Friday, June 10, 2005

Mediocy

Looking at some idiotic speculation in USA Today. It's tough to tell who wrote it, because there are a couple of bylines. The article is Bob Nightengale's Major League Report, but at the top there's a picture of Toronto infielder Shea Hillenbrand, with the following caption:
Shea Hillenbrand hit 33 homers in two-plus seasons with the Red Sox from 2001-03. Now they might want him back again.
By Tom DiPace, Sports Weekly

In any event, whether it's Tom DiPace or Bob Nightengale, it's stupid speculation. Everyone gets rumors, but it's important to separate the ones that make sense from the ones that don't. This one doesn't...

Certainly, the Red Sox, who have their eyes open for a corner infielder, could use Hillenbrand.

For what? Is he likely to be better between now and the end of the season than Kevin Millar or Bill Mueller or John Olerud or Kevin Youkilis or Roberto Petagine? I don't think so.
They traded him two years ago for Diamondbacks closer Byung-Hyun Kim. While Kim became a $10 million bust, Hillenbrand quietly hit .310 with 15 homers and 80 RBI for a dreadful Diamondbacks team.

Let's re-phrase that to match reality, shall we?

"They traded him two years ago for Diamondbacks closer Byung-Hyun Kim. While Kim stabilized the Red Sox bullpen and enabled them to reach the post-season, Hillenbrand quietly hit .267/.302/.482 for for a dreadful Diamondbacks team. Part of the reason they were dreadful, is because they were getting .267/.302/.482 from one of their corner infield spots. Hillenbrand's absence, on the other hand, opened up playing time for Bill Mueller (.326/.398/.540) and David Ortiz (.288/.369/.592). After Hillenbrand left, the Red Sox improved both their runs/game and their runs allowed/game as they went on to win the AL Wild Card and make it to the 7th game of the 2003 ALCS."

You don't think the Red Sox would like to reverse that trade?

No, I sure don't. They may wish they hadn't given Kim that contract extension after the 2003 season, but I think that they'd make that trade every day of the week and twice on Sunday...
Red Sox first baseman Kevin Millar is hitting .255 with four homers and 26 RBI. Third baseman Bill Mueller is hitting .280, but he has only two homers and 17 RBI. Meanwhile, Hillenbrand, playing third base for the injured Corey Koskie, has a career-high .360 on-base percentage with six homers and 27 RBI while committing just two errors.

That couldn't possibly be mis-leading in any way, could it? Like if maybe, just maybe, Hillenbrand had a spectacular April, and then reverted to form? No history of that, is there?



Year-to-date
BAOBASPctOPSHR

Shea Hillenbrand0.3030.3590.4340.7936

Bill Mueller0.2710.3960.3490.7452

Mark Bellhorn0.2470.360.3650.7252

Kevin Millar0.2550.3410.3750.7164




Since May 1
BAOBASPctOPSHR

Bill Mueller0.2790.3960.3690.7652

Mark Bellhorn0.2590.3820.370.7522

Kevin Millar0.2560.3020.4190.7214

Shea Hillenbrand0.2340.3120.3590.6714


Well golly, gee, would you look at that. Both of the Red Sox corner infielders, and the 2nd baseman, have been better than Hillenbrand since May 1. Who'd'a thunk it? I mean, he's only done it (started hot and reverted) in every freakin' year of his career...

"I have no hard feelings for the Red Sox or (general manager) Theo Epstein," Hillenbrand says.

Gosh, that's good to know, Shea. People might have been concerned about that, like when you called him a "faggot" on a radio station.
"Theo is a good person. They needed a closer and were trying to help their team, and the Diamondbacks gave me the opportunity to play every day. I know it was rough last year, but that doesn't mean you quit. You go out and play for pride."

And contracts.
The Blue Jays have yet to put Hillenbrand on the trade block. They're still in the race, so it's senseless now. They might even try to keep him for next season. But just like any team that might be out of it in seven weeks, it's stupid not to listen.

"Don't get me wrong, I want to keep him, but he looks like a Red Sox, doesn't he?" Blue Jays manager John Gibbons says.

Looks like a Red Sox? In what way? The Red Sox are built on reaching base safely. Hillenbrand's career OBP is .326. The Sox' team OBP is currently .358. The Red Sox work the count, with a team P/PA of 3.85. Hillenbrand's 3.34 is even below his own career mark of 3.41.
"I love the guy. I want him here.

I want him there, too. So, I suspect, does Theo Epstein.
He's a great leader for us. Everything he does is intense."

Yeah. Like all those intense swings at low, outside pitches.
Gibbons didn't mean Hillenbrand would be traded to the Red Sox, but that he looked like a Red Sox player.

"I always knew he could hit, but I didn't know he could play defense so well," Gibbons says. "Really, I don't know where we'd be without him."

Right now? Probably a couple games further back. At the end of the year? Maybe a little bit better off...
Hillenbrand, who still has a home in the Phoenix area, is just one of perhaps a dozen players who could have a significant impact on a playoff race this fall. You're going to hear his name in places like Boston, New York, Baltimore, Texas, and anywhere else that needs a strong corner infielder.

"Strong corner infielder"... Right. His .793 OPS (which is that high because he was spectacular in April, though he's been putrid since) is 24th among Major League 1st basemen. It's 22nd among Major League 3rd basemen. Anyone looking for a "strong corner infielder" would be well advised to look elsewhere...

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