Friday, January 08, 2010

Is Coakley in trouble

Is Martha Coakley in more trouble than I thought?
Coakley has been surprisingly quiet for someone who supposedly had tons of money. She has only recently rolled out television advertising, and in a smaller ad buy than she did during the primary.

Now news that Coakley, who has been criticized for taking vacation in the middle of the special election and creating a "diva" image, is heading to Washington, D.C. on Tuesday for a fundraiser...While Coakley likely will raise substantial dollars, taking yet another day off the campaign trail just a week before the election is another sign that Coakley may not have as much in the bank as she claims.
There are some outsiders following this race a lot more closely than I am. Well, I've obviously made up my mind, and I'm afraid that I'm not so optimistic as they are. I hope that I'm wrong, and that Scott Brown ekes out a victory. And certainly Coakley's a lousy candidate. The problem is, we're talking about the electorate that put Deval Patrick in the statehouse and sends John Kerry back to Washington, and sent Ted Kennedy back to Washington for 40 years. We're talking about a state which has not a single Republican in its congressional delegation, a state where the Democrats have veto-proof majorities in both houses of the state legislature, despite the near-monthly occurrence of some Democratic politician being led out of the statehouse in hand-cuffs.

So Coakley may be in trouble, when looking at the kind of proxy stuff that matters in a competitive race. I'm just not convinced that the best performance by Brown and the worst performance by Coakley and the lowest turnout, all of which we may be looking at, results in anything other than a 3-5 point loss for Brown.

I hope that I'm wrong. Indeed, I pray that I'm wrong. But I'm not optimistic...

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