Monday Pythagorean 4/28/2008

So, I put together one little post, extolling the virtues of the team, praising them for winning in adverse circumstances, and they let it all go to their heads, losing the next five.

• I suggested, Wednesday morning, that Jacoby Ellsbury probably was not as good as he'd played so far in the majors, not as an insult, just as a recognition of the incredible rate at which he'd started. Since then, he's 5/23 with no extra base hits and no walks, for a .217/.217/.217 line. Of course, that's not his real performance level, either, but small sample size effects take a long time to overcome.



• After scoring five or more in 10 straight games, the Sox have scored fewer than five runs in four of the last five games (and only five in the fifth). As a team, they've hit 0.222/.290/.299/.590 over the past five games, averaging fewer than 3 runs per game.




• For a 2-5 week, there actually was a lot of good news. Justin Masterson made his Major League debut and showed why the team is so high on him, with six outstanding innings. Craig Hansen came back, and despite the HR he allowed, looked like a Major Leaugue pitcher. He was so hyped, and got here so fast, that people already think of him as a bust, despite being only 24 years old, but given his off-season surgery to correct sleep apnea, and his early season performance, there are real reasons for optimism. Josh Beckett's dominance in Tampa showed that he's back, and Clay Buchholz pitched two outstanding games, allowing only two runs in 14 innings of work.




• The bats, on the other hand, took the week off.




• The bullpen cost them a win in Masterson's game. There are already rumblings and squawkings in various places about the pen being a hole. I'm not concerned. It may take a little while to get the middle section ironed out, but with Okajima and Papelbon, the pen won't ever be a serious hole on the team. And I'm willing to give everyone a bit of a pass this week, with the end of a three-week stretch without an off-day, and the flu ravaging the team. They will be fine.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/28/2008

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Oakland	4.62	(6)	3.54	(1)	0.619	(1)	16	10	16	10	0
Chicago	5.29	(1)	4.08	(3)	0.616	(2)	15	9	14	10	-1
Tampa Bay	4.72	(5)	4.04	(2)	0.571	(3)	14	11	14	11	0
Los Angeles	5	(2)	4.38	(7)	0.56	(4)	15	11	16	10	1
Cleveland	4.6	(7)	4.2	(6)	0.542	(5)	14	11	12	13	-2
Seattle	4.5	(8)	4.19	(4)	0.532	(6)	14	12	12	14	-2
Toronto	4.42	(9)	4.19	(4)	0.524	(7)	14	12	11	15	-3
Boston	4.93	(4)	4.78	(12)	0.514	(8)	14	13	15	12	1
Baltimore	4.32	(12)	4.4	(8)	0.492	(9)	12	13	14	11	2
New York	4.38	(10)	4.58	(10)	0.48	(10)	12	14	13	13	1
Detroit	5	(2)	5.46	(13)	0.46	(11)	12	14	11	15	-1
Minnesota	3.8	(13)	4.72	(11)	0.402	(12)	10	15	11	14	1
Kansas City	3.28	(14)	4.52	(9)	0.357	(13)	9	16	11	14	2
Texas	4.38	(10)	6.12	(14)	0.352	(14)	9	17	9	17	0

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Oakland	100	62
Los Angeles	100	62
Chicago	95	67
Tampa Bay	91	71
Baltimore	91	71

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Oakland	100	62
Chicago	99	63
Tampa Bay	92	70
Los Angeles	92	70
Cleveland	86	76

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Cleveland	6	(2)	2.5	(1)	0.832	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Detroit	7.57	(1)	3.57	(4)	0.798	(2)	6	1	5	2	-1
Tampa Bay	4.33	(8)	2.5	(1)	0.732	(3)	4	2	6	0	2
Oakland	4.83	(5)	2.83	(3)	0.727	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Los Angeles	5.5	(3)	4.5	(8)	0.591	(5)	4	2	4	2	0
New York	4.83	(5)	4.33	(6)	0.55	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
Seattle	3.83	(12)	4	(5)	0.481	(7)	3	3	2	4	-1
Baltimore	4	(10)	4.33	(6)	0.463	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Boston	4.14	(9)	4.57	(9)	0.455	(9)	3	4	2	5	-1
Chicago	4.83	(5)	5.33	(11)	0.455	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Toronto	3	(14)	4.71	(10)	0.304	(11)	2	5	1	6	-1
Minnesota	4	(10)	6.67	(13)	0.282	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Texas	5	(4)	8.86	(14)	0.26	(13)	2	5	2	5	0
Kansas City	3.17	(13)	6	(12)	0.237	(14)	1	5	2	4	1