Monday, September 08, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 9/8/2008

Well, that's a little more like it...

  • The Red Sox had a great week, going 5-1 while outscoring the opposition 49-28 (and 15 of the 28 allowed were in one game.)


  • The Rays went 1-5 while being outscored 34-21.


  • The lead, 5 1/2 games a week ago, is down to 1 1/2.


  • After a prolonged stretch of mediocrity, Boston is 17-7 in the last three weeks.


  • It probably is not true to say that the Red Sox are now in control of the division. But, at this point, I consider them the favorites, for a couple of reasons. First, despite the records, the Red Sox have been a significantly better team than Tampa so far. Second, the schedule is biased in Boston's favor. 14 of their 20 remaining games are at home with only six on the road. The Rays have only got 7 homes games left and 14 on the road. Third, to the extent that "having been there" and "knowing how to handle the pressure of the pennant race" mean anything, the Red Sox obviously have huge advantages in those categories. I was skeptical a week ago, but I am now predicting (as I have been for most of the season) that the Red Sox win the East.


  • If Tampa sweeps the Sox in Boston this week, I'll retract that...





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/8/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.33(2)4.24(4)0.603(1)86568458-2

Toronto4.44(11)3.82(1)0.568(2)81617666-5

Chicago5.06(4)4.39(6)0.564(3)806280620

Tampa Bay4.67(9)4.06(2)0.563(4)796285566

Minnesota5.08(3)4.56(8)0.549(5)79647865-1

Los Angeles4.63(10)4.24(4)0.54(6)776586569

Cleveland4.85(8)4.54(7)0.53(7)75666972-6

New York4.85(7)4.57(9)0.528(8)756876671

Detroit5.03(6)5.14(12)0.491(9)70736974-1

Oakland3.94(14)4.16(3)0.475(10)67756577-2

Baltimore5.04(5)5.39(13)0.47(11)66756378-3

Texas5.47(1)5.97(14)0.46(12)667870744

Seattle4.18(12)4.94(10)0.424(13)60825686-4

Kansas City4.11(13)4.99(11)0.411(14)588461813




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Tampa Bay9864

Los Angeles9864

Boston9666

Chicago9171

Minnesota8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Tampa Bay9765

Los Angeles9765

Boston9666

Chicago9171

Minnesota8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland4.83(7)2.33(1)0.791(1)5142-1

Toronto5.83(3)2.83(2)0.789(2)51601

Boston8.17(1)4.67(7)0.736(3)42511

Oakland5.6(4)4.4(5)0.609(4)3223-1

New York6.14(2)4.86(8)0.606(5)43430

Seattle4.67(9)3.83(3)0.589(6)4233-1

Kansas City4.33(11)4.17(4)0.518(7)33421

Chicago4.33(11)4.5(6)0.483(8)33330

Los Angeles4.83(7)5.5(9)0.441(9)33330

Texas5.17(6)6.5(12)0.396(10)24331

Minnesota4.67(9)6(11)0.387(11)2415-1

Detroit5.43(5)7.14(13)0.377(12)34340

Tampa Bay3.5(13)5.67(10)0.293(13)2415-1

Baltimore2.6(14)8.4(14)0.105(14)1405-1

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