Monday Pythagorean 6/23/2008

3-3. If that's the bad week, you're OK, if it's the good week, you're in trouble.

• The Red Sox remain in first place, in a virtual tie with the LA Angels for the best record in the AL.



• A so-so week in all respects. Taking two of three in Philadelphia was impressive, losing two of three at home to St. Louis was ... less so. On the whole, the pitching (3.5 runs allowed/game) was pretty good, the hitting (4 runs/game) was not not. The culprits this week were Ellsbury, Ramirez and the catchers, who combined to go 9-66, hitting .136/.197/.182/.379 with no HR, no RBI, and (using Runs Created) creating less than one run while using up 61 outs. It's tough to put consistent offense together when 1/3 of the lineup is going that badly - when that 1/3 includes both the lead-off and clean-up hitters, it is very tough.



• They got a big helping hand from the Cincinnati Reds, who took 2-of-3 in Yankee Stadium over the weekend. Yes, I still think that the Yankees are a threat.



• On the injury front, Ortiz is out of his cast and into a splint. Everyone involved is making happy noises, and they expect him to pick up a bat in the next 10 days or so. Matsuzaka came back and looked as if he shouldn't have, giving up 7 runs in 1-plus innings of work on Saturday. No one is expressing any concern other than "rust," though, so I'm not going to worry until I see it happen again. And Schilling's having surgery today, and is done for the year, and possibly forever.



• Interleague play results in unfair schedules. (Well, so does the unbalanced schedule when combined with the Wild Card.) The Yankees seem to have a much easier schedule this year than the Red Sox. I broke it down, and this is what we see:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  Red Sox - Yankee Schedule comparison

  Head-to-head	18
  common	113
  common opponent, different site	11
  different AL	8
  different NL	12
  Total	162

  
  So they've got 20 games that differ. In the AL, Boston has 1 with the Tigers, 4 with the A's and 3 with the Rangers while New York has 1 with the Angels and Indians and 3 with the Twins and Royals. In the NL, the Red Sox have 3 with Arizona, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and St. Louis, while the Yankees have 3 with the Pirates and Padres and 6 with the Mets.
  
  The opponents current records for those 20 games are:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  Red Sox - Yankee Schedule comparison

  	Red Sox Opponents			Yankee Opponents
  	W	L	%	W	L	%
  Different AL	317	289	.523	300	308	.493
  Different NL	498	417	.544	426	477	.472
  Total	815	706	.536	726	785	.480

  
  
  So essentially, the Yankees get 20 extra games against a 78 win team while the Red Sox get 20 extra games against an 87 win team. Anyone think that that could make a 2-3 game difference?



• Friday night, the Red Sox start a 10-game road trip that includes stops in Tampa and New York. They are going to have an opportunity to open up a lead in the division (or fail to do so) before the All Star break arrives...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/23/2008

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Chicago	4.83	(3)	3.89	(3)	0.597	(1)	45	30	41	34	-4
Boston	5.06	(2)	4.13	(6)	0.592	(2)	46	32	47	31	1
Oakland	4.56	(7)	3.72	(1)	0.592	(3)	44	31	41	34	-3
Tampa Bay	4.51	(9)	4.09	(5)	0.544	(4)	41	34	44	31	3
New York	4.62	(6)	4.37	(8)	0.525	(5)	40	36	41	35	1
Cleveland	4.51	(8)	4.32	(7)	0.52	(6)	40	36	35	41	-5
Los Angeles	4.26	(11)	4.09	(4)	0.519	(7)	39	37	46	30	7
Toronto	4	(12)	3.88	(2)	0.514	(8)	40	37	36	41	-4
Minnesota	4.8	(4)	4.83	(12)	0.498	(9)	38	38	40	36	2
Detroit	4.8	(5)	4.83	(11)	0.497	(10)	37	38	36	39	-1
Texas	5.57	(1)	5.69	(14)	0.491	(11)	38	39	39	38	1
Baltimore	4.39	(10)	4.57	(9)	0.481	(12)	36	38	38	36	2
Kansas City	3.97	(13)	4.7	(10)	0.424	(13)	32	44	33	43	1
Seattle	3.93	(14)	4.99	(13)	0.393	(14)	29	46	26	49	-3

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	98	64
Los Angeles	98	64
Tampa Bay	95	67
Chicago	89	73
Oakland	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	97	65
Chicago	93	69
Oakland	93	69
Tampa Bay	91	71
Los Angeles	91	71

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Minnesota	6.67	(2)	2	(1)	0.901	(1)	5	1	6	0	1
Los Angeles	5.33	(5)	3.33	(4)	0.703	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Texas	5.83	(3)	4	(6)	0.666	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
New York	4	(11)	2.83	(2)	0.653	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Tampa Bay	4.17	(10)	3.17	(3)	0.623	(5)	4	2	4	2	0
Chicago	8	(1)	6.17	(14)	0.617	(6)	4	2	3	3	-1
Oakland	5.83	(3)	4.5	(10)	0.617	(7)	4	2	3	3	-1
Detroit	5.33	(5)	4.17	(7)	0.611	(8)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	4	(11)	3.5	(5)	0.561	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Kansas City	4.83	(7)	4.33	(8)	0.55	(10)	3	3	5	1	2
Baltimore	4.67	(8)	4.33	(8)	0.534	(11)	3	3	4	2	1
Seattle	4.33	(9)	5.5	(13)	0.393	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Cleveland	3.83	(13)	5	(11)	0.381	(13)	2	4	2	4	0
Toronto	3.67	(14)	5.33	(12)	0.335	(14)	2	4	1	5	-1