.40 ERA, just over 5 innings pitched per start, and 5.4 walks per 9 innings. Since then, he's made 25 starts, pitched 6 2/3 innings per start, allowed an ERA of 2.72, and about 2.33 walks per 9 innings.



• Lester's one of only 12 ML pitchers with 20-plus starts and an ERA under 3.00 over that stretch.



• Daisuke Matsuzaka is one of the others.



• If you're looking ahead to the post-season and considering the importance of strong starting pitching, it's worth nothing that the Red Sox are the only team with two of them.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/15/2008

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.27	(2)	4.21	(4)	0.601	(1)	90	59	88	61	-2
Toronto	4.46	(11)	3.83	(1)	0.569	(2)	85	65	80	70	-5
Tampa Bay	4.65	(10)	4.06	(2)	0.561	(3)	83	64	88	59	5
Minnesota	5.16	(3)	4.52	(7)	0.561	(4)	84	65	82	67	-2
Chicago	5.05	(5)	4.43	(6)	0.56	(5)	83	65	83	65	0
Los Angeles	4.66	(9)	4.19	(3)	0.549	(6)	82	67	92	57	10
New York	4.83	(8)	4.6	(8)	0.521	(7)	78	71	79	70	1
Cleveland	4.87	(7)	4.67	(9)	0.519	(8)	77	72	72	77	-5
Detroit	5.05	(5)	5.18	(12)	0.489	(9)	72	76	70	78	-2
Oakland	3.96	(14)	4.21	(4)	0.472	(10)	70	79	69	80	-1
Baltimore	5.05	(4)	5.45	(13)	0.466	(11)	69	79	66	82	-3
Texas	5.46	(1)	5.9	(14)	0.465	(12)	70	80	73	77	3
Seattle	4.16	(13)	4.97	(10)	0.419	(13)	62	86	57	91	-5
Kansas City	4.18	(12)	5.01	(11)	0.418	(14)	62	87	65	84	3

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Los Angeles	100	62
Tampa Bay	97	65
Boston	96	66
Chicago	91	71
Minnesota	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Los Angeles	99	63
Boston	96	66
Tampa Bay	96	66
Chicago	91	71
Minnesota	89	73

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Minnesota	7.17	(1)	3.5	(2)	0.788	(1)	5	1	4	2	-1
Los Angeles	5.43	(3)	3.14	(1)	0.731	(2)	5	2	6	1	1
Texas	5.33	(5)	4.33	(6)	0.594	(3)	4	2	3	3	-1
Toronto	4.75	(8)	4	(4)	0.578	(4)	5	3	4	4	-1
Boston	4	(13)	3.57	(3)	0.552	(5)	4	3	4	3	0
Kansas City	5.71	(2)	5.43	(9)	0.523	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Tampa Bay	4.17	(11)	4	(4)	0.519	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Chicago	4.67	(9)	5.17	(8)	0.454	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Detroit	5.4	(4)	6.2	(12)	0.437	(9)	2	3	1	4	-1
Oakland	4.43	(10)	5.14	(7)	0.432	(10)	3	4	4	3	1
Baltimore	5.29	(6)	6.57	(13)	0.402	(11)	3	4	3	4	0
New York	4.17	(11)	5.5	(10)	0.376	(12)	2	4	3	3	1
Cleveland	5.13	(7)	7	(14)	0.361	(13)	3	5	3	5	0
Seattle	3.83	(14)	5.83	(11)	0.317	(14)	2	4	1	5	-1