Monday, May 05, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 5/5/2008

A much better week than the last one, as the Sox go 5-1, and the bats finally re-awaken.

  • The pitching was good-to-excellent all week. The offense was barely visible for three nights, and then good-to-excellent for the next three.


  • Once again, we look at the lessons that baseball has to teach us. Such as not overreacting to short streaks, which inevitably change. A week ago, the Red Sox were coming off a sweep by the Rays. This morning, they're coming off a sweep of the Rays. Last weekend, they scored 5 runs in a three-game series. This weekend, they scored five runs in the fourth inning on Friday night, and 26 for the three-game series.


  • Despite the disaster week offensively - they had a six game stretch in which they scored 8 runs total - they've still got the second-highest scoring offense in the league so far.


  • The pitching, on the other hand, has allowed many more runs than I expected. But here's something that's worth noting, again, about total runs scored and Pythagorean. Not all runs are the same. Losing a game 15-6 is no worse for your record than losing a game 1-0. And typically, the 15 runs in a bad loss aren't going to be given up by one of your high-leverage relievers. If you look at the 5 starters and the top relievers (Papelbon and Okajima), those seven pitchers have allowed 81 ER in 215 2/3 innings, an ERA of 3.38. The rest of the pitchers have allowed 53 ER in 76 1/3 innings, an ERA of 6.25. Manny Delcarmen's been awful, allowing 10 runs in 12 1/2 innings. Mike Timlin's allowed 9 runs in 6 1/3 innings. Julian Tavarez has allowed 8 runs in 10 1/3 innings. Bryan Corey has allowed 7 runs in 6 innings. I will guarantee that the middle of the bullpen will be fixed, with some of those pitchers and some others, before the season is over. In the meantime, they're getting good-to-great starting pitching nearly every night, and when it's close and late, they've got two trustworthy relievers to finish games. They're outperforming their Pythagorean, and it may well continue.


  • The Red Sox have built a three-game lead in the AL East. Obviously, that's not very big with 130 games to go. Have they taken a lead that they'll hold the rest of the way? Too early to say. But I will say this - I believed when the season started that the Red Sox were the best team in the East, if not the best team in the AL, and it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't spend any more time out of first.



NB: Next week's report will be late and short. I'm leaving for Cardiff on Wednesday and will be offline until the following Tuesday. I will put up the numbers Tuesday night or Wednesday, but I probably won't have much commentary.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/5/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Oakland4.82(4)3.67(2)0.622(1)21121914-2

Chicago4.63(6)3.97(3)0.571(2)17121415-3

Boston4.91(2)4.33(5)0.557(3)181520132

Toronto4.06(13)3.66(1)0.548(4)18141517-3

Tampa Bay4.65(5)4.42(10)0.523(5)161516150

Los Angeles4.85(3)4.67(12)0.517(6)171620133

Cleveland4.26(9)4.13(4)0.514(7)16151417-2

New York4.48(7)4.39(7)0.509(8)171617160

Minnesota4.13(11)4.33(5)0.478(9)141616142

Seattle4.16(10)4.41(8)0.473(10)15171319-2

Baltimore4.09(12)4.41(8)0.466(11)141716152

Detroit4.94(1)5.44(13)0.456(12)15171418-1

Kansas City3.57(14)4.43(11)0.402(13)121814162

Texas4.47(8)5.84(14)0.38(14)122013191




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9864

Los Angeles9864

Oakland9369

Minnesota8676

Tampa Bay8478




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland9963

Boston9270

Chicago9072

Los Angeles8775

Toronto8676




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Minnesota5.8(1)2.4(3)0.834(1)41501

Boston4.83(5)2.33(2)0.791(2)51510

Toronto2.5(13)1.33(1)0.76(3)5142-1

Oakland5.57(2)4.14(8)0.632(4)4334-1

New York4.86(4)3.71(5)0.62(5)43430

Kansas City5(3)4(7)0.601(6)32320

Texas4.83(5)4.67(10)0.516(7)33421

Detroit4.67(7)5.33(11)0.439(8)33330

Los Angeles4.29(9)5.71(13)0.371(9)34431

Baltimore3.29(10)4.43(9)0.367(10)3424-1

Cleveland2.83(11)3.83(6)0.365(11)24240

Tampa Bay4.33(8)6(14)0.355(12)24240

Chicago2(14)3.5(4)0.264(13)2405-2

Seattle2.67(12)5.33(11)0.22(14)15150

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