Monday, April 28, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 4/28/2008

So, I put together one little post, extolling the virtues of the team, praising them for winning in adverse circumstances, and they let it all go to their heads, losing the next five.

  • I suggested, Wednesday morning, that Jacoby Ellsbury probably was not as good as he'd played so far in the majors, not as an insult, just as a recognition of the incredible rate at which he'd started. Since then, he's 5/23 with no extra base hits and no walks, for a .217/.217/.217 line. Of course, that's not his real performance level, either, but small sample size effects take a long time to overcome.


  • After scoring five or more in 10 straight games, the Sox have scored fewer than five runs in four of the last five games (and only five in the fifth). As a team, they've hit 0.222/.290/.299/.590 over the past five games, averaging fewer than 3 runs per game.



  • For a 2-5 week, there actually was a lot of good news. Justin Masterson made his Major League debut and showed why the team is so high on him, with six outstanding innings. Craig Hansen came back, and despite the HR he allowed, looked like a Major Leaugue pitcher. He was so hyped, and got here so fast, that people already think of him as a bust, despite being only 24 years old, but given his off-season surgery to correct sleep apnea, and his early season performance, there are real reasons for optimism. Josh Beckett's dominance in Tampa showed that he's back, and Clay Buchholz pitched two outstanding games, allowing only two runs in 14 innings of work.



  • The bats, on the other hand, took the week off.



  • The bullpen cost them a win in Masterson's game. There are already rumblings and squawkings in various places about the pen being a hole. I'm not concerned. It may take a little while to get the middle section ironed out, but with Okajima and Papelbon, the pen won't ever be a serious hole on the team. And I'm willing to give everyone a bit of a pass this week, with the end of a three-week stretch without an off-day, and the flu ravaging the team. They will be fine.






AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/28/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Oakland4.62(6)3.54(1)0.619(1)161016100

Chicago5.29(1)4.08(3)0.616(2)1591410-1

Tampa Bay4.72(5)4.04(2)0.571(3)141114110

Los Angeles5(2)4.38(7)0.56(4)151116101

Cleveland4.6(7)4.2(6)0.542(5)14111213-2

Seattle4.5(8)4.19(4)0.532(6)14121214-2

Toronto4.42(9)4.19(4)0.524(7)14121115-3

Boston4.93(4)4.78(12)0.514(8)141315121

Baltimore4.32(12)4.4(8)0.492(9)121314112

New York4.38(10)4.58(10)0.48(10)121413131

Detroit5(2)5.46(13)0.46(11)12141115-1

Minnesota3.8(13)4.72(11)0.402(12)101511141

Kansas City3.28(14)4.52(9)0.357(13)91611142

Texas4.38(10)6.12(14)0.352(14)9179170




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Oakland10062

Los Angeles10062

Chicago9567

Tampa Bay9171

Baltimore9171




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland10062

Chicago9963

Tampa Bay9270

Los Angeles9270

Cleveland8676




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland6(2)2.5(1)0.832(1)51510

Detroit7.57(1)3.57(4)0.798(2)6152-1

Tampa Bay4.33(8)2.5(1)0.732(3)42602

Oakland4.83(5)2.83(3)0.727(4)42420

Los Angeles5.5(3)4.5(8)0.591(5)42420

New York4.83(5)4.33(6)0.55(6)33330

Seattle3.83(12)4(5)0.481(7)3324-1

Baltimore4(10)4.33(6)0.463(8)33330

Boston4.14(9)4.57(9)0.455(9)3425-1

Chicago4.83(5)5.33(11)0.455(9)33330

Toronto3(14)4.71(10)0.304(11)2516-1

Minnesota4(10)6.67(13)0.282(12)24240

Texas5(4)8.86(14)0.26(13)25250

Kansas City3.17(13)6(12)0.237(14)15241

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