Monday, January 11, 2010

Dueling polls

Geraghty has Rasmussen's take on the differing polls (MA Senate):
First, all three surveys show Coakley right around the 50% mark. The Rasmussen poll has her right at 50%, while the Globe shows her three points higher and PPP three points lower. If Coakley is truly right around the 50% mark, then the race is hers to lose, and Brown’s best possible scenario is a very narrow victory.

Second, all the polls show that a lower turnout is better for Brown. In the Rasmussen poll, Coakley leads by nine overall, but Brown pulls to within two points among those who are certain to vote. In the Globe poll, Coakley leads by 17 overall, but among those who are “extremely interested” in the election, it’s 47% for Brown and 47% for Coakley. PPP shows a toss-up but suggests it’s close because of low turnout among Democrats.
There's a little more, but I think that what's here is correct. It really does take a perfect storm for Brown to win, and doing everything right isn't enough to create that storm. Next Tuesday's weather (currently forecast for snow flurries) may have a real impact on this race.

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