Friday, October 24, 2008

NFL Picks, Week 8

Oakland (+7) at Baltimore - I still don't think Oakland's a good team. And Baltimore went into Miami last week and handled them convincingly. But I can't see a convincing reason to pick either of these teams. Given that, 7 points is too much. Who's going to win? Ravens. Close.

Arizona at Carolina (-4) - In case you hadn't noticed yet, I never know what to do with the Panthers. But they're 5-2 and playing at home, and I'm tired of watching them win big when I pick them to lose. So this week, I'll pick them to win. (And very likely watch them lose as a result.)

Tampa Bay (+2) at Dallas - Even with Tony Romo, the Cowboys looked like they might be falling apart, a Jerry Jones has continued to play George Steinbrenner, ca. 1984.

Washington (-7) at Detroit - Is this the week that the Lions win? No.

Buffalo (-1.5) at Miami - The Bills are a better team than the Dolphins. (Now really, aren't you embarassed not to be paying for analysis this good?)

St. Louis at New England (-7) - This looked easy a couple of weeks ago. That's no longer the case, as St. Louis has beaten Washington and Dallas back-to-back. That said, the Patriots are still the better team, and they win this by 10+.

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (London) - I believe that no NFL team has ever played a game as far away from its home stadium as the Chargers are going to this week. Fortunately for them, they've got a bye next week - the trip from London back to San Diego is a long one. As to the game itself, both of these teams expected to be better than 3-4 at this point. Instead of being upper-tier teams, they look to be part of the vast middle, and really, is there any outcome of this game that would qualify as a surprise? San Diego has both scored more and allowed fewer points than the Saints, and I'm going with the Chargers.

Kansas City (+13) at N.Y. Jets - Kansas City is bad. It is very easy to picture this game getting out of hand, and the Jets beating them by four touchdowns. That may happen, and it wouldn't surprise me. And the Jets will certainly win. But 13 is just too many points.

Atlanta (+9) at Philadelphia - I actually could see the Falcons winning this game outright. I don't think that they will, but I could see it. I think that the Eagles win a close and competitive game.

Cleveland (+7) at Jacksonville - There are a bunch of TMP games this week. TMP - Too Many Points. Where's the evidence that Jacksonville can beat anyone by a touchdown? With me rooting for Cleveland because of Romeo, Jacksonville wins a close one.

Cincinnati (+9.5) at Houston - TMP. Houston by three.

N.Y. Giants (+2.5) at Pittsburgh - There are a couple of very good games this weekend. This is the one on Sunday. And, to be up-front about it, this guarantees that SOMETHING I like happens this weekend. I consider it a good thing when the Giants lose and a good thing when the Steelers lose. Both losing is better, but playing head-to-head guarantees that one of them loses. I think the Steelers lose in a close game.

Seattle at San Francisco (-5) - Have I mentioned yet that going into a season with a lame-duck head coach is a bad idea?

Indianapolis (+4) at Tennessee - The ESPN Monday Night guys get what should be a good one. A classic offense vs. defense matchup, with each team considerably weaker on the other side of the ball. If the Titans win, they take a four-game lead in the AFC South, almost insurmountable at this point. I don't see that happening. The Colts started slow, and their defense is sub-par again, but I think that they can put up points on anyone, and the Titans haven't had to play from behind yet. Going with Colts in what, if I'm wrong, ends up being a "passing of the torch" game.

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