Monday Pythagorean Report - 6/5

Not a great week for the Red Sox, but it was saved from disastrous by their win on Wednesday in Toronto with David Pauley making his Major League debut. That was set up for a Toronto sweep, but the bats came alive, and the bullpen shut down the Blue Jays after Pauley struggled through 4 1/3.

• Speaking of the Blue Jays, they've won the first 2 games of a 3 games series 6 times this year, including twice this week. They've lost the 3rd game all 6 times. They had an opportunity to make real headway in the division this week - they made some, but lost to Boston on Wednesday against a rookie making his debut, and then lost to Tampa on Sunday.



• A week ago, I expressed skepticism about the Tigers, speculating that they were not, in fact, the best team in baseball, rather that their record reflected a very easy early season schedule and they were playing slightly over their heads in addition. This week they played 7 games at home, against the Yankees and Red Sox, and lost 5 of them. I said last week that I didn't expect them to finish ahead of Boston or New York - that remains the case.



• A very impressive 5-2 week on the road for the Yankees. Unlike a couple of weeks ago, when they came to Boston and everyone bemoaned how beat-up they were (Matsui missed 3 games in that series and Sheffield one - that was it), they really did have some personnel issues this week as Sheffield went back on the DL and Jeter, Giambi and Rodriguez all missed time to nicks or illness.



• Once again, the Yankees moved ahead of the Red Sox, as their win on Saturday, coupled with Boston's loss, moved the Yankees into first place. Once again, it lasted for only one day, as they traded places again on Sunday. Both teams have an opportunity to take the lead this week, as they go head-to-head over the next four nights.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/5/2006

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	4.93	(8)	3.82	(1)	0.614	(1)	35	22	37	20	2
New York	5.98	(1)	4.75	(4)	0.604	(2)	33	22	33	22	0
Chicago	5.46	(5)	4.57	(3)	0.581	(3)	33	23	34	22	1
Toronto	5.76	(3)	5.04	(8)	0.561	(4)	31	24	31	24	0
Boston	5.5	(4)	4.83	(5)	0.559	(5)	30	24	33	21	3
Cleveland	5.79	(2)	5.23	(11)	0.546	(6)	31	25	28	28	-3
Texas	5.2	(6)	4.91	(6)	0.526	(7)	29	27	30	26	1
Oakland	4.44	(12)	4.44	(2)	0.5	(8)	29	28	27	30	-2
Seattle	4.69	(9)	4.91	(7)	0.479	(9)	28	30	25	33	-3
Baltimore	5.18	(7)	5.75	(13)	0.452	(10)	26	31	26	31	0
Los Angeles	4.61	(10)	5.16	(9)	0.448	(11)	25	31	25	31	0
Minnesota	4.46	(11)	5.16	(9)	0.434	(12)	24	32	25	31	1
Tampa Bay	4.28	(13)	5.6	(12)	0.38	(13)	22	35	23	34	1
Kansas City	3.89	(14)	6.5	(14)	0.281	(14)	15	39	14	40	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Detroit	105	57
Boston	99	63
Chicago	98	64
New York	97	65
Toronto	91	71

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Detroit	101	61
New York	98	64
Chicago	96	66
Boston	93	69
Toronto	91	71

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Oakland	4.29	(11)	2.57	(1)	0.718	(1)	5	2	4	3	-1
Seattle	6.33	(3)	3.83	(3)	0.715	(2)	4	2	3	3	-1
Toronto	7.5	(1)	5.83	(10)	0.613	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
New York	6.14	(5)	5	(4)	0.593	(4)	4	3	5	2	1
Baltimore	6.67	(2)	5.67	(8)	0.574	(5)	3	3	3	3	0
Los Angeles	6.17	(4)	5.33	(6)	0.566	(6)	3	3	4	2	1
Texas	5.5	(8)	5.17	(5)	0.529	(7)	3	3	4	2	1
Boston	5.33	(9)	5.33	(6)	0.5	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Chicago	5	(10)	5.86	(11)	0.428	(9)	3	4	2	5	-1
Cleveland	5.71	(6)	6.86	(13)	0.417	(10)	3	4	4	3	1
Tampa Bay	5.67	(7)	7.17	(14)	0.394	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Minnesota	2.43	(14)	3.29	(2)	0.365	(12)	3	4	2	5	-1
Kansas City	4	(12)	6.33	(12)	0.301	(13)	2	4	3	3	1
Detroit	3.57	(13)	5.71	(9)	0.297	(14)	2	5	2	5	0