"What does three up, three down mean to you, airman?"
"The end of an inning?"
- After what seems like several mediocre weeks in a row, we wake up this morning to see that the Boston Red Sox have fallen to ... first place in the AL East. And the American League as a whole. That's right - despite a stretch that's felt like a bit of a struggle, the Red Sox still have the best record in the AL.
- A big part of the reason that it's felt like a struggle, of course, is not due to Boston's performance, but Tampa's. It's hard not to "hear the footsteps" as the lead keeps shrinking, but this hasn't been a case of the Red Sox failing to perform but of the Rays having an unbelievable stretch. "Maddon magic," if you will.
- This was Tampa's worst week in a while, as they lost twice. It's the only time during the month of July that they've actually lost 2 games in a calendar (Monday->Sunday) week, having gone 6-1, 6-1 and 3-0 in the last three.
- That rainout on Thursday was the game of the Tampa series that appeared to have the best pitching matchup from the Red Sox' point-of-view. And because of the way that it got rescheduled, not only do the Red Sox not get to get the Rays at a time when they've cooled off, they get David Price again tonight, for the second time in a week.
- The big off-the-field news of the week was the Dustin Pedroia contract extension. The Red Sox and Pedroia agreed on a $100 million deal covering 2015-2021. That's about $14 million per year for his age 31-37 seasons. My take? I love it. Pedroia (very likely) gives up some money in 2015-2019 but takes the security of a $100 million deal. The Red Sox give up a little roster flexibility, and commit to pay him for the next nine years, but get their best and most important player under control for essentially his entire career at a very reasonable price. Good deal for both sides. I love it.
- It's about time for him to break out of his current slump, though. He's had a very poor (.205/.283/.273/.556) month of July.
- A hot start (and his was very hot) can hide a precipitous decline for a while, and Jose Iglesias is hitting .200/.244/.213/.457 in July. Is it time to bring Mr. Middlebrooks back up?
- And I'm starting to feel a sense of deja vu, as I wonder - are we going to spend the next three years replaying the Alex Gonzalez argument/debate/discussion, with only the name changed? Or will Iglesias have enough hot stretches to keep his overall numbers productive and respectable?
- Red Sox Player of the Week - Stop me if you've heard this before, but ... David Ortiz (.450/.522/.600/1.122).
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - And just when you give up on thinking of him as an ace, Jon Lester has a week like this - two starts, 13-plus innings, two runs, including a 7 inning shutout in Baltimore yesterday that moves Boston back into first place.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/29/2013
| | | | | | | Projected | Actual | | |
|---|
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck | |
|---|
| Detroit | 5.28 | (1) | 4.11 | (6) | 0.613 | (1) | 64 | 40 | 59 | 45 | -5 | |
| Boston | 5.06 | (2) | 4.19 | (7) | 0.585 | (2) | 62 | 44 | 63 | 43 | 1 | |
| Tampa Bay | 4.68 | (5) | 3.99 | (4) | 0.572 | (3) | 60 | 45 | 62 | 43 | 2 | |
| Oakland | 4.48 | (8) | 3.84 | (1) | 0.57 | (4) | 60 | 45 | 62 | 43 | 2 | |
| Cleveland | 4.78 | (3) | 4.34 | (8) | 0.544 | (5) | 57 | 47 | 56 | 48 | -1 | |
| Baltimore | 4.72 | (4) | 4.43 | (10) | 0.528 | (6) | 56 | 50 | 58 | 48 | 2 | |
| Texas | 4.15 | (9) | 4.08 | (5) | 0.508 | (7) | 53 | 52 | 56 | 49 | 3 | |
| Kansas City | 3.95 | (12) | 3.96 | (3) | 0.499 | (8) | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 0 | |
| NY Yankees | 3.88 | (13) | 3.95 | (2) | 0.491 | (9) | 52 | 53 | 55 | 50 | 3 | |
| LA Angels | 4.57 | (7) | 4.72 | (13) | 0.485 | (10) | 50 | 53 | 48 | 55 | -2 | |
| Toronto | 4.62 | (6) | 4.84 | (14) | 0.479 | (11) | 50 | 54 | 48 | 56 | -2 | |
| Seattle | 4.1 | (11) | 4.55 | (11) | 0.452 | (12) | 47 | 58 | 50 | 55 | 3 | |
| Minnesota | 4.13 | (10) | 4.61 | (12) | 0.45 | (13) | 46 | 56 | 45 | 57 | -1 | |
| Chicago Sox | 3.72 | (15) | 4.42 | (9) | 0.421 | (14) | 43 | 59 | 40 | 62 | -3 | |
| Houston | 3.76 | (14) | 5.35 | (15) | 0.344 | (15) | 36 | 68 | 35 | 69 | -1 | |
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Boston | 96 | 66 | |
| Tampa Bay | 96 | 66 | |
| Oakland | 96 | 66 | |
| Detroit | 92 | 70 | |
| Baltimore | 89 | 73 | |
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Boston | 96 | 66 | |
| Detroit | 95 | 67 | |
| Tampa Bay | 95 | 67 | |
| Oakland | 94 | 68 | |
| Cleveland | 88 | 74 | |
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | Projected | Actual | | |
|---|
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck | |
|---|
| Detroit | 6.71 | (1) | 2.71 | (3) | 0.84 | (1) | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleveland | 5.33 | (3) | 2.5 | (1) | 0.8 | (2) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | |
| Kansas City | 3.71 | (7) | 2.57 | (2) | 0.662 | (3) | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tampa Bay | 4.33 | (5) | 3.17 | (4) | 0.64 | (4) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Minnesota | 3.86 | (6) | 3.29 | (6) | 0.573 | (5) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Oakland | 4.86 | (4) | 4.29 | (11) | 0.557 | (6) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Boston | 3.17 | (12) | 3.17 | (4) | 0.5 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Toronto | 5.86 | (2) | 6.71 | (15) | 0.438 | (8) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Baltimore | 3.43 | (10) | 4 | (10) | 0.43 | (9) | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | |
| Seattle | 3.29 | (11) | 3.86 | (9) | 0.427 | (10) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| NY Yankees | 2.86 | (13) | 3.71 | (7) | 0.382 | (11) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| LA Angels | 3.71 | (7) | 5.14 | (13) | 0.355 | (12) | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Houston | 3.71 | (7) | 5.14 | (13) | 0.355 | (12) | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Texas | 2.57 | (14) | 3.71 | (7) | 0.338 | (14) | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Chicago Sox | 2.43 | (15) | 4.71 | (12) | 0.229 | (15) | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | |
Labels: pythagorean, Red Sox
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