Monday, June 16, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 6/16/2008

Lose one, win two, lose one, win two. It doesn't sound great, but it is. That's the way the baseball season works - if you win 2 out of 3 all year long, you win 108 games. So a 4-2 week is a good week.

  • The Red Sox continue to be dominant at home, finishing a nine game homestand at 7-2, including a three game sweep of the first-place-at-the-time Rays.


  • Heading out on the road this time was, however, a little bit concerning. Start with the fact that they've played badly on the road all year. Toss in the fact that they're playing without David Ortiz and Manny's hurt. Throw in Papelbon blowing a save. All things considered, I'd say that coming out of Cincinnati having won 2-of-3 makes for a productive weekend.


  • In the last two weeks, they've gone from one game behind Tampa to 2 1/2 games ahead. They've done that without David Ortiz. They've done it without 40% of their opening day starting rotation, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buccholz. They've done it with 1/3 of their lineup, the catchers and middle infielders (Varitek, Cash, Lugo, Cora and Pedroia) hitting a combined (and shockingly bad) 0.185/.286/.265/.551. They've done it because of the good-to-great performances from the corner infielders and most of the outfielders, led by the white-hot J.D. Drew.


  • Since Ortiz' last at-bat, Drew has hit third, taking his spot in the batting order. OVer that 14 game stretch, he's 21 for 47 with 12 walks, six doubles and seven HR. He's hitting .447/.557/1.106/1.663. A lineup of nine players hitting the way Drew has hit for the past two weeks would be scoring over 21 runs per game. He has been unbelievable, and demonstrated why some of us loved his signing before the 2007 season.


  • More on Drew. He hit poorly for the first four months of the 2007 season, and there was a lot of the kind of "analysis" that drives me crazy - "he's gutless, he's not tough enough to handle the Boston market, he doesn't care, yadda, yadda, yadda." Well, over the last calendar year, 6/16/2007-6/15/2008, he's played in 142 games, hitting .304/.407/.514/.921 with 18 HR. Since August 1, 2007, he's hitting 0.318/.420/.549/.969. I think he can handle the Boston market. This guy is a great hitter and right now, they're sure glad that they've got him.


  • I haven't talked much about the Yankees this year, but they're only six games back, and it might get closer this week. Boston's at a good Philadelphia team the next three nights, still without Ortiz and (probably) Ramirez, while the Yankees have an off-day before hosting the punchless Padres. I suspect that, for the second straight year, people have written them off too soon. That doesn't mean that I think that the Yankees are as good as the Red Sox (I don't) or that they'll catch Boston (ditto). But they remain a threat, and no one should think that they're out of it. They are 3 1/2 games behind Tampa in the race for the AL Wild Card. Does anyone want to bet his house that the playoff streak ends?





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/16/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.15(2)4.18(6)0.595(1)432944281

Chicago4.56(7)3.7(2)0.594(2)41283831-3

Oakland4.45(9)3.65(1)0.589(3)41283831-3

Tampa Bay4.54(8)4.17(5)0.538(4)373240293

Cleveland4.57(6)4.26(7)0.533(5)37333337-4

Toronto4.03(12)3.76(3)0.531(6)38333536-3

New York4.67(4)4.5(8)0.517(7)363437331

Los Angeles4.17(11)4.16(4)0.502(8)353542287

Detroit4.75(3)4.88(11)0.488(9)34353237-2

Texas5.55(1)5.83(14)0.477(10)343735361

Baltimore4.36(10)4.59(9)0.476(11)323634342

Minnesota4.64(5)5.07(13)0.46(12)323834362

Kansas City3.9(13)4.73(10)0.413(13)29412842-1

Seattle3.9(14)4.94(12)0.393(14)27422445-3




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9963

Los Angeles9765

Tampa Bay9468

Chicago8973

Oakland8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9864

Chicago9369

Oakland9369

Tampa Bay9072

Los Angeles8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York5.14(7)2.57(2)0.78(1)52520

Boston6.17(2)3.67(5)0.721(2)42420

Cleveland6.43(1)4(6)0.704(3)52520

Oakland4(10)2.5(1)0.703(4)42420

Detroit5.29(6)3.57(4)0.672(5)52611

Kansas City5.57(4)4.43(9)0.604(6)43430

Tampa Bay5(9)4.5(10)0.548(7)33330

Minnesota5.14(7)5(11)0.513(8)4334-1

Texas5.5(5)5.67(13)0.486(9)33330

Baltimore6(3)6.5(14)0.463(10)33330

Los Angeles3.67(11)5(11)0.362(11)24331

Chicago3(12)4.14(8)0.356(12)25250

Toronto2.5(14)3.5(3)0.351(13)24240

Seattle2.67(13)4(6)0.323(14)24240

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