Red Sox draft - wrap-up

Major League Baseball has concluded its "First Year Player Draft". I'm going to "evaluate" the Red Sox effort.

If it's ridiculous to grade the NFL draft before 3 years have passed, it's beyond comical to grade what a Major League team does on draft day, at least in terms of specifics. The number of people in the world who have enough information to distinguish between Ismael Casillas and Kirby Yates is very small, and I'm certainly not one of them.

What I've done is compile is a summary of the Boston Red Sox draft, as well as a comparison of some aspects of it to their drafts the last two years. (All player comments are from MLB.com - I've never heard of any of these guys, and don't expect to hear from many of them ever again...) The question isn't "how did they do," because we won't know that for 10 years, but rather "what can we determine about their philosophy from what we can see that they did?"

3-Year Draft profile

Rd	Pick	Player	School	Pos	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB	Class	Age
1	23	Jacoby Ellsbury	Oregon St U	CF	L/L	6'1"	185	9/11/1983	4YR	21
	COMMENT: Medium frame. Live, lean, athletic build. Pure athletic. Leadoff CF profile w/ impact speed both ways. Contact hitter w/ a level, compact swing. Uses the whole field. Gap to gap power.
1	26	Craig Hansen	St Johns U	RHP	R/R	6'6"	210	11/15/1983	4YR	21
	COMMENT: Body tapers down from high, extra-wide, slant shoulders. Low elbow in delivery causes deception. Aggressive approach, challenges. Two power pitches. Explosive FB life, 93-94 mph. Sliders 85 mph. Legit weapon vs. RHH. Throws strikes. Comes right at you.
1a	42	Clay Buchholz	Angelina Col	RHP	L/R	6'3"	190	8/14/1984	JR	20
	COMMENT: Tall, lean, athletic body. Long arms. Slender hips. Similar to Gil Meche. Above avg velocity FB, quick, loose arm. Hard, sluvry-slider w/ 3/4 depth. Slower 3/4 break CB. Throws straight change-up. Aggressive approach. Attacks hitters and challenges w/ FB.
1a	45	Jed Lowrie	Stanford U	2B	S/R	6'0"	180	4/17/1984	4YR	21
	COMMENT: Body is athletic, lean and slender. Confident switch-hitter w/ a good eye. Sound approach. Aggressive in the zone. Hits to all fields. Smooth actions on defense, makes plays in the hole. Accurate, average arm.
1a	47	Michael Bowden	Waubonsie Valley HS	RHP	R/R	6'3"	215	9/9/1986	HS	18
	COMMENT: Large, big boned frame. Broad shoulders. Long arms. Similar to Roger Clemens. Plus FB velocity, occasional heavy w/ small sink & tail. Sharp, late bite, 12-6 CB. Around plate w/ four pitches. Good presence. Power arm & body w/ three projectable plus pitches.
2	57	Jonathan Egan	Cross Creek HS	C	R/R	6'4"	210	10/12/1986	HS	18
	COMMENT: Same body type as fmr ex-ML Eddie Taubensee. Serious raw power, especially the opposite way. Flashes short stroke, generates bat speed w/ overall brute strength. Aptitude as receiver behind plate.
4	138	William Blue	Morro Bay HS	RHP	R/R	6'2"	215	4/5/1987	HS	18
5	168	Reid Engel	Lewis-Palmer HS	CF	L/R	6'2"	175	5/7/1987	HS	18
6	198	Jeffrey Corsaletti	U Florida	CF	L/R	6'0"	190	2/22/1983	4YR	22
	COMMENT: Medium, well proportioned build. Similar to Mark Kotsay. Short compact stroke. Power alley type. Has the desire and know-how for game.
7	228	Yahmed Yema	Florida International U	RF	L/L	6'0"	195	9/3/1984	4YR	20
	COMMENT: Medium build. Athletic. Strength throughout frame. Round shoulders. Similar to Johnny Damon. Generates bat speed through the zone. Gap-to-gap, line-drive hitter. Runs well 1st to 3rd. Soft hands. Good glove actions. Arm strength w/ carry on throws. Hard worker.
8	258	James Zink	Everett CC	RHP	R/R	6'2"	195	5/6/1985	JR	20
	COMMENT: Tall frame. Well proportioned. Loose, supple, athletic build. Built like Ryan Dempster. Loose, quick arm from deceptive, crossfire delivery. Good extension in follow through. Sustains avg FB velocity w/ late two-seam tail. Works fast. Fiery competitor. Lean, athletic RHP w/ loose arm.
9	288	Mark Wagner	UC Irvine	C	R/R	6'1"	205	6/11/1984	4YR	20
	COMMENT: Strong, compact. Durable physique. Line drive hitter w/ a short, quick, compact swing. Good bat control. Sets up well behind the plate. Sure hands. Makes throws w/ compact arm action and quick release.
10	318	Kevin Guyette	U Arizona	RHP	R/R	6'4"	215	12/3/1982	4YR	22
11	348	Ismael Casillas	Benedictine Col	RHP	R/R	6'3"	0	12/8/1982	4YR	22
	COMMENT: Tall, strong frame. Broad shoulders. FB arm side run, occasional sink, most 88-90. Aggressive, not afraid to pitch inside. Good feel for change-up, sinks, fades. Throws strikes. Competes. Good makeup.
12	378	Kyle Fernandes	Massasoit CC	LHP	L/L	6'0"	185	9/12/1985	JR	19
13	408	Jay Johnson	Xavier U	CF	R/R	6'2"	205	12/19/1982	4YR	22
14	438	Pedro Alvarez	Horace Mann School	SS	L/R	6'2"	205	2/6/1987	HS	18
	COMMENT: Good growth potential. Similar to Bobby Bonilla. Quick power stroke to all fields. Ball jumps off bat. Easy infield actions. Loose, strong throws. Solid hands and instincts. Loves to play.
15	468	Patrick Thomas	Jeffersonville HS	RHP	R/R	6'3"	190	9/29/1986	HS	18
16	498	Matthew Mercurio	Florida Southern Col	3B	R/R	6'2"	180	11/26/1982	4YR	22
	COMMENT: Versatile infielder. Similar to Rich Aurillia. Makes consistent contact w/ good bat speed, drives the ball to the gaps. Accurate arm. A real gamer, will do whatever is best for the team.
17	528	Dominic Ramos	Texas St U	SS	R/R	5'10"	175	3/10/1983	4YR	22
18	558	Nick Criaris	St Peters Prep School	C	L/R	6'2"	220	6/16/1987	HS	17
19	588	James Baxter	Villanova U	LHP	L/L	6'0"	195	8/8/1993	4YR	11
20	618	Charles Blackmon	YOUNG HARRIS COL	LHP	L/L	6'2"	185	7/1/1986	4YR	18
21	648	Robert Johnson	Navarro Col	RHP	R/R	6'3"	205	4/12/1985	JR	20
22	678	Orvil Aviles	Fernando Callejo HS	LHP	L/L	6'4"	0	11/5/1987	HS	17
23	708	Carl Lipsey	Jackson St U	2B	R/R	5'10"	175	6/5/1983	4YR	22
24	738	Jason Twomley	U Mass Amherst	CF	L/L	6'0"	215	9/20/1982	4YR	22
25	768	Ricardo Sanchez	Barry U	C	R/R	5'11"	215	9/6/1982	4YR	22
26	798	Kirby Yates	Kauai HS	RHP	L/R	5'10"	170	3/25/1987	HS	18
	COMMENT: Mid size, compact, athletic frame. Rounded shoulders. Similar to David Cone. Quick arm. Sound mechanics. Fluid, compact delivery w/ easy arm action. Balanced w/ good lower body drive. Better movement on two-seam FB. Occasional sharp, late CB. Brother Tyler pitches in Mets organization.
27	828	Matthew Hancock	Oral Roberts U	LHP	L/L	6'3"	195	10/1/1982	4YR	22
	COMMENT: Large, tall, well proportioned frame. Similar to Mark Buehrle. Quick arm, deceptive motion. Slider is best pitch, short, quick sweep in strike zone. Shows start of strong change-up, will be effective. Works fast, tough on LHH.
28	858	Ryan Hinson	Northwestern HS	LHP	L/L	6'3"	220	5/12/1987	HS	18
29	888	Christopher Jones	Indiana St U	RHP	R/R	6'4"	205	6/9/1984	4YR	20
30	918	Ryan Colvin	Carroll HS	RHP	R/R	6'2"	170	4/12/1987	HC	18
31	948	Luis Exposito	Champagnat Catholic Schoo	C	R/R	6'3"	210	1/20/1987	HS	18
	COMMENT: Large build. Strength throughout. Similar to Jorge Fabregas. Bat speed though hitting zone. Gap to gap hitter. Strong arm, throws have on-line carry. Blocks well, keeps ball in front.
32	978	Jeffrey Natale	Trinity Col	2B	R/R	5'9"	170	8/24/1982	4YR	22
33	1008	John Hester	Stanford U	C	R/R	6'4"	210	9/14/1983	4YR	21
	COMMENT: Big, durable kid. Strong throughout. Short, compact stroke and stays behind the ball. Goes gap-to-gap w/ hits and has some pull power. Receives and frames pitches well and is both quick and agile behind the plate. Great times to 2B thanks to a quick transfer and release.
34	1038	Allan Dykstra	Rancho Bernardo HS	1B	L/R	6'6"	212	5/21/1987	HS	18
35	1068	Jason Determann	Louisiana St U	LHP	R/L	5'9"	170	5/29/1983	4YR	22
36	1098	Mark McClure	Hillsborough HS	RHP	R/R	6'8"	205	6/24/1987	HS	17
37	1128	Jason Schnitzer	Las Alamitos HS	RHP	R/R	6'2"	185	9/8/1986	HS	18
38	1158	Levi Tapia	Ralston Valley HS	C	R/R	5'10"	200	4/21/1987	HS	18
39	1187	Billy Bell	Nicholls St U	CF	L/R	6'0"	195	10/9/1982	4YR	22
40	1216	Blake Maxwell	Methodist Col	RHP	R/R	6'5"	255	8/1/1984	4YR	20
41	1245	Edward Degerman	Rice U	RHP	R/R	6'4"	205	9/14/1983	4YR	21
42	1274	Miguel Alicea	Manuela Toro HS	RF	R/R	6'0"	0	1/2/1987	HS	18
	COMMENT: Medium, well proportioned frame. Athletic, durable body. Bat speed through zone in level swing. Occasional lift w/ extension to hit for power. Can hit to opposite field. Good instincts and reactions in OF. Arm strength, carry, accurate, loose & proper action. No fear at plate.
43	1303	Jason Castro	Castro Valley HS	C	L/R	6'3"	195	6/18/1987	HS	17
44	1332	Christopher Garcia	Xaverian HS	1B	L/R	6'2"	220	11/25/1987	HS	17
45	1361	James Bamberg	Tallahassee CC	C	R/R	5'11"	200	8/20/1985	JR	19
46	1390	Terry Large	U Alabama Tuscaloosa	RHP	R/R	6'3"	210	5/28/1983	4YR	22
47	1418	Alex Wolfe	Timpanogos HS	C	L/R	6'0"	215	4/9/1987	HS	18
48	1446	Matthew Sheely	Palm Beach Gardens HS	CF	R/R	5'7"	165	8/30/1986	HS	18
49	1473	Erik Turgeon	Dunedin HS	RHP	R/R	6'0"	170	3/25/1987	HS	18
	COMMENT: Medium frame. Loose lanky body. Similar to Tim Hudson. Avg FB, mostly 88 w/ small tailing action when down in the zone. Good athlete. Raw arm strength.
50	1500	Colin Arnold	Kings Academy	LF	L/L	6'2"	175	8/16/1987	HS	17
	COMMENT: Medium build similar to a young Chipper Jones. Good bat speed generates line drives to all fields, power to center and pull. Solid glove, carry on throws. Also can play 1B. Good base runner.

To break things down a little bit, the following table looks at draft picks by position, age and school level for the last 3 years.

3-Year Draft profile

	2003	2004	2005	Total
By position:
LHP	8	11	7	26
RHP	16	14	18	48
C	7	4	10	21
1B	0	5	2	7
2B	1	0	3	4
3B	0	3	1	4
SS	6	5	2	13
LF	4	0	1	5
CF	7	3	7	17
RF	1	1	2	4
OF	2	3	0	5
Position Summary:
Pitchers	24	25	25	74
Catchers	7	4	10	21
Middle Infielders	7	5	5	17
Center Fielders	7	3	7	17
Corner Outfielders	7	4	3	14
Corner Infielders	0	8	3	11
By school level:
4YR	27	30	25	82
HS	14	13	23	50
JUCO	11	6	5	22
Average Age
	20.5	20.7	19.9

• They take more pitchers than anything else. This is not surprising. The 25-man roster generally has 11 to 12 pitchers, either 44% or 48% of the roster spots. They've drafted pitchers with 48% of their picks over the last 3 years, with a low of 46.2% in 2003 and a high of 51.0% in 2004. Not surprising at all.



• 35% of the pitchers have been left-handed. 27% of the pitchers in the Majors last year were left-handed, so this might mean that there's been an exceptional talent pool of lefties to choose from or, more likely (IMO), that they (and probably everyone else) are willing to "reach" for a left-hander that might have Major League potential. All else being equal, the left-hander gets drafted where the right-hander gets passed over for another catcher.



• Catchers are very valuable. They're very hard to come by. There are also only 2 of them on your roster, so it's a little surprising to see how many they've taken. I suspect that a lot of these guys are "projectable" hitters, guys who are going to get to pro ball and get moved to 3B or 1B, or left-field, or even, eventually, DH.



• Speaking of 3B, 1B and left-field - they don't draft the guys playing those positions. Not often, anyway. Again, it makes sense. The best athletes at the lower levels get moved to SS or CF or pitcher. That's where the pro talent ends up playing in high school and college, and those are the positions that get drafted.



• Looking at this list, I think the following is an approximate truism:
  
  
  
  • Major League center-fielders play center field in college and high school.
  
  
  • Major League right-fielders play center field in college and high school.
  
  
  • Major League left-fielders play center field (or catcher) in college and high school.



• Major League short-stops play short-stop in college. So do Major League 2nd basemen.



• Rany Jazayerli has run an excellent series of articles over the last month examining the draft from a historical perspective, what's the right way to approach it and what isn't. One of the things that has changed since the early 1980s, is that College players no longer have the advantage over high school players that they once did. Rany offered some explanations for this, the big one likely being that signing bonuses finally increased to the point where it was a significantly more compelling reason for a high school player to sign as opposed to attending college. And the Major Leagues also started a scholarship program to help players that wanted to go back to school later. To quote Rany,
  

  
  it might not be that major league organizations started doing a better job of identifying high-school talent. They simply were doing a better job of convincing those players to sign. Not only did this increase the pool of high-school players in the professional ranks, but it meant that college programs had less talent to draw on, and the pool of collegiate talent that was draftable three years later was thinned out.

  
  (I'm not going to link that because it's a subscriber-only article. If you're already a BP subscriber, you've probably already read it [and if you haven't, you should], and if you aren't, the link won't do you any good.)
  
  In any event, while the Red Sox had a very college-heavy draft 2 years-ago, they picked a lot more high school players, and picked them a lot earlier, than they'd done the past couple of years. The question that people are going to ask is this - does this represent a change in draft philosophy for the Red Sox?
  
  And the answer is, not necessarily.
  
  One of the "market inefficiencies" that Moneyball publicized was the tendency of teams to draft high school athletes while ignoring production from older, more mature players in college. Two years ago, a team that was aware of those inefficiencies, and there may have only been a few, was able to take a lot of college players that other teams, focused on "high-ceiling, 5-tools" high school players wouldn't have seen.
  
  One of the results of heavy publicity, however, is that market inefficiencies tend to disappear. When it becomes public knowledge that college players are being "under-drafted", a big shining spotlight appears. All of sudden, the college players that were being looked at by 15 teams are being looked at by 30. And then, the high school players are suddenly under-valued.
  
  I don't know that this is what's happened. But I suspect that it is. I think that the Red Sox are looking for value, wherever they can find it. In 2003, they found it in 4-year colleges. In 2004, it was even more focused on the 4-year colleges. This year, for whatever reason, they found a lot more of it in the high school ranks.