Thursday, November 06, 2008

NFL picks, Week 10

Denver at Cleveland (-3) - Losing badly to New England on the road is one thing. Losing badly to Miami at home in their next outing is something else entirely. The former could happen to anyone, the latter on the heels of the former is indicative of mediocrity, or worse.

New Orleans (+1) at Atlanta - This is a pick based on pre-conceptions rather than what's happened this year. The Falcons have obviously made tremendous strides, and Matt Ryan is as good a first-year quarterback as we've seen in a long time. And the Saints have been a disappointment. Rationally, you've got to go with Atlanta in this one. But I'm not.

Tennessee at Chicago (+3) - Here's the question - am I stubborn enough to keep picking against Tennessee until they lose? The answer to that is very probably, "yes."

Jacksonville at Detroit (+6.5) - Is this the week that the Lions break through and guarantee that another NFL season passes without a winless team? Yes.

Seattle (+8) at Miami - Too many points. I don't see the Seahawks winning, though I'm rooting for them to do so. But I can't pick the Dolphins to cover 8.

Green Bay at Minnesota (-2.5) - I don't believe in the Vikings. I don't know why I'm picking them. But I am.

Buffalo at New England (-3.5) - The Bills looked to be one of the great stories of the NFL season when they started 4-0. But in their last four games, they're 1-3 and have been outscored 106-73. And they'll be in New England without Donte Whitner and Aaron Schobel, two of their better defensive players, to face a New England team that's showing signs of getting it all put together. The Patriots win this by a touchdown or more, in a game that isn't as close as the final score would indicate.

St. Louis (+9) at N.Y. Jets - Too many points. The Rams have been too tough recently to make the Jets an easy cover. New York probably wins, but close.

Baltimore at Houston (0) - I could come up with reasons to support either team in this game, I suppose. I could also come up with reasons to pick against either team. In the long run, all of those reasons would cancel out, leaving me tossing a coin or choosing the home team. I'll just skip a couple of those steps.

Carolina (-9.5) at Oakland - The Raiders are a bad team right now.

Indianapolis (+0) at Pittsburgh - The only possible rationale for picking the Colts is that you think the Colts are still a better team than they've played so far, and the Steelers aren't quite the team that they've been so far.

Kansas City (+15.5) at San Diego - Too many points. The Chargers win, comfortably, but not by 16.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-3) - There were many different election projections over the past couple of weeks which had John McCain winning. Several of them seemed plausible. But it all smacked of analysis by wishful thinking. This pick may fall into that category, too.

San Francisco (+9.5) at Arizona - Too many points. Arizona's a better team, but Singletary is either going to get an effort from the 49ers or lose them completely. In the long run, probably the latter, but for now, the former is more likely. The Cardinals win a close one.

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