Monday, June 23, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 6/23/2008

3-3. If that's the bad week, you're OK, if it's the good week, you're in trouble.

  • The Red Sox remain in first place, in a virtual tie with the LA Angels for the best record in the AL.


  • A so-so week in all respects. Taking two of three in Philadelphia was impressive, losing two of three at home to St. Louis was ... less so. On the whole, the pitching (3.5 runs allowed/game) was pretty good, the hitting (4 runs/game) was not not. The culprits this week were Ellsbury, Ramirez and the catchers, who combined to go 9-66, hitting .136/.197/.182/.379 with no HR, no RBI, and (using Runs Created) creating less than one run while using up 61 outs. It's tough to put consistent offense together when 1/3 of the lineup is going that badly - when that 1/3 includes both the lead-off and clean-up hitters, it is very tough.


  • They got a big helping hand from the Cincinnati Reds, who took 2-of-3 in Yankee Stadium over the weekend. Yes, I still think that the Yankees are a threat.


  • On the injury front, Ortiz is out of his cast and into a splint. Everyone involved is making happy noises, and they expect him to pick up a bat in the next 10 days or so. Matsuzaka came back and looked as if he shouldn't have, giving up 7 runs in 1-plus innings of work on Saturday. No one is expressing any concern other than "rust," though, so I'm not going to worry until I see it happen again. And Schilling's having surgery today, and is done for the year, and possibly forever.


  • Interleague play results in unfair schedules. (Well, so does the unbalanced schedule when combined with the Wild Card.) The Yankees seem to have a much easier schedule this year than the Red Sox. I broke it down, and this is what we see:








    Red Sox - Yankee Schedule comparison
    Head-to-head18
    common113
    common opponent, different site11
    different AL8
    different NL12
    Total162

    So they've got 20 games that differ. In the AL, Boston has 1 with the Tigers, 4 with the A's and 3 with the Rangers while New York has 1 with the Angels and Indians and 3 with the Twins and Royals. In the NL, the Red Sox have 3 with Arizona, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and St. Louis, while the Yankees have 3 with the Pirates and Padres and 6 with the Mets.

    The opponents current records for those 20 games are:







    Red Sox - Yankee Schedule comparison
    Red Sox OpponentsYankee Opponents
    WL%WL%
    Different AL317289.523300308.493
    Different NL498417.544426477.472
    Total815706.536726785.480


    So essentially, the Yankees get 20 extra games against a 78 win team while the Red Sox get 20 extra games against an 87 win team. Anyone think that that could make a 2-3 game difference?


  • Friday night, the Red Sox start a 10-game road trip that includes stops in Tampa and New York. They are going to have an opportunity to open up a lead in the division (or fail to do so) before the All Star break arrives...





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/23/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago4.83(3)3.89(3)0.597(1)45304134-4

Boston5.06(2)4.13(6)0.592(2)463247311

Oakland4.56(7)3.72(1)0.592(3)44314134-3

Tampa Bay4.51(9)4.09(5)0.544(4)413444313

New York4.62(6)4.37(8)0.525(5)403641351

Cleveland4.51(8)4.32(7)0.52(6)40363541-5

Los Angeles4.26(11)4.09(4)0.519(7)393746307

Toronto4(12)3.88(2)0.514(8)40373641-4

Minnesota4.8(4)4.83(12)0.498(9)383840362

Detroit4.8(5)4.83(11)0.497(10)37383639-1

Texas5.57(1)5.69(14)0.491(11)383939381

Baltimore4.39(10)4.57(9)0.481(12)363838362

Kansas City3.97(13)4.7(10)0.424(13)324433431

Seattle3.93(14)4.99(13)0.393(14)29462649-3




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9864

Los Angeles9864

Tampa Bay9567

Chicago8973

Oakland8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9765

Chicago9369

Oakland9369

Tampa Bay9171

Los Angeles9171




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Minnesota6.67(2)2(1)0.901(1)51601

Los Angeles5.33(5)3.33(4)0.703(2)42420

Texas5.83(3)4(6)0.666(3)42420

New York4(11)2.83(2)0.653(4)42420

Tampa Bay4.17(10)3.17(3)0.623(5)42420

Chicago8(1)6.17(14)0.617(6)4233-1

Oakland5.83(3)4.5(10)0.617(7)4233-1

Detroit5.33(5)4.17(7)0.611(8)42420

Boston4(11)3.5(5)0.561(9)33330

Kansas City4.83(7)4.33(8)0.55(10)33512

Baltimore4.67(8)4.33(8)0.534(11)33421

Seattle4.33(9)5.5(13)0.393(12)24240

Cleveland3.83(13)5(11)0.381(13)24240

Toronto3.67(14)5.33(12)0.335(14)2415-1

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