David Wells again

I wrote last week about the difference between David Wells mediocre stat-line (now 4-4, 5.07) and how well he's actually pitched. The disparity is even more stark this morning after another vintage Wells effort in St. Louis. As good as ERA is as a pitching evaluation statistic, there can be problems with it. If a pitcher gives up a disproportionate number of runs in a couple of outings, he can cost his team those games, but he can also skew his ERA such that his line for the season looks worse than it actually is.

That's what's happened with David Wells. After a couple of pretty effective performances, he was pitching against Baltimore on April 25 when he hurt his foot. And remained in the game, to give up 6 ER in only 3 2/3 innings. He returned on May 18 against Oakland, and apparently wasn't quite ready to return, as he gave up 7 ER in only 1 1/3 innings. In those two games, he gave up 13 ER in only 5 innings, and cost his team any realistic chances of winning. In his other 8 starts, however, he's given up only 21 ER in 60 1/3 innings. He's pitched into the 7th in 7 of those 8, and kept the Red Sox in the game. In other words, he's been exactly the pitcher they hoped they'd signed. But his ERA for the season is still awful, largely on strength of those two games. He's given up nearly 40% of his ER on the season in only 2 of his 10 starts, and less than 10% of his innings pitched. His ERA in his "healthy" starts would rank him 15th in the AL.

David Wells

	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	IP/G	ER	ERA	WHIP
"Total"	10	4	4	60.33	71	34	34	9	4	30	6.03	34	5.07	1.24
"Hurt"	2	0	2	5	17	13	13	2	1	4	2.5	13	23.4	3.6
"Healthy"	8	4	2	55.33	54	21	21	7	3	26	6.92	21	3.42	1.03

Obviously, we don't throw those starts out. He made them, and they hurt the team. But the big picture is that he's done what they wanted him to do when he's been healthy. And if the foot was a fluke, there's no reason not to think that he's more likely to stay healthy than get hurt again. Yes, he's a 42-year old overweight pitcher with a bad back, but he's been overweight with a bad back for 15 years, and started 30+ games in 8 of the last 9 years. This is still a very effective Major League pitcher. And it looks like a great signing.