Monday, July 29, 2013

Monday Pythagorean, 7/29/2013

"What does three up, three down mean to you, airman?" 
"The end of an inning?"
  • After what seems like several mediocre weeks in a row, we wake up this morning to see that the Boston Red Sox have fallen to ... first place in the AL East. And the American League as a whole. That's right - despite a stretch that's felt like a bit of a struggle, the Red Sox still have the best record in the AL.
  • A big part of the reason that it's felt like a struggle, of course, is not due to Boston's performance, but Tampa's. It's hard not to "hear the footsteps" as the lead keeps shrinking, but this hasn't been a case of the Red Sox failing to perform but of the Rays having an unbelievable stretch. "Maddon magic," if you will.
  • This was Tampa's worst week in a while, as they lost twice. It's the only time during the month of July that they've actually lost 2 games in a calendar (Monday->Sunday) week, having gone 6-1, 6-1 and 3-0 in the last three.
  • That rainout on Thursday was the game of the Tampa series that appeared to have the best pitching matchup from the Red Sox' point-of-view. And because of the way that it got rescheduled, not only do the Red Sox not get to get the Rays at a time when they've cooled off, they get David Price again tonight, for the second time in a week.
  • The big off-the-field news of the week was the Dustin Pedroia contract extension. The Red Sox and Pedroia agreed on a $100 million deal covering 2015-2021. That's about $14 million per year for his age 31-37 seasons. My take? I love it. Pedroia (very likely) gives up some money in 2015-2019 but takes the security of a $100 million deal. The Red Sox give up a little roster flexibility, and commit to pay him for the next nine years, but get their best and most important player under control for essentially his entire career at a very reasonable price. Good deal for both sides. I love it.
  • It's about time for him to break out of his current slump, though. He's had a very poor (.205/.283/.273/.556) month of July.
  • A hot start (and his was very hot) can hide a precipitous decline for a while, and Jose Iglesias is hitting .200/.244/.213/.457 in July. Is it time to bring Mr. Middlebrooks back up?
  • And I'm starting to feel a sense of deja vu, as I wonder - are we going to spend the next three years replaying the Alex Gonzalez argument/debate/discussion, with only the name changed? Or will Iglesias have enough hot stretches to keep his overall numbers productive and respectable?
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Stop me if you've heard this before, but ... David Ortiz (.450/.522/.600/1.122).
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - And just when you give up on thinking of him as an ace, Jon Lester has a week like this - two starts, 13-plus innings, two runs, including a 7 inning shutout in Baltimore yesterday that moves Boston back into first place.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/29/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.28(1)4.11(6)0.613(1)64405945-5
Boston5.06(2)4.19(7)0.585(2)624463431
Tampa Bay4.68(5)3.99(4)0.572(3)604562432
Oakland4.48(8)3.84(1)0.57(4)604562432
Cleveland4.78(3)4.34(8)0.544(5)57475648-1
Baltimore4.72(4)4.43(10)0.528(6)565058482
Texas4.15(9)4.08(5)0.508(7)535256493
Kansas City3.95(12)3.96(3)0.499(8)515151510
NY Yankees3.88(13)3.95(2)0.491(9)525355503
LA Angels4.57(7)4.72(13)0.485(10)50534855-2
Toronto4.62(6)4.84(14)0.479(11)50544856-2
Seattle4.1(11)4.55(11)0.452(12)475850553
Minnesota4.13(10)4.61(12)0.45(13)46564557-1
Chicago Sox3.72(15)4.42(9)0.421(14)43594062-3
Houston3.76(14)5.35(15)0.344(15)36683569-1


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9666
Tampa Bay9666
Oakland9666
Detroit9270
Baltimore8973


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9666
Detroit9567
Tampa Bay9567
Oakland9468
Cleveland8874


Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit6.71(1)2.71(3)0.84(1)61610
Cleveland5.33(3)2.5(1)0.8(2)5142-1
Kansas City3.71(7)2.57(2)0.662(3)52611
Tampa Bay4.33(5)3.17(4)0.64(4)42420
Minnesota3.86(6)3.29(6)0.573(5)43430
Oakland4.86(4)4.29(11)0.557(6)43521
Boston3.17(12)3.17(4)0.5(7)33330
Toronto5.86(2)6.71(15)0.438(8)34340
Baltimore3.43(10)4(10)0.43(9)3425-1
Seattle3.29(11)3.86(9)0.427(10)34431
NY Yankees2.86(13)3.71(7)0.382(11)34340
LA Angels3.71(7)5.14(13)0.355(12)25250
Houston3.71(7)5.14(13)0.355(12)25250
Texas2.57(14)3.71(7)0.338(14)25250
Chicago Sox2.43(15)4.71(12)0.229(15)2516-1

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