Monday Pythagorean report

Through the games of 6/5/2005, the AL Standings, with runs scored and allowed, and projected records:

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/6/2005

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	5.65	(1)	4.53	(7)	0.6	(1)	33	22	32	23	-1
Baltimore	5.43	(3)	4.41	(6)	0.594	(2)	33	23	34	22	1
Minnesota	4.6	(8)	3.75	(1)	0.593	(3)	33	22	33	22	0
Chicago	4.5	(9)	3.8	(2)	0.576	(4)	32	24	37	19	5
Anaheim	4.61	(7)	4.07	(3)	0.556	(5)	31	25	32	24	1
Boston	5.46	(2)	4.98	(10)	0.542	(6)	30	26	31	25	1
Toronto	4.74	(5)	4.39	(5)	0.535	(7)	31	26	29	28	-2
New York	5.2	(4)	5.2	(12)	0.5	(8)	28	28	28	28	0
Detroit	4.46	(10)	4.54	(8)	0.492	(9)	27	27	26	28	-1
Cleveland	4	(14)	4.11	(4)	0.488	(10)	27	28	26	29	-1
Seattle	4.24	(11)	4.71	(9)	0.452	(11)	25	30	24	31	-1
Oakland	4.21	(12)	5	(11)	0.422	(12)	24	32	23	33	-1
Tampa Bay	4.65	(6)	5.86	(14)	0.396	(13)	23	34	20	37	-3
Kansas City	4.11	(13)	5.71	(13)	0.353	(14)	20	36	17	39	-3

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Chicago	107	55
Baltimore	98	64
Minnesota	97	65
Texas	94	68
Anaheim	93	69

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Chicago	98	64
Baltimore	97	65
Texas	96	66
Minnesota	96	66
Anaheim	91	71

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Oakland	7.14	(1)	3.14	(1)	0.818	(1)	6	1	6	1	0
Minnesota	5.17	(6)	3.17	(2)	0.71	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Baltimore	6.43	(3)	4.14	(3)	0.691	(3)	5	2	4	3	-1
Texas	6.67	(2)	4.33	(4)	0.687	(4)	4	2	3	3	-1
Anaheim	6.33	(4)	6	(11)	0.525	(5)	3	3	2	4	-1
Chicago	5.5	(5)	5.5	(10)	0.5	(6)	3	3	4	2	1
Seattle	4.5	(9)	4.67	(5)	0.483	(7)	3	3	4	2	1
Kansas City	4.17	(10)	4.83	(6)	0.433	(8)	3	3	4	2	1
Cleveland	4	(11)	4.83	(6)	0.414	(9)	2	4	2	4	0
Boston	4.86	(7)	6	(11)	0.405	(10)	3	4	4	3	1
Toronto	3.86	(12)	5.43	(9)	0.349	(11)	2	5	2	5	0
Detroit	4.67	(8)	6.67	(14)	0.342	(12)	2	4	3	3	1
Tampa Bay	3.83	(13)	6.5	(13)	0.276	(13)	2	4	1	5	-1
New York	2.67	(14)	5.17	(8)	0.23	(14)	1	5	1	5	0

Not a great week for the Red Sox. 4-3 against 2 first place teams, but there was an opportunity to make up ground against the team that they're trailing, and they split with them. They ended up 3 games out, just where they started the week. Could have been worse, should have been better...

• The 3 losses came by virtue of 2 bad starting pitching performances and 1 bullpen meltdown.



• It's an old cliche that "pitching wins games", that "pitching's 90% of the game." It's also hogwash. But this week, it looked true in Boston. In the four wins, they allowed no more than 4 runs. In the three losses, they allowed 8 or more.



• Now that I've called for Kevin Millar to be executed, or at least replaced, I seem to have awoken him again, just as I did last year. OK, not really. He did hit 2 HR on Saturday, but he's done nothing else in the week and a half since I pointed out how bad he's been.



• Boston At St. Louis. Where have I seen that before?
  
  Not only have each of Boston's four pro sports teams won championships (which is something that not every city can say), they've each done so while beating St. Louis teams in the finals.
  
  1957 - Boston Celtics beat St. Louis Hawks in the NBA Finals
  1970 - Boston Bruins beat St. Louis Blues in the Stanley Cup Finals
  2002 - New England (formerly Boston) Patriots beat St. Louis Rams in the Super Bowl
  2004 - Boston Red Sox beat St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series.