Monday, September 15, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 9/15/2008

24 weeks down, two to go...

  • 4-3 is not a bad week. But this 4-3 week had a couple of significant missed opportunities. Tuesday night, the Red Sox took a one-run lead into the 9th. Wednesday, they had five innings where a run scored would have ended the game with a win. They lost both. Had they won either, they'd be one up with 13 to go instead of one down.


  • Boston and Tampa are tied in the win column. Tampa has two fewer losses, for a one-game lead in the division. Boston has 13 games remaining, Tampa 15.


  • On the Wild Card front, Boston's Magic Number to eliminate Toronto and New York is five (5). Boston's number to eliminate Minnesota is ten (10).


  • For the next three nights, the Sox and Jays are going to play head-to-head in Tampa. Come Wednesday morning, the East will be somewhere between Boston 2 in front and Tampa 4 in front. When I know, I'll tell you who wins the AL East. In fact, I'll tell you right now. If Boston wins 2 or 3, so that they leave Tampa tied or 2 up, Boston wins the East. If Tampa wins 2 or 3, so that the lead is 2 or 4, Tampa wins the East.


  • Regardless, both of these teams will still be playing three weeks from now.


  • On April 23, Jon Lester made his 6th start and gave up 4 runs in 5 innings to the Angels. After that game, he was 1-2, with a 5.40 ERA, just over 5 innings pitched per start, and 5.4 walks per 9 innings. Since then, he's made 25 starts, pitched 6 2/3 innings per start, allowed an ERA of 2.72, and about 2.33 walks per 9 innings.


  • Lester's one of only 12 ML pitchers with 20-plus starts and an ERA under 3.00 over that stretch.


  • Daisuke Matsuzaka is one of the others.


  • If you're looking ahead to the post-season and considering the importance of strong starting pitching, it's worth nothing that the Red Sox are the only team with two of them.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/15/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.27(2)4.21(4)0.601(1)90598861-2

Toronto4.46(11)3.83(1)0.569(2)85658070-5

Tampa Bay4.65(10)4.06(2)0.561(3)836488595

Minnesota5.16(3)4.52(7)0.561(4)84658267-2

Chicago5.05(5)4.43(6)0.56(5)836583650

Los Angeles4.66(9)4.19(3)0.549(6)8267925710

New York4.83(8)4.6(8)0.521(7)787179701

Cleveland4.87(7)4.67(9)0.519(8)77727277-5

Detroit5.05(5)5.18(12)0.489(9)72767078-2

Oakland3.96(14)4.21(4)0.472(10)70796980-1

Baltimore5.05(4)5.45(13)0.466(11)69796682-3

Texas5.46(1)5.9(14)0.465(12)708073773

Seattle4.16(13)4.97(10)0.419(13)62865791-5

Kansas City4.18(12)5.01(11)0.418(14)628765843




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Los Angeles10062

Tampa Bay9765

Boston9666

Chicago9171

Minnesota8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Los Angeles9963

Boston9666

Tampa Bay9666

Chicago9171

Minnesota8973




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Minnesota7.17(1)3.5(2)0.788(1)5142-1

Los Angeles5.43(3)3.14(1)0.731(2)52611

Texas5.33(5)4.33(6)0.594(3)4233-1

Toronto4.75(8)4(4)0.578(4)5344-1

Boston4(13)3.57(3)0.552(5)43430

Kansas City5.71(2)5.43(9)0.523(6)43430

Tampa Bay4.17(11)4(4)0.519(7)33330

Chicago4.67(9)5.17(8)0.454(8)33330

Detroit5.4(4)6.2(12)0.437(9)2314-1

Oakland4.43(10)5.14(7)0.432(10)34431

Baltimore5.29(6)6.57(13)0.402(11)34340

New York4.17(11)5.5(10)0.376(12)24331

Cleveland5.13(7)7(14)0.361(13)35350

Seattle3.83(14)5.83(11)0.317(14)2415-1

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