Monday Pythagorean Report - 5/10/2010

Objectively speaking, it's possible to paint this as a very productive week. They went 5-2, which is good, they gained ground in the division (1/2 game closer to the Rays, who went 4-2), and they led the AL in runs scored. But somehow, it doesn't feel that good.

• The four games against LAnaheim looked good - good pitching and good hitting, and they really kind of looked like they were getting things together. But LAnaheim doesn't look like they're a very good team this year.
• The weekend was saved from being a complete and total disaster by Jon Lester and the offense, but it wasn't good. They lost two-of-three to the Yankees. Buchholz got man-handled by the New York offense. The bullpen failed to stanch the bleeding. Beckett was horrible. And they didn't pull out a big offensive effort in either game where they needed to overcome a bad start from the starter.
• That's probably not totally fair. They did come back and take the lead against Sabathia on Saturday. But Buchholz gave it right back, and things unraveled after the rain delay.
• Fox gripe: I saw not a single pitch from Saturday's game. Part of that was because I was on the road during the afternoon when it started, and when they went to the rain delay. But when they came back after the break, still in a competitive game (down three, as I recall), the Boston Fox station had gone to Atlanta-Philadelphia, and then into Seinfeld and Simpsons re-runs. As near as I can tell, I had no access to the last four innings of Saturday's Red Sox-Yankee game. As it is, I've no desire to have seen it, but if the Red Sox had outscored the Yankees 4-0 over that span, certainly not an outlandish scenario, they would have won 7-6 and I wouldn't have been able to see any of it. I'm not happy about that.
• Amusing professional commentary of the week, from whoever is the third person in the booth with Jon Miller and Joe Morgan on Sunday night: "This is the pitch they want to get him out on..." The count was 3-2. OF COURSE it was the pitch they wanted to get him out on - the alternative was a walk. That was commentary worthy of Joe Morgan, and it didn't even come from Morgan.
• Amusing (read: idiotic) amateur commentary of the week, from the moron who called WEEI yesterday morning to say that "we all knew that they couldn't win with this offense. They don't have enough offense to win, and everybody knows that." This call came after back to back games in which the starting pitcher allowed 6+ runs, in which the team allowed 10 and 14 runs. He's talking about the team that is currently 3rd out of 14 teams in offensive performance in the AL, and 14th out of 14 teams in pitching/defense. But he "knew" before the season started that they didn't have enough offense, and he's got to be right, dagnabbit. (Obviously, they don't have enough offense to win given how they've pitched, but neither does anyone else...)
• Red Sox Player of the Week - Kevin Youkilis, who hit .450/.645/.800/1.445 for the week, with 1 HR, 2 doubles and a triple. But there were abundant candidates to choose from, as the team scored over seven runs per game in leading the AL in hitting for the week. David Ortiz hit .286/.312/.571/.883, which would have won this award some weeks, and there were seven or eight guys better than that.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Jon Lester, who has gotten through his early season doldrums a little quicker than he did last year, and looks, again, like a dominating ace. In two starts this week, he pitched at least seven in both, and allowed a total of 3 runs in 15 innings for a 1.80 ERA.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/10/2010

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	5.61	(2)	3.03	(1)	0.755	(1)	23	8	22	9	-1
New York	5.93	(1)	3.7	(3)	0.704	(2)	21	9	21	9	0
Minnesota	5.13	(4)	3.63	(2)	0.653	(3)	21	11	21	11	0
Toronto	4.88	(5)	4.33	(7)	0.554	(4)	18	15	19	14	1
Texas	4.63	(7)	4.22	(6)	0.542	(5)	17	15	18	14	1
Oakland	4.22	(9)	4	(4)	0.524	(6)	17	15	17	15	0
Detroit	4.81	(6)	4.71	(8)	0.509	(7)	16	15	17	14	1
Boston	5.16	(3)	5.53	(14)	0.468	(8)	15	17	16	16	1
Chicago	4.25	(8)	5	(11)	0.426	(9)	14	18	13	19	-1
Seattle	3.29	(14)	4	(4)	0.412	(10)	13	18	12	19	-1
Kansas City	4.13	(10)	5.44	(13)	0.376	(11)	12	20	11	21	-1
Los Angeles	3.97	(11)	5.36	(12)	0.366	(12)	12	21	14	19	2
Cleveland	3.66	(12)	4.97	(9)	0.363	(13)	11	18	11	18	0
Baltimore	3.34	(13)	4.97	(10)	0.326	(14)	10	22	9	23	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Tampa Bay	115	47
New York	113	49
Minnesota	106	56
Toronto	93	69
Texas	91	71

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Tampa Bay	121	41
New York	114	48
Minnesota	106	56
Toronto	90	72
Texas	88	74

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	4.5	(7)	2.33	(1)	0.769	(1)	5	1	4	2	-1
New York	7	(2)	3.67	(4)	0.766	(2)	5	1	5	1	0
Minnesota	4.86	(5)	3	(3)	0.707	(3)	5	2	5	2	0
Toronto	5.57	(3)	4	(5)	0.647	(4)	5	2	6	1	1
Oakland	3.67	(12)	2.83	(2)	0.616	(5)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	7.29	(1)	6.14	(13)	0.577	(6)	4	3	5	2	1
Texas	5.29	(4)	4.57	(8)	0.566	(7)	4	3	5	2	1
Chicago	4.86	(5)	4.43	(7)	0.542	(8)	4	3	3	4	-1
Cleveland	4.2	(8)	5.6	(9)	0.371	(9)	2	3	1	4	-1
Detroit	4.2	(8)	6	(11)	0.342	(10)	2	3	1	4	-1
Kansas City	4.14	(10)	6	(11)	0.337	(11)	2	5	1	6	-1
Los Angeles	4.14	(10)	6.71	(14)	0.292	(12)	2	5	2	5	0
Baltimore	2.43	(14)	4.29	(6)	0.261	(13)	2	5	2	5	0
Seattle	2.67	(13)	5.67	(10)	0.201	(14)	1	5	1	5	0