Monday Pythagorean, 5/29/2008

4 straight wins, 3 straight losses. It's like the old statistics joke - with your head in the oven and feet in the freezer you are, on average, comfortable. Great followed by horrible makes a mediocre week.

• Mediocre offense. 6, 7 and 11 are good games. 3, 3, 2 and 0 are not. It was feast or famine all week.



• Mediocre pitching. The Lester no-hitter was followed by excellent starts from Masterson and Colon, as they allowed a total of four runs in the first three games against KC. But they allowed 8, 8, 3 and 6 over the next four.



• Has a team ever had a no-hitter and been no-hit during the course of the same week? I don't know the answer to that, but the Red Sox came frighteningly close, when Justin Duchscherer took one into the seventh on Saturday night.



• I had a bad feeling about the trip west. They left home with a seven-game winning streak, but over the last few games, it felt as if they were not playing well, and were fortunate enough to be playing a team that couldn't take advantage of it. That didn't seem likely to be the case in Oakland.



• It got worse very quickly. Before I'd had a chance to turn the game on Friday night, the Rays and Yankees had won (or were winning) big, and the Red Sox were down 3-0 to Rich Harden. Obviously, the next two days saw more of the same. There wasn't a point in any of those three games in Oakland where they seemed likely to win. They did have a lead, very briefly, on Sunday when Ortiz homered in the first, but they couldn't even hold it for three outs.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/26/2008

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Oakland	4.55	(5)	3.61	(1)	0.604	(1)	31	20	28	23	-3
Chicago	4.42	(8)	3.68	(2)	0.583	(2)	29	20	27	22	-2
Tampa Bay	4.6	(4)	4.02	(5)	0.561	(3)	28	22	30	20	2
Boston	5.11	(2)	4.49	(9)	0.559	(4)	30	23	31	22	1
Cleveland	4.04	(11)	3.76	(4)	0.533	(5)	27	23	23	27	-4
Los Angeles	4.38	(9)	4.17	(6)	0.523	(6)	27	25	30	22	3
Toronto	3.87	(13)	3.71	(3)	0.519	(7)	27	25	27	25	0
New York	4.44	(7)	4.46	(8)	0.498	(8)	25	25	25	25	0
Texas	5.21	(1)	5.48	(14)	0.477	(9)	25	27	26	26	1
Baltimore	4	(12)	4.28	(7)	0.469	(10)	23	26	24	25	1
Minnesota	4.54	(6)	4.86	(11)	0.469	(11)	23	27	25	25	2
Detroit	4.92	(3)	5.28	(13)	0.468	(12)	23	27	21	29	-2
Kansas City	3.58	(14)	4.54	(10)	0.393	(13)	20	30	21	29	1
Seattle	4.1	(10)	5.25	(12)	0.388	(14)	20	31	18	33	-2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Tampa Bay	97	65
Boston	95	67
Los Angeles	93	69
Oakland	89	73
Chicago	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Oakland	95	67
Chicago	93	69
Tampa Bay	93	69
Boston	92	70
Los Angeles	87	75

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Oakland	5.67	(5)	2.83	(4)	0.78	(1)	5	1	4	2	-1
Toronto	4	(9)	2	(2)	0.78	(1)	5	1	4	2	-1
Detroit	9	(1)	5.33	(10)	0.723	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
New York	7.17	(2)	4.33	(7)	0.715	(4)	4	2	5	1	1
Chicago	3	(12)	1.83	(1)	0.711	(5)	4	2	4	2	0
Los Angeles	2.83	(13)	2	(2)	0.654	(6)	4	2	4	2	0
Tampa Bay	4.83	(6)	4.17	(6)	0.567	(7)	3	3	5	1	2
Boston	4.57	(7)	4.14	(5)	0.545	(8)	4	3	4	3	0
Texas	6.43	(3)	5.86	(11)	0.542	(9)	4	3	4	3	0
Minnesota	6.29	(4)	7.43	(13)	0.424	(10)	3	4	4	3	1
Baltimore	3.5	(10)	5	(8)	0.342	(11)	2	4	1	5	-1
Cleveland	3.17	(11)	5.17	(9)	0.29	(12)	2	4	1	5	-1
Seattle	4.5	(8)	10.17	(14)	0.184	(13)	1	5	0	6	-1
Kansas City	2	(14)	6	(12)	0.118	(14)	1	6	0	7	-1