Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Monday Pythagorean on Wednesday

This is how things stood two days ago. The Red Sox are, of course, 0-2 since then, but this report deals with last week only, so it's written as if the last two days had not happened yet.

  • Sometimes, you look at a 4-3 week and think, "not bad." And sometimes you look at it and think, "what a wasted opportunity!" This was the latter, as they were two blown Papelbon saves from a 6-1 week. Not only did he lose back games in back-to-back appearances for the first time in his career, he had never before had two losses in any 10-appearance span, and only once had he had two losses in a 20-appearance span.


  • The offense continued to roll, scoring at least 5 runs in every game, and averaging over six for the week. The pitching was less consistent, as Wakefield followed a stellar performance in Detroit with a bomb in Minnesota. Julian Tavarez finally managed to pitch himself off the team, and, as optimistic as I am about Craig Hansen, he still hasn't done it yet.


  • As I said last week, I was pretty much out of touch for this weeks games. I woke at about 2:30 in the morning, Cardiff Time, on Saturday and listened to the last couple innings of the game that Papelbon lost in Minnesota Friday night, and that was all that I saw or heard live after Tuesday. So I don't have anything else this week.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/12/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Oakland4.79(2)3.72(1)0.614(1)24152316-1

Boston5.15(1)4.38(8)0.574(2)231724161

Cleveland4.47(8)3.83(2)0.57(3)21151818-3

Chicago4.58(6)4.03(4)0.559(4)20161818-2

Tampa Bay4.62(4)4.19(5)0.545(5)201721161

New York4.39(9)4.32(6)0.508(6)191919190

Los Angeles4.56(7)4.56(12)0.5(7)201922172

Minnesota4.39(10)4.53(11)0.486(8)171919172

Toronto3.82(13)3.95(3)0.484(9)18201721-1

Baltimore4.03(11)4.32(6)0.468(10)182019191

Seattle3.92(12)4.51(10)0.436(11)17221524-2

Detroit4.74(3)5.5(14)0.432(12)162216220

Texas4.59(5)5.41(13)0.425(13)172218211

Kansas City3.59(14)4.41(9)0.408(14)152216211




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9765

Oakland9666

Tampa Bay9270

Los Angeles9171

Minnesota8676




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland9963

Boston9468

Cleveland9072

Tampa Bay8973

Chicago8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland5.8(2)2(1)0.875(1)41410

Tampa Bay4.5(6)3(2)0.677(2)42511

Texas5.14(4)3.43(3)0.677(3)52520

Boston6.29(1)4.57(10)0.642(4)43430

Oakland4.67(5)4(6)0.57(5)33421

Minnesota5.67(3)5.5(12)0.514(6)33330

Chicago4.33(7)4.33(9)0.5(7)33431

New York3.8(8)3.8(4)0.5(7)3223-1

Baltimore3.67(10)3.83(5)0.48(9)33340

Kansas City3.71(9)4.29(8)0.435(10)3425-1

Los Angeles3(12)4(6)0.371(11)24240

Detroit3.67(10)5.83(14)0.3(12)24240

Seattle2.86(13)5(11)0.264(13)25250

Toronto2.5(14)5.5(12)0.191(14)15241

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