Monday, May 22, 2006

Monday Pythagorean Report - 5/22/2006

With about 25% of the season played, the Detroit Tigers are the surprise of the AL, and beginning to look as though they've got a chance to hang in there. I haven't looked at their roster or results carefully, yet, so I'm not sure whether I think that they're for real. I know the Orioles were on a 102 win pace at this time last year, and I didn't believe in them - at all - and the Tigers could well be similar. Or not. I won't know until I look. (I may get a chance today, I may not...)

  • The Red Sox played 2 3-game series on the road last week, and took 2 of 3 in each. 2 of 3 on the road is obviously a great pace, and if you could do it all year, you'd finish with a great record. That said, the week felt like a missed opportunity. The loss in Baltimore ended on a caught stealing, and the eventual winning run scored on a wild pitch. In the top of the first, the Red Sox had runners at 2nd and 3rd with no outs and only scored 1 run, and then were totally shut down for the next 7 innings.


  • Speaking of the 4-3 loss in Baltimore, when David Ortiz hits a 2-run 9th innings HR when his team's down by 3, people call it "clutch," whether they win or lose. If Alex Rodriguez had done that, and the team had, as the Red Sox did, lost anyway, the Yankee fans would have called it "stat-padding"...


  • One of the advantages of inter-league play accrues to the National League teams at home, as AL pitchers aren't used to hitting. That said, Boston's pitcher's went 3-9 with a HR and 2 RBI in Philadelphia this weekend.


  • On Saturday night, Josh Beckett and Alex Gonzalez each homered. It may be the most unlikely pairing of HR in one game since Darren Lewis and Jeff Frye went back-to-back to win a game against Minnesota in 1999.


  • The Alex Gonzalez HR brought all of the "he's a great-super-stupendous-awesome defender and he's not here to hit and if he hits .230 that's just fine" analysts out of the woodwork. And it was a nice hit. Which is good, because it was the only one that he had on the week. Someone tried to make the point that the only reason they won in Baltimore on Tuesday was because of Gonzalez glove, and I just laughed. With a shortstop who'd gone 1-5 instead of 0-5 in that game, they probably would have won by a bigger margin. But for some reason, some people can't see the hits he didn't get, just the plays he made that they're convinced the no one else would have.


  • I heard on the radio yesterday morning that Alex Gonzalez had retired. Unfortunately, it was Philadelphia's Alex Gonzalez and not Boston's...





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/22/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit4.88(8)3.47(1)0.652(1)281529141

Chicago5.65(3)4.42(2)0.611(2)261728152

New York5.69(2)4.52(3)0.603(3)25172418-1

Boston5.41(5)4.78(5)0.557(4)231825162

Cleveland5.8(1)5.18(9)0.551(5)24202222-2

Toronto5.53(4)5.02(8)0.544(6)232023200

Texas5.21(6)4.84(6)0.534(7)23202221-1

Oakland4.53(11)4.6(4)0.493(8)212222211

Seattle4.58(10)4.89(7)0.47(9)21242025-1

Minnesota4.8(9)5.48(12)0.439(10)192519250

Baltimore4.98(7)5.77(13)0.433(11)192520241

Los Angeles4.16(12)5.3(10)0.391(12)172717270

Tampa Bay4.14(13)5.34(11)0.385(13)172720243

Kansas City3.76(14)6.12(14)0.29(14)12291031-2




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit10953

Chicago10557

Boston9963

New York9369

Toronto8775




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit10755

Chicago10161

New York9666

Boston9270

Toronto8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland5(6)3.5(1)0.658(1)42511

Chicago5.71(2)4(5)0.658(1)5243-1

Boston6.33(1)4.5(6)0.651(3)42420

Oakland4.67(9)3.5(1)0.629(4)42420

Tampa Bay4.83(8)3.83(4)0.604(5)42511

Detroit4.33(10)3.67(3)0.576(6)33512

Texas5(6)4.57(7)0.541(7)4334-1

Minnesota5.14(4)5.29(9)0.487(8)3425-1

New York5.14(4)5.86(11)0.441(9)34340

Seattle5.67(3)6.67(12)0.426(10)33330

Toronto3.5(11)5(8)0.342(11)24240

Baltimore3.17(13)5.33(10)0.278(12)24240

Kansas City3.33(12)6.67(12)0.22(13)1506-1

Los Angeles3.17(13)7.5(14)0.171(14)15150

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link