Well, that's a little more like it...
- The Red Sox had a great week, going 5-1 while outscoring the opposition 49-28 (and 15 of the 28 allowed were in one game.)
- The Rays went 1-5 while being outscored 34-21.
- The lead, 5 1/2 games a week ago, is down to 1 1/2.
- After a prolonged stretch of mediocrity, Boston is 17-7 in the last three weeks.
- It probably is not true to say that the Red Sox are now in control of the division. But, at this point, I consider them the favorites, for a couple of reasons. First, despite the records, the Red Sox have been a significantly better team than Tampa so far. Second, the schedule is biased in Boston's favor. 14 of their 20 remaining games are at home with only six on the road. The Rays have only got 7 homes games left and 14 on the road. Third, to the extent that "having been there" and "knowing how to handle the pressure of the pennant race" mean anything, the Red Sox obviously have huge advantages in those categories. I was skeptical a week ago, but I am now predicting (as I have been for most of the season) that the Red Sox win the East.
- If Tampa sweeps the Sox in Boston this week, I'll retract that...
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/8/2008
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Boston | 5.33 | (2) | 4.24 | (4) | 0.603 | (1) | 86 | 56 | 84 | 58 | -2
| | Toronto | 4.44 | (11) | 3.82 | (1) | 0.568 | (2) | 81 | 61 | 76 | 66 | -5
| | Chicago | 5.06 | (4) | 4.39 | (6) | 0.564 | (3) | 80 | 62 | 80 | 62 | 0
| | Tampa Bay | 4.67 | (9) | 4.06 | (2) | 0.563 | (4) | 79 | 62 | 85 | 56 | 6
| | Minnesota | 5.08 | (3) | 4.56 | (8) | 0.549 | (5) | 79 | 64 | 78 | 65 | -1
| | Los Angeles | 4.63 | (10) | 4.24 | (4) | 0.54 | (6) | 77 | 65 | 86 | 56 | 9
| | Cleveland | 4.85 | (8) | 4.54 | (7) | 0.53 | (7) | 75 | 66 | 69 | 72 | -6
| | New York | 4.85 | (7) | 4.57 | (9) | 0.528 | (8) | 75 | 68 | 76 | 67 | 1
| | Detroit | 5.03 | (6) | 5.14 | (12) | 0.491 | (9) | 70 | 73 | 69 | 74 | -1
| | Oakland | 3.94 | (14) | 4.16 | (3) | 0.475 | (10) | 67 | 75 | 65 | 77 | -2
| | Baltimore | 5.04 | (5) | 5.39 | (13) | 0.47 | (11) | 66 | 75 | 63 | 78 | -3
| | Texas | 5.47 | (1) | 5.97 | (14) | 0.46 | (12) | 66 | 78 | 70 | 74 | 4
| | Seattle | 4.18 | (12) | 4.94 | (10) | 0.424 | (13) | 60 | 82 | 56 | 86 | -4
| | Kansas City | 4.11 | (13) | 4.99 | (11) | 0.411 | (14) | 58 | 84 | 61 | 81 | 3
| |
|---|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Tampa Bay | 98 | 64
|
| Los Angeles | 98 | 64
|
| Boston | 96 | 66
|
| Chicago | 91 | 71
|
| Minnesota | 88 | 74
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Tampa Bay | 97 | 65
|
| Los Angeles | 97 | 65
|
| Boston | 96 | 66
|
| Chicago | 91 | 71
|
| Minnesota | 88 | 74
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Cleveland | 4.83 | (7) | 2.33 | (1) | 0.791 | (1) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1
| | Toronto | 5.83 | (3) | 2.83 | (2) | 0.789 | (2) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1
| | Boston | 8.17 | (1) | 4.67 | (7) | 0.736 | (3) | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1
| | Oakland | 5.6 | (4) | 4.4 | (5) | 0.609 | (4) | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1
| | New York | 6.14 | (2) | 4.86 | (8) | 0.606 | (5) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0
| | Seattle | 4.67 | (9) | 3.83 | (3) | 0.589 | (6) | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1
| | Kansas City | 4.33 | (11) | 4.17 | (4) | 0.518 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1
| | Chicago | 4.33 | (11) | 4.5 | (6) | 0.483 | (8) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Los Angeles | 4.83 | (7) | 5.5 | (9) | 0.441 | (9) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Texas | 5.17 | (6) | 6.5 | (12) | 0.396 | (10) | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1
| | Minnesota | 4.67 | (9) | 6 | (11) | 0.387 | (11) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1
| | Detroit | 5.43 | (5) | 7.14 | (13) | 0.377 | (12) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0
| | Tampa Bay | 3.5 | (13) | 5.67 | (10) | 0.293 | (13) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1
| | Baltimore | 2.6 | (14) | 8.4 | (14) | 0.105 | (14) | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -1
| |
|---|
Labels: 2008, MLB, pythagorean, Red Sox
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Comment?
<< Home