Tuesday, September 09, 2008

NFL Week 1 wrapup

Week 1 in the NFL...

  • The big story of the weekend, obviously, is the season-ending injury to last year's MVP. The question is, what does this do to the AFC playoff race? Clearly, the Patriots are no longer the overwhelming favorites to win the conference. There is some question about whether they are still even the favorites to win their division. Are the Jets with Brett Favre, better than the Patriots with Matt Cassel? We'll get a look at them on the same field this weekend.


  • Tennessee is significantly better, or Jacksonville significantly worse, than I thought.


  • Carolina is significantly better, or San Diego significantly worse, than I thought.


  • Oakland is neither significantly better (which is theoretically possible) nor significantly worse (which is not) than I thought.


  • Note to Romeo Crennel: Down by three scores, with ten minutes left in the game, 4th and 3 on the opponents 17 is a "go for it" situation, not a field goal situation. And I guarantee that somewhere, Gregg Easterbrook wrote "game over" in his notebook when Dawson lined up for the kick...


  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say:

    Seattle at Buffalo - "If Buffalo wants to be what Buffalo thinks it should be, they win this game. Period."

    Denver at Oakland - "4-5-4-2-4. Those are the Raiders' win totals for the last five years. When this one finishes, I suspect they'll still be looking back at that five win 2004 season as the "good old days...""

    Cincinnati at Baltimore - "How much longer does Marvin Lewis have to actually win something? He's been in Cincinnati for five years and they've been over .500 once, under .500 once and exactly .500 three times. If they go 8-8 again, is it time for the proverbial "new direction?" Does appeasing Chris Henry and Chad Johnson Ocho Cinco really look like the right approach? The Ravens are starting a rookie QB, but the Bengals have done nothing over the past five years to suggest that that's a problem. Baltimore's getting a point at home, and they're the pick."


  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite):

    Chicago at Indianapolis - "Like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning will be seeing his first action of the year on Sunday afternoon. Like Brady, Manning's team is playing a home game against a weaker opponent. And, like Brady, Manning's team will win easily."

    Detroit at Atlanta - "Another rookie QB making his debut in a home game against an inconsistent team. But Ryan isn't surrounded with the same level of talent that Flacco is. I expect some great games and some horrible games from the Lions, as is their wont, but they should be able to win this one."

    Jacksonville at Tennessee - "Why is this 3 and not 13 or 23?"


  • For the week:
    Winners: 10-6
    ATS: 9-7-0


  • For the season:
    Winners: 10-6
    ATS: 9-7-0

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