Monday, August 07, 2006

Monday Pythagorean - 8/7/2006

It has been a brutal 8 days in Red Sox nation. On Sunday morning, July 30, they were one game in the loss column ahead of the Yankees for the East, and the White Sox for the Wild Card. Since then, the Yankees have significantly improved their roster, while the Red Sox have lost Trot Nixon, Jason Varitek, Doug Mirabelli, Mike Lowell and 5 games. And they've been lucky to lose just 5 - 2 of their 3 wins have come in games in which they trailed heading to the bottom of the 9th. If Cleveland hadn't just traded their best reliever, they might be 1-7 instead. And, just to put a cherry on top, the Toronto Blue Jays, apparently demoralized when I pointed out that they weren't really a legitimate play-off contender at this point, chose to lose 5 straight to the Red Sox play-off competition.

Ugly. Very, very ugly.

  • None of that means, by the way, that they season's over and they're out of it. They are still very close to the play-offs, and there's a lot of baseball left, including several games with the teams with whom they're in direct competition.


  • Javy Lopez was a smart acquisition. Ken Huckaby can't hit. Period. Adam Stern is not a high price to pay. That said, Lopez has not had a good first week in a Red Sox uniform. 0-9, including a first-pitch, game-ending double play with the Sox down 3 and the bases loaded.


  • Toronto had a chance to help Boston this week. They didn't. One wonders if they'll lay down the next time they face the Red Sox, the way they lay down against the Yankees and White Sox this week. I suspect not.


  • I think that the Red Sox need to finish ahead of Chicago and Minnesota to get into the play-offs. They aren't going to catch New York. The Yankees, with the addition of Lidle and Abreu, are too strong right now, and the Red Sox are too banged up.


  • That said, they're 1 game behind Chicago and 3 behind New York. Those two teams play each other this week. If the Red Sox can go win 3 in Kansas City, they'll go into the weekend tied with one of 'em, or ahead of Chicago.







AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/7/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit5.23(6)3.93(1)0.628(1)704175365

New York5.56(2)4.67(5)0.58(2)634566423

Chicago5.71(1)4.87(7)0.572(3)624765443

Minnesota5.22(7)4.53(3)0.565(4)624865453

Boston5.51(3)4.97(10)0.547(5)605065455

Toronto5.23(5)4.94(8)0.527(6)585358530

Los Angeles4.92(9)4.65(4)0.526(7)58535754-1

Cleveland5.4(4)5.14(11)0.523(8)58524763-11

Texas5.06(8)4.96(9)0.509(9)57555656-1

Oakland4.48(13)4.42(2)0.506(10)565560514

Seattle4.69(11)4.67(6)0.502(11)55555357-2

Baltimore4.81(10)5.57(13)0.433(12)496350621

Tampa Bay4.46(14)5.4(12)0.413(13)466647651

Kansas City4.56(12)6.05(14)0.373(14)41703873-3




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit10953

New York9963

Chicago9765

Minnesota9666

Boston9666




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit10755

New York9765

Chicago9567

Minnesota9468

Boston9369




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York5.17(5)2.33(1)0.811(1)51510

Minnesota8.29(1)5.14(8)0.705(2)52520

Oakland4.17(11)2.67(2)0.694(3)42511

Detroit4.86(7)3.57(3)0.637(4)43521

Los Angeles4.86(7)3.71(4)0.62(5)4334-1

Chicago5.67(2)4.67(7)0.588(6)42420

Cleveland5(6)5.14(8)0.487(7)3425-1

Tampa Bay4.71(9)5.14(8)0.46(8)34431

Boston5.43(4)6.14(12)0.444(9)34340

Seattle3.67(12)4.17(6)0.442(10)3324-1

Texas5.57(3)6.43(13)0.435(11)34431

Baltimore3(13)3.83(5)0.39(12)24240

Kansas City4.43(10)8.43(14)0.235(13)2516-1

Toronto2.67(14)6(11)0.185(14)15150

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