Monday, April 21, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 4/21/2008

It should go without saying (but you'll notice that I'm saying it anyway) that 6-1 is a darned good week.

  • The offense has been good. Very good. They averaged 7 runs/game for the week, and are now up to 5.2 runs/game for the season, 2nd in the AL, despite the weak start. And they've been better late than early. Hitting 0.339/.413/.518 as a team will help you score a lot of runs.


  • The pitching continues to underperform both my desires and my expectations, as the 5.4 runs/game allowed on the week was tenth in the AL. But this is an excellent time to note, again, one of the flaws in both runs/game and pythagorean computations. One game can seriously skew the numbers. In this case, the Red Sox played seven games and allowed 37 runs. But they allowed 22 runs in six of those games, and 15 in the other one. Their average for the week ends up looking bad, but in six of the seven games played, they pitched pretty well. For the week, they allowed 4, 3, 15, 5, 3, 3 and 5. Everyone sing along, now - "One of these things is not like the others..." A team with Boston's offense should win a significant majority of its games when allowing only 3 runs, and they did that three times. Even at five runs allowed, they should win at least half of their games. What they've done so far is get pretty well pitched games most of the times, with a couple of disaster starts. And, in the disaster starts, they've used the weak part of the bullpen and the games have gotten out of hand. But every time that happens, it's just one loss, despite the impact on the runs allowed average.


  • The Red Sox trailed after six innings five times this week, and won four of them.
    On Monday, they trailed 4-1 going to the seventh, 4-3 going to the ninth, and won.
    On Tuesday, they trailed 2-1 going to the seventh and won.
    On Saturday, they trailed 3-2 going to the eighth and won.
    On Sunday, they trailed 5-0 going to the seventh, 5-2 going to the eighth, and won.


  • A very nice debut for Jed Lowrie. Three starts, three different positions, and he hit .417/.385/.667 for the week. The batting average and SLG won't stay there, but there's reason to think that the team would be better off giving him the SS job and trying get nickels on the dollar from someone for Lugo.


  • Pro forma is Latin for "as a matter of form." It has various uses in different context, but I think it's fair to say that Kyle Farnsworth's explanation for the ball behind Manny Ramirez' head on Thursday night ("it just slipped") could fall into the pro forma category. Farnsworth's lying. He knows that he's lying, everyone else knows that he's lying and he knows that everyone knows that he's lying and everyone knows that he knows that everyone knows that he's lying. But he has to say it anyway. That's the "matter of form" that the situation demands.

    The AL isn't buying it, of course, and he got a three-game suspension anyway...


  • AL Offensive Player of the Week: Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox. 10-24 with four walks, a double and four HR, Manny hit .417/.517/.958 for the week.


  • AL Pitcher of the Week: John Danks, Chicago White Sox. Two starts, eight hits and no runs allowed in 14 2/3 innings pitched, he walked only two while striking out 12.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/21/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago5.44(1)3.67(1)0.673(1)126117-1

Toronto4.95(3)4(3)0.596(2)118109-1

Oakland4.55(7)3.75(2)0.588(3)1281280

Los Angeles4.85(4)4.35(7)0.55(4)1191281

Seattle4.7(6)4.25(6)0.546(5)1191010-1

Boston5.2(2)4.85(12)0.532(6)1191372

Tampa Bay4.84(5)4.53(9)0.531(7)109811-2

Baltimore4.42(8)4.42(8)0.5(8)1091181

New York4.25(9)4.65(10)0.459(9)91110101

Minnesota3.74(13)4.11(5)0.457(10)9109100

Cleveland4.16(10)4.74(11)0.441(11)811712-1

Kansas City3.32(14)4.05(4)0.409(12)8119101

Texas4.16(10)5.11(13)0.407(13)811712-1

Detroit4.05(12)6.16(14)0.317(14)6136130




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10557

Chicago9963

Oakland9765

Los Angeles9765

Baltimore9468




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Chicago10854

Toronto9567

Oakland9567

Los Angeles9072

Boston8973




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago4(12)2.43(1)0.714(1)5243-1

Los Angeles4.57(5)3.29(2)0.647(2)52520

Seattle4.71(4)3.57(3)0.624(3)43430

Boston7(1)5.43(10)0.614(4)43612

Oakland4.57(5)3.57(3)0.611(5)43430

Detroit6.29(2)5.57(11)0.555(6)43430

Toronto4.57(5)4.43(6)0.515(7)4334-1

New York6(3)5.86(12)0.511(8)43430

Baltimore4.14(10)4.43(6)0.47(9)34431

Minnesota4.29(8)4.86(8)0.443(10)34340

Cleveland3.57(13)4.29(5)0.417(11)3425-1

Tampa Bay4.14(10)5.29(9)0.39(12)3425-1

Texas4.29(8)6(13)0.351(13)25250

Kansas City3.57(13)6.43(14)0.254(14)25250

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