Monday, June 02, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 6/2/2008

A 4-2 week that felt much worse than it actually was.

  • Congratulations are due to Manny Ramirez on finally getting HR number 500, the 24th MLB player to hit that many (and the third to hit his 500th in a Boston uniform after Jimmy Foxx and Ted Williams).


  • After starting the week by losing 2 out of 3 to the pitiful Mariners, with both losses by one run, the Sox salvaged their week by taking three over the weekend from the Orioles. In the process, they finished up with a very good week from a Pythagorean point of view. The ineptitude of the Baltimore and Seattle offenses helped.


  • It wasn't enough for Boston to catch up with the red hot Tampa Bay Rays. the teams with the top two records in the AL will face off this week with first place in the balance, as they're starting to separate from the rest of the division.


  • One interesting note on the Tampa Bay-Boston standings is the home-road discrepancy. Currently, the Rays are one game ahead of the Red Sox in the East. But both teams have played significantly better at home than on the road, and Tampa Bay's played 34 at home vs. only 23 on the road. The Red Sox have played only 26 at home and 33 on the road. Based on their current winning percentages, the Rays are on pace to finish with 99 wins, the Red Sox 96. But looking at their relative records on the home and the road, and extrapolating those records, Boston's on a pace to win 100 games, and Tampa Bay's on pace for 96.


  • Having read absolutely nothing, I expect that Boston will have to make due without David Ortiz for a while. The fact that he couldn't finish his at-bat, and the rumors that he felt a "pop" inside the wrist make me think that surgery is likely in the offing. That would, of course, be damaging to the team's chances of repeating, but if he's healthy in early September, than it shouldn't be fatal.


  • The other injury news is Daisuke Matsuzaka's trip to the DL with a "strained" rotator cuff. The reports sound as if it is not as scary as it might be. The general tenor of the reporting is that he'll get a few weeks off and come back just fine.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/2/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.07(2)4.32(7)0.572(1)342535241

Chicago4.28(8)3.67(2)0.57(2)32243026-2

Oakland4.46(7)3.82(3)0.569(3)32253027-2

Toronto4.03(13)3.56(1)0.557(4)33263128-2

Tampa Bay4.51(5)4(5)0.555(5)322535223

Cleveland4.04(12)3.86(4)0.521(6)29272531-4

Los Angeles4.22(9)4.14(6)0.509(7)302834244

New York4.46(6)4.59(10)0.487(8)272928281

Minnesota4.66(4)4.8(11)0.486(9)272929272

Texas5.31(1)5.53(14)0.481(10)283029291

Detroit4.79(3)5.07(12)0.473(11)27292432-3

Baltimore4.05(10)4.43(8)0.46(12)253026291

Seattle4.05(11)5.09(13)0.397(13)23342136-2

Kansas City3.63(14)4.56(9)0.397(14)233423340




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Tampa Bay9963

Boston9666

Los Angeles9567

Chicago8775

Oakland8577




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9468

Tampa Bay9369

Chicago9072

Oakland9072

Toronto8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Toronto5.29(3)2.43(1)0.806(1)6143-2

Boston4.67(4)2.83(2)0.714(2)42420

Minnesota5.67(2)4.33(8)0.62(3)42420

Detroit3.67(10)3.33(3)0.543(4)33330

Texas6.17(1)6(14)0.513(5)33330

Seattle3.67(10)3.67(5)0.5(6)33330

Tampa Bay3.86(9)3.86(7)0.5(6)43521

Chicago3.29(13)3.57(4)0.462(8)34340

Cleveland4(7)4.67(9)0.43(9)3324-1

Kansas City4(7)4.71(10)0.425(10)3425-1

New York4.67(4)5.67(11)0.412(11)24331

Baltimore4.5(6)5.67(11)0.396(12)24240

Los Angeles2.83(14)3.83(6)0.365(13)24422

Oakland3.67(10)5.67(11)0.311(14)24240

Labels: , , ,

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link