Saturday, January 16, 2010

Prediction: Brown wins

Last night, my kids asked who I thought was going to win the special election for the Senate seat in Massachusetts on Tuesday and I said, for the first time, that I thought that Scott Brown, absent some significant race-altering event, was going to hold on and win.

Now, for the first time, people investing real money at intrade also think that Brown's going to win.

It's not over yet, but we're now looking at five different polls over the past three days (Suffolk, ARG, CrossTarget, and the internal polls for both campaigns), and all five have Brown in front, with no indicators of any kind that his momentum has slowed. It's hard to imagine, about 75 hours out from the polls closing, what could happen that could change the dynamics of the race enough to save Coakley.

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