Tuesday, November 11, 2008

NFL Week 10 wrapup

Week 10 in the NFL...

  • The Patriots are currently 6-3 and tied for the 2nd best record in the AFC. There were a lot of people that did not expect that when Brady went down during the first game. I did.

  • It seems to me, though, that they've currently got a red zone problem. As in, they're allowing touchdowns when their opponents reach the red zone, but not scoring them when they reach the red zone themselves. The offense has consistenly improved, and they are both moving the ball and controlling the clock. But they aren't putting the ball in the end zone. (Whether this is true or just my perception is, of course, determinable. I don't have the time right now, and no one's going to pay me, to do the proper research, so I offer this not as fact but as perception.)

  • A year ago, we made it through week 10 with an undefeated team and a winless team. And the undefeated team stayed that way until the Super Bowl. But the winless team didn't. I don't expect either the winless team or the undefeated team to make it all the way through this year, either.

  • Coming off of a dispiriting loss in Oakland, the Jets are the proud owners of a bright, shiny three-game NFL winning streak. Have they turned a corner of some sort, risen to a new performance level? Or have they hit a fortuitous stretch in their schedule? We'll know more about them Friday morning, as the Patriots and Jets fight for first in the AFC East Thursday night.

  • The Titans have (obviously) been excellent so far. They've played outstanding defense and good offense, and have made all of the plays that they've needed to make. That said, I'm not buying them as an undefeated team. They haven't shown me the kind of separation that's required between points scored and allowed that cushions the off night. They're going to lose at least once down the stretch.

  • The Lions are going win at least once, too.

  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say:

    Buffalo at New England - "The Bills looked to be one of the great stories of the NFL season when they started 4-0. But in their last four games, they're 1-3 and have been outscored 106-73. And they'll be in New England without Donte Whitner and Aaron Schobel, two of their better defensive players, to face a New England team that's showing signs of getting it all put together. The Patriots win this by a touchdown or more, in a game that isn't as close as the final score would indicate."

    Seattle at Miami - "Too many points. I don't see the Seahawks winning, though I'm rooting for them to do so. But I can't pick the Dolphins to cover 8."

    San Francisco at Arizona - "Too many points. Arizona's a better team, but Singletary is either going to get an effort from the 49ers or lose them completely. In the long run, probably the latter, but for now, the former is more likely. The Cardinals win a close one."

  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite):

    Jacksonville at Detroit - "Is this the week that the Lions break through and guarantee that another NFL season passes without a winless team? Yes."

    New Orleans at Atlanta - "This is a pick based on pre-conceptions rather than what's happened this year. The Falcons have obviously made tremendous strides, and Matt Ryan is as good a first-year quarterback as we've seen in a long time. And the Saints have been a disappointment. Rationally, you've got to go with Atlanta in this one. But I'm not."

    Denver at Cleveland - "Losing badly to New England on the road is one thing. Losing badly to Miami at home in their next outing is something else entirely. The former could happen to anyone, the latter on the heels of the former is indicative of mediocrity, or worse."

  • For the week:
    Winners: 7-7
    ATS: 6-8-0

  • For the season:
    Winners: 83-61
    ATS: 75-65-4

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