Monday, September 22, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 9/22/2008

We've got that autumn chill in the air as the season winds down...

  • Last September, the Rays and their fans had to watch as first Boston and then New York clinched playoff berths on their field. This year, they got to do the celebrating themselves, becoming the second AL team to clinch a playoff spot on Saturday night.


  • Their bigger wins, however, were on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Had Boston won either of those two games, the Sox would have left Tampa essentially tied in the division, and tied for the season series. Tampa winning both meant that they had to lose four more games than Boston over the last 11 days of the season not to win the division. It isn't final yet, but I've already congratulated them. Boston has seven games remaining, Tampa eight. The lead is 1 1/2 games, but two in the loss column and effectively three, because both teams are going to make the playoffs and the Rays took the season series, so Tampa wins the division on a tie. For Boston to win the east, Tampa has to go 5-3 while Boston goes 7-0, or 4-4 vs. 6-1, or 3-5 vs. 5-2, or 2-6 vs. 4-3, 1-7 vs. 3-4 or 0-8 vs. 2-5. I don't find any of those scenarios particularly likely. Boston's home vs. Cleveland and New York, Tampa's in Baltimore and Texas.


  • Oh, yes, the Red Sox haven't clinched quite yet. They'll finish ahead of Toronto and Minnesota, and at least tied with the Yankees, but if New York wins out and Boston loses out, the two teams would finish tied for the Wild card at 91-71. (Talk about your unlikely scenarios...) So Boston's magic number is 1 - any Boston win or Yankee loss clinches a playoff spot for the Red Sox.


  • As a baseball fan and a sentimental guy, the fact that the last game ever was played in Yankee Stadium last night should mean something to me. As a Red Sox fan, I'm pretty indifferent.


  • This time next week, we'll be talking playoffs. The most likely scenario has Boston opening at Los Angeles on Tuesday or Wednesday.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/22/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.24(2)4.21(4)0.598(1)93629164-2

Toronto4.42(11)3.82(1)0.566(2)88688373-5

Tampa Bay4.72(10)4.1(2)0.564(3)876792625

Chicago4.98(5)4.41(6)0.555(4)866986690

Los Angeles4.73(9)4.25(5)0.549(5)8570965911

Minnesota5.13(3)4.62(8)0.548(6)85718472-1

New York4.81(8)4.5(7)0.53(7)837385712

Cleveland4.95(7)4.66(9)0.528(8)82737877-4

Detroit5.12(4)5.25(12)0.489(9)75797183-4

Oakland4(14)4.17(3)0.481(10)75807481-1

Baltimore4.96(6)5.38(13)0.463(11)71836787-4

Texas5.5(1)6.04(14)0.457(12)718575814

Kansas City4.22(12)4.91(10)0.431(13)678970863

Seattle4.07(13)5.01(11)0.406(14)63925798-6




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Los Angeles10062

Tampa Bay9765

Boston9567

Chicago9072

New York8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Los Angeles10062

Tampa Bay9765

Boston9567

Chicago9072

New York8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York4.43(10)2.29(1)0.77(1)52611

Kansas City5(6)2.71(2)0.754(2)52520

Cleveland7.17(1)4.5(8)0.701(3)42602

Oakland5(6)3.17(3)0.698(4)42511

Tampa Bay6.29(5)5(9)0.603(5)43430

Los Angeles6.33(4)5.67(10)0.551(6)33421

Boston4.5(9)4.33(7)0.517(7)33330

Detroit7(2)7(13)0.5(8)3315-2

Toronto3.33(12)3.5(4)0.478(9)33330

Chicago3.57(11)4.14(6)0.433(10)34340

Baltimore2.67(13)3.67(5)0.358(11)2415-1

Texas6.5(3)9.67(14)0.326(12)24240

Minnesota4.57(8)6.86(12)0.323(13)25250

Seattle2.14(14)5.86(11)0.137(14)1607-1

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