Monday, April 14, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 4/14/2008

2 of 3 from the Tigers. 2 of 3 from the Yankees. 2 of 3 consistently makes for a very successful baseball season, and this was a successful week.

  • The Red Sox and Yankees seem to always play long games. Fox had a stat last September which, if I remember correctly, indicated that Red Sox-Yankees games were, on average, 20 minutes longer than other ML games. Which wouldn't surprise me at all. They have two disciplined teams that take a lot of pitches, and there always seems to be situational magnification which causes extra consideration before every move and every pitch. Last night's game went 3:55, and, frankly, felt typical. Even Friday's game, a 4-1 Yankee win in which the Red Sox only had two hits and no walks, went 2:59. So it was kind of darkly ironic that one of the faster games that they've played in recent memory, Saturday's 4-3 Boston win (game time: 2:49) took over five hours from start to finish, as the rains came in from the bullpen with Papelbon in the bottom of the 8th, and it was over two hours before he actually threw a pitch.


  • David Ortiz is in (and hopefully nearing the end of) the worst slump of his career. But he's really hurt the Sox offense. For the week, he was 0-17 with as many GIDP (four) as walks. When you get that from your number three hitter, it's tough to put together a big offensive game. To their credit, they managed once, and pitched well enough to win twice more with him playing. It won't last, but it's certainly a hindrance while it does.


  • Mike Timlin came off the DL to allow five hits, two of which left the park, while retiring only one batter. It's early, it's a small sample size, he's been effective in the past - all true. So is this - he's 42 and he won't be effective forever. This is a situation that they need to monitor carefully.


  • Drew continues to hit the ball hard, as well as drawing five walks on the week.


  • Ellsbury also, in what I consider to be a great sign, drew five walks on the week. I think that it's clear that he's going to be a decent hitter, and he can fly. If he can demonstrate the plate discipline to walk 60+ times a year, he'll be a great player.


  • Good starting pitching for most of the week. Lester wasn't great on Wednesday, and Matsuzaka was very shaky last night (fortunately, Hughes was much worse.) Beckett looked strong, Buchholz pitched well on Friday, Wakefield had a good game. All in all, a good week for the starters.


  • The bullpen was less impressive. They held on for wins on Saturday and Sunday, but lost the game on Friday, and, while the offense didn't do anything on Wednesday, the three runs the 'pen allowed late prevented the team from having a decent shot in the bottom of the 9th. A two-run deficit is very different than a five-run deficit.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/14/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago6.36(1)4.45(8)0.658(1)74740

Toronto5.17(3)3.75(3)0.643(2)8475-1

Tampa Bay5.25(2)4.08(6)0.613(3)7566-1

Kansas City3.17(13)2.67(1)0.578(4)75750

Oakland4.54(7)3.85(4)0.575(5)76851

Baltimore4.58(6)4.42(7)0.517(6)66751

Seattle4.69(5)4.62(11)0.508(7)7667-1

Los Angeles5(4)4.92(12)0.507(8)76760

Boston4.23(9)4.54(9)0.468(9)67761

Minnesota3.42(11)3.67(2)0.468(10)66660

Cleveland4.5(8)5(13)0.452(11)57570

Texas4.08(10)4.58(10)0.447(12)57570

New York3.31(12)4(5)0.414(13)58671

Detroit2.75(14)6.5(14)0.172(14)2102100




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Chicago10359

Oakland10062

Toronto9567

Kansas City9567

Baltimore9567




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Chicago10656

Toronto10359

Tampa Bay9864

Kansas City9468

Oakland9468




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago6.4(1)4.2(6)0.684(1)32320

Minnesota4.4(9)3.4(2)0.616(2)32320

Boston5.33(5)4.17(5)0.611(3)42420

Oakland5.83(3)5(9)0.57(4)33512

Tampa Bay4.57(8)4.14(4)0.545(5)4334-1

New York3.71(11)3.43(3)0.537(6)4334-1

Toronto5(6)4.67(8)0.532(7)33330

Los Angeles6(2)5.67(12)0.526(8)33330

Seattle5.43(4)5.14(11)0.525(9)43430

Kansas City2.5(14)2.67(1)0.471(10)33330

Baltimore4(10)4.43(7)0.454(11)34340

Cleveland5(6)5.83(13)0.43(12)3324-1

Texas3.17(12)5(9)0.302(13)24240

Detroit3(13)6.5(14)0.195(14)15241

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