Monday, May 26, 2008

Monday Pythagorean, 5/29/2008

4 straight wins, 3 straight losses. It's like the old statistics joke - with your head in the oven and feet in the freezer you are, on average, comfortable. Great followed by horrible makes a mediocre week.

  • Mediocre offense. 6, 7 and 11 are good games. 3, 3, 2 and 0 are not. It was feast or famine all week.


  • Mediocre pitching. The Lester no-hitter was followed by excellent starts from Masterson and Colon, as they allowed a total of four runs in the first three games against KC. But they allowed 8, 8, 3 and 6 over the next four.


  • Has a team ever had a no-hitter and been no-hit during the course of the same week? I don't know the answer to that, but the Red Sox came frighteningly close, when Justin Duchscherer took one into the seventh on Saturday night.


  • I had a bad feeling about the trip west. They left home with a seven-game winning streak, but over the last few games, it felt as if they were not playing well, and were fortunate enough to be playing a team that couldn't take advantage of it. That didn't seem likely to be the case in Oakland.


  • It got worse very quickly. Before I'd had a chance to turn the game on Friday night, the Rays and Yankees had won (or were winning) big, and the Red Sox were down 3-0 to Rich Harden. Obviously, the next two days saw more of the same. There wasn't a point in any of those three games in Oakland where they seemed likely to win. They did have a lead, very briefly, on Sunday when Ortiz homered in the first, but they couldn't even hold it for three outs.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/26/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Oakland4.55(5)3.61(1)0.604(1)31202823-3

Chicago4.42(8)3.68(2)0.583(2)29202722-2

Tampa Bay4.6(4)4.02(5)0.561(3)282230202

Boston5.11(2)4.49(9)0.559(4)302331221

Cleveland4.04(11)3.76(4)0.533(5)27232327-4

Los Angeles4.38(9)4.17(6)0.523(6)272530223

Toronto3.87(13)3.71(3)0.519(7)272527250

New York4.44(7)4.46(8)0.498(8)252525250

Texas5.21(1)5.48(14)0.477(9)252726261

Baltimore4(12)4.28(7)0.469(10)232624251

Minnesota4.54(6)4.86(11)0.469(11)232725252

Detroit4.92(3)5.28(13)0.468(12)23272129-2

Kansas City3.58(14)4.54(10)0.393(13)203021291

Seattle4.1(10)5.25(12)0.388(14)20311833-2




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Tampa Bay9765

Boston9567

Los Angeles9369

Oakland8973

Chicago8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland9567

Chicago9369

Tampa Bay9369

Boston9270

Los Angeles8775




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Oakland5.67(5)2.83(4)0.78(1)5142-1

Toronto4(9)2(2)0.78(1)5142-1

Detroit9(1)5.33(10)0.723(3)42420

New York7.17(2)4.33(7)0.715(4)42511

Chicago3(12)1.83(1)0.711(5)42420

Los Angeles2.83(13)2(2)0.654(6)42420

Tampa Bay4.83(6)4.17(6)0.567(7)33512

Boston4.57(7)4.14(5)0.545(8)43430

Texas6.43(3)5.86(11)0.542(9)43430

Minnesota6.29(4)7.43(13)0.424(10)34431

Baltimore3.5(10)5(8)0.342(11)2415-1

Cleveland3.17(11)5.17(9)0.29(12)2415-1

Seattle4.5(8)10.17(14)0.184(13)1506-1

Kansas City2(14)6(12)0.118(14)1607-1

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