Monday, July 24, 2006

Monday Pythagorean - 7/24/2006

So, they come off the all-star break with a bad weekend, the lead disappears, and everyone panics. One 5-2 week later, the lead is back to 2 1/2, and the panic seems...premature.

Losing Wakefield to the DL for a month is a bad thing. Getting Wells back, as may happen this week or next, would be a good thing, if he's ready.

They got very acceptable performances from Gabbard and Snyder in Seattle, but lost 2-3 because of poor hitting (Saturday), bad bullpen work (Sunday) and bad defense (both days). C'est la vie, but those two games were wasted opportunities. You get 5+ innings and 2 runs from Kason Gabbard making his Major League debut, it's a shame to lose that game.

Was anyone else thinking of game 2 of the 2005 season when Varitek homered off of Putz in the top of the 9th? April 5, 2005, the Red Sox trail the Yankees by one until Varitek homers off of Rivera in the top of the 9th to tie it. First batter in the bottom of the 9th homers to end the game. I was thinking about that after Varitek's home run in the 9th to tie it. I was expecting what happened to happen - I don't know why, but that's exactly what I was thinking of, and I just saw it coming.

For all the talk about how we know the Wild Card isn't coming out of the East, the Red Sox and White Sox are tied, with the Yankees only 2 1/2 back...




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/24/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit5.21(6)3.85(1)0.636(1)623666324

Chicago5.68(1)4.76(7)0.58(2)564159383

New York5.55(2)4.75(6)0.571(3)554156401

Boston5.49(4)4.81(9)0.56(4)544359385

Toronto5.42(5)4.84(10)0.552(5)544455431

Minnesota4.99(8)4.49(3)0.548(6)534456413

Cleveland5.51(3)5.14(11)0.531(7)52454354-9

Texas4.99(7)4.77(8)0.521(8)52475148-1

Los Angeles4.71(11)4.69(4)0.502(9)494950481

Seattle4.77(10)4.74(5)0.502(10)49494751-2

Oakland4.47(13)4.48(2)0.499(11)494951472

Baltimore4.83(9)5.61(13)0.432(12)435745552

Tampa Bay4.33(14)5.32(12)0.407(13)405941581

Kansas City4.52(12)5.89(14)0.381(14)37613464-3




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit10953

Chicago9963

Boston9963

New York9567

Minnesota9468




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit10755

Chicago9765

Boston9567

New York9468

Minnesota9270




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Toronto6.43(1)4(4)0.704(1)5243-1

Minnesota6.29(2)4(4)0.696(2)52611

Boston4.57(9)3.71(3)0.594(3)43521

Kansas City3.57(13)3(1)0.579(4)4325-2

Detroit4.67(8)4.5(7)0.517(5)33421

Oakland5(6)5(8)0.5(6)33330

Los Angeles5(6)5.29(10)0.475(7)34431

Chicago3.17(14)3.5(2)0.454(8)3324-1

Texas4(11)4.43(6)0.454(9)34431

Seattle4.5(10)5(8)0.452(10)33330

Cleveland5.67(3)6.33(12)0.449(11)3324-1

Baltimore5.5(5)7(13)0.391(12)24240

Tampa Bay5.57(4)7.14(14)0.388(13)3425-1

New York4(11)5.43(11)0.364(14)34340

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