Friday, October 11, 2013

MLB Championship Series


Boston vs. Detroit:

The Bill James Playoff Predictor points to the Tigers.

1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (8 - BOS)
2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (3 - BOS)
3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (14 - DET)
4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (12 - BOS)
5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (10 - BOS)
6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (8 - BOS)
7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (8 - DET)
8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (7 - BOS)
9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (7 - BOS)
10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (19 - DET)
11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (15 - DET)
12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or went further(12 - DET)
13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (12 - DET)

Total - DET 80, BOS 55


I think I noted earlier that Baseball Prospectus' third-order winning percentage had the Detroit Tigers as the best team in baseball this year.  Despite that, the Red Sox finished with more runs scored and four more wins.

Season offense:
Red Sox (.277/.349/.446/.795, 878.86 runs created, 5.09 RC/25 outs)
Tigers (.283/.346/.434/.780, 838.31 runs created, 4.81 RC/25 outs)
Playoff Roster:
Red Sox (.280/.354/.457/.811, 814.15 runs created, 5.28 RC/25 outs)
Tigers (.285/.349/.439/.788, 822.13 runs created, 4.92 RC/25 outs)
So the Red Sox had a better offense. The Tigers strength is obviously in the pitching staff, with Scherzer and Verlander and Sanchez and Fister.  It helps the Red Sox that Verlander pitched last night, so they won't see him in Boston for game 1 or 2.  And Boston's a better defensive team, particularly with Peralta on the field.

My prediction:  Boston in 6




St. Louis vs. Los Angeles:

1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (10 - STL)
2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (3 - STL)
3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (14 - LAD)
4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (12 - STL)
5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (10 - LAD)
6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (8 - LAD)
7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (8 - STL)
8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (7 - STL)
9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (7 - LAD)
10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (19 - LAD)
11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (15 - LAD)
12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or went further(12 - STL)
13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (12 - LAD)

Total - LAD 85, STL 52

It feels like the Red Sox and Dodgers have been on a collision course all year.

My prediction:  Los Angeles in 6

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