Monday Pythagorean Report - 5/15

For the the Red Sox, 3 games in NY, winning 2 of them, makes this a decent week. The weekend was, however, a total washout - literally. They lost a game Friday night that should have been stopped in the 3rd inning, but wasn't. They were called off the field trailing in the bottom of the 6th, and it goes into the books as a loss, and that was the last time that they played.

Because of the rainouts, there's basically nothing to add to my analysis of the my analysis of the Red Sox/Yankee series. Matt Clement struggled on Friday, but really had only one bad inning, the 3rd, where he gave up 3 runs. No runs allowed in the 1st, 4th and 5th, and a solo HR in the 2nd. Not a good outing, but not the disaster that some have made it out to be. Had the Red Sox managed a hit when they had runners at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out in the 3rd, and again with the same situation in the 4th, they'd have been tied 4-4 after 5, and people wouldn't have been quite so hasty and vocal about Clement's shortcomings.

This week, there are 3 in Baltimore (and it looks as though they'll be able to play tonight.) Then the (unfortunate) opening of interleague play with 3 in Philadelphia. I don't like interleague play. I don't like it at all. There are no interleague series that interest me, and I think it's a gimmick, and it skews competition, and it turns me off greatly. But they're going to do it anyway...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/15/2006

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	4.97	(8)	3.43	(1)	0.663	(1)	25	12	24	13	-1
New York	5.8	(3)	4.26	(2)	0.638	(2)	22	13	21	14	-1
Chicago	5.64	(4)	4.5	(3)	0.602	(3)	22	14	24	12	2
Toronto	5.86	(2)	5.03	(9)	0.57	(4)	21	16	21	16	0
Boston	5.26	(6)	4.83	(6)	0.539	(5)	19	16	21	14	2
Cleveland	5.92	(1)	5.45	(10)	0.538	(6)	20	18	17	21	-3
Texas	5.25	(7)	4.89	(7)	0.533	(7)	19	17	19	17	0
Seattle	4.41	(11)	4.62	(4)	0.479	(8)	19	20	17	22	-2
Oakland	4.51	(10)	4.78	(5)	0.473	(9)	18	19	18	19	0
Baltimore	5.26	(5)	5.84	(13)	0.452	(10)	17	21	18	20	1
Los Angeles	4.32	(12)	4.95	(8)	0.438	(11)	17	21	16	22	-1
Minnesota	4.73	(9)	5.51	(11)	0.43	(12)	16	21	17	20	1
Tampa Bay	4.03	(13)	5.58	(12)	0.355	(13)	13	25	15	23	2
Kansas City	3.83	(14)	6.03	(14)	0.303	(14)	11	24	10	25	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Chicago	108	54
Detroit	105	57
New York	97	65
Boston	97	65
Toronto	92	70

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Detroit	107	55
New York	102	60
Chicago	100	62
Toronto	92	70
Boston	89	73

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Toronto	6.29	(3)	3.57	(2)	0.738	(1)	5	2	5	2	0
Minnesota	8	(1)	4.67	(4)	0.728	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Detroit	4.6	(10)	3.2	(1)	0.66	(3)	3	2	4	1	1
Seattle	5.83	(5)	4.17	(3)	0.649	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Baltimore	7	(2)	5	(7)	0.649	(4)	3	2	4	1	1
Boston	5.5	(8)	4.75	(5)	0.567	(6)	2	2	2	2	0
Texas	5	(9)	5.75	(10)	0.436	(7)	2	2	2	2	0
Oakland	4.17	(11)	4.83	(6)	0.433	(8)	3	3	2	4	-1
Kansas City	6.17	(4)	7.17	(13)	0.432	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Los Angeles	5.67	(6)	6.67	(12)	0.426	(10)	3	3	2	4	-1
Chicago	5.6	(7)	7.6	(14)	0.364	(11)	2	3	2	3	0
Cleveland	4	(12)	5.83	(11)	0.334	(12)	2	4	0	6	-2
New York	3.33	(13)	5.17	(8)	0.31	(13)	2	4	3	3	1
Tampa Bay	2.17	(14)	5.17	(8)	0.169	(14)	1	5	2	4	1