Monday Pythagorean on Wednesday

This is how things stood two days ago. The Red Sox are, of course, 0-2 since then, but this report deals with last week only, so it's written as if the last two days had not happened yet.

• Sometimes, you look at a 4-3 week and think, "not bad." And sometimes you look at it and think, "what a wasted opportunity!" This was the latter, as they were two blown Papelbon saves from a 6-1 week. Not only did he lose back games in back-to-back appearances for the first time in his career, he had never before had two losses in any 10-appearance span, and only once had he had two losses in a 20-appearance span.



• The offense continued to roll, scoring at least 5 runs in every game, and averaging over six for the week. The pitching was less consistent, as Wakefield followed a stellar performance in Detroit with a bomb in Minnesota. Julian Tavarez finally managed to pitch himself off the team, and, as optimistic as I am about Craig Hansen, he still hasn't done it yet.



• As I said last week, I was pretty much out of touch for this weeks games. I woke at about 2:30 in the morning, Cardiff Time, on Saturday and listened to the last couple innings of the game that Papelbon lost in Minnesota Friday night, and that was all that I saw or heard live after Tuesday. So I don't have anything else this week.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/12/2008

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Oakland	4.79	(2)	3.72	(1)	0.614	(1)	24	15	23	16	-1
Boston	5.15	(1)	4.38	(8)	0.574	(2)	23	17	24	16	1
Cleveland	4.47	(8)	3.83	(2)	0.57	(3)	21	15	18	18	-3
Chicago	4.58	(6)	4.03	(4)	0.559	(4)	20	16	18	18	-2
Tampa Bay	4.62	(4)	4.19	(5)	0.545	(5)	20	17	21	16	1
New York	4.39	(9)	4.32	(6)	0.508	(6)	19	19	19	19	0
Los Angeles	4.56	(7)	4.56	(12)	0.5	(7)	20	19	22	17	2
Minnesota	4.39	(10)	4.53	(11)	0.486	(8)	17	19	19	17	2
Toronto	3.82	(13)	3.95	(3)	0.484	(9)	18	20	17	21	-1
Baltimore	4.03	(11)	4.32	(6)	0.468	(10)	18	20	19	19	1
Seattle	3.92	(12)	4.51	(10)	0.436	(11)	17	22	15	24	-2
Detroit	4.74	(3)	5.5	(14)	0.432	(12)	16	22	16	22	0
Texas	4.59	(5)	5.41	(13)	0.425	(13)	17	22	18	21	1
Kansas City	3.59	(14)	4.41	(9)	0.408	(14)	15	22	16	21	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	97	65
Oakland	96	66
Tampa Bay	92	70
Los Angeles	91	71
Minnesota	86	76

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Oakland	99	63
Boston	94	68
Cleveland	90	72
Tampa Bay	89	73
Chicago	88	74

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Cleveland	5.8	(2)	2	(1)	0.875	(1)	4	1	4	1	0
Tampa Bay	4.5	(6)	3	(2)	0.677	(2)	4	2	5	1	1
Texas	5.14	(4)	3.43	(3)	0.677	(3)	5	2	5	2	0
Boston	6.29	(1)	4.57	(10)	0.642	(4)	4	3	4	3	0
Oakland	4.67	(5)	4	(6)	0.57	(5)	3	3	4	2	1
Minnesota	5.67	(3)	5.5	(12)	0.514	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
Chicago	4.33	(7)	4.33	(9)	0.5	(7)	3	3	4	3	1
New York	3.8	(8)	3.8	(4)	0.5	(7)	3	2	2	3	-1
Baltimore	3.67	(10)	3.83	(5)	0.48	(9)	3	3	3	4	0
Kansas City	3.71	(9)	4.29	(8)	0.435	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
Los Angeles	3	(12)	4	(6)	0.371	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Detroit	3.67	(10)	5.83	(14)	0.3	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Seattle	2.86	(13)	5	(11)	0.264	(13)	2	5	2	5	0
Toronto	2.5	(14)	5.5	(12)	0.191	(14)	1	5	2	4	1