Monday, September 07, 2009

Monday Pythagorean, 9/7/2009

3-3 isn't anything special, but given that 2 of the 3 were in Tampa, it was, on the whole, productive.

  • To start with, Tampa's done. The Red Sox aren't going to make up seven games on the Yankees in four weeks, and the Rays aren't going to make up seven games on the Red Sox in four weeks. The Wild Card is a two team contest, and all the Red Sox have to do is play no worse than two games worse than Texas over the last four weeks and they'll be playing post-season ball for the third year in a row, sixth out of seven and eighth out of twelve.


  • I'm going to question a couple of tactical moves by the manager this week. I already mentioned the inexcusable allowing of Gonzalez to bat on Wednesday night. I also disapprove of Papelbon finishing the game yesterday after the Martinez shot in the top of the 9th made it 6-1. Yes, Papelbon was already warming, and they don't want pitchers bouncing up and down. I understand that. But anyone out there can protect a five-run lead for three innings, and if you sit Papelbon down as soon as that ball clears the fence, doesn't that help with availability today and tomorrow?


  • The Rangers and Red Sox each have 26 games remaining. Boston has 15 at home and 11 on the road, Texas has 12 at home and 14 on the road. The difference right now is 3 games in the standings. This week, the Red Sox play one at Chicago, two at home vs. Baltimore and three at home vs. Tampa. The Rangers have 3 at Cleveland and 3 at home vs. the Mariners. Both teams are off on Thursday.


  • New York's Magic Number to clinch the East is 19.
    Boston's magic number to eliminate Texas is 24.
    Boston's magic number to eliminate Tampa is 20.


  • The big problem with David Ortiz, I have decided, is that the down periods are longer and further down than they used to be. I don't remember a lot of 10 game stretches where Big Papi would hit .167/.250/.194/.444, with no HR. But that's what he's done for the last 10, and it seems as if there have been plenty of them this year.


  • Jon Lester started 2008 poorly, then was dominant the rest of the way. Jon Lester started 2009 poorly, as well. After a bad April, he was up and down through the first few weeks of May. On the 26th, he allowed 5 ER in 6 innings in a loss at Minnesota, dropping his record to 3-5 and raising his ERA to 6.07 through his first 10 starts. Since then, he's taken the mound 18 times, averaged 6 2/3 innings per start, and gone 9-2 with a 2.15 ERA, striking out 142 (10.5 per 9 innings) with a 3.94 K/BB ratio. He is one of the best pitchers in the game. Since May 27, there are two Major League pitchers with at least 15 starts and an ERA better than Lester's 2.15. Tim Lincecum has a 2.00 and Felix Hernandez has a 2.10. Neither one, the last time I checked, was pitching in Fenway Park or the AL East. Over that same stretch, more than 1/2 a season, Zach Greinke's ERA is 3.06. CC Sabathia's is 3.51. There is one Major League start in 2009 with 25+ starts and more strikeouts per 9 innings than Jon Lester, and that's Tim Lincecum, who faces pitchers two or three times per game. If they could get Lester's April issues fixed, he's a legitimate Cy Young contender.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week: - A couple of good weeks, as Drew, Bay and Youkilis all continue to produce. The best of the week, though, was Victor Martinez, who hit .429/.538/.619/1.057 with five walks, one double and one HR.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: - Some week's there are no good candidates, some weeks there are a plethora of pinatas good candidates (yes, I saw Three Amigos this week) and some weeks it is a very easy choice. This week, it was a very easy choice, as Jon Lester started twice, allowed only 2 runs in 13 innings of work, and was credited with two of the Sox three wins on the week. Oh, and he struck out 17 while walking only four in those 13 innings.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/7/2009
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York5.74(1)4.75(7)0.586(1)805787507

Boston5.29(3)4.54(5)0.569(2)775979572

Los Angeles5.66(2)4.93(11)0.562(3)765981545

Tampa Bay5.15(4)4.6(6)0.552(4)75617264-3

Texas4.84(8)4.4(2)0.543(5)746276602

Detroit4.63(9)4.46(3)0.517(6)706675615

Toronto4.85(7)4.76(8)0.508(7)69676175-8

Minnesota4.87(6)4.81(10)0.506(8)69676868-1

Chicago4.57(11)4.54(4)0.503(9)69696870-1

Cleveland4.94(5)5.18(12)0.478(10)65716076-5

Oakland4.5(12)4.79(9)0.472(11)65726176-4

Seattle3.99(14)4.37(1)0.458(12)637572669

Baltimore4.61(10)5.28(14)0.439(13)60775681-4

Kansas City4.05(13)5.19(13)0.388(14)53835185-2




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10359

Los Angeles9765

Boston9468

Texas9171

Detroit8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10260

Los Angeles9666

Boston9468

Texas9072

Detroit8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Los Angeles3.67(9)1.5(1)0.837(1)5142-1

Chicago4.43(8)2.71(2)0.71(2)5243-1

Oakland6(3)4.71(6)0.609(3)43430

New York6.86(2)5.43(9)0.605(4)43521

Detroit5.71(4)4.71(6)0.587(5)43612

Toronto6.88(1)6.25(14)0.543(6)4435-1

Minnesota2.83(13)2.83(3)0.5(7)33330

Texas5(6)5.57(12)0.451(8)34431

Tampa Bay5.43(5)6.14(13)0.444(9)3425-1

Boston4.67(7)5.5(10)0.425(10)33330

Cleveland3.17(12)3.83(4)0.413(11)24240

Seattle3.57(11)4.57(5)0.389(12)34431

Baltimore3.67(9)5.5(10)0.323(13)24240

Kansas City2.83(13)5.33(8)0.239(14)15150

Labels: , ,

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link