Monday, May 08, 2006

Monday Pythagorean Report - 5/8

A quick flashback, from last Monday, one week ago today:
From June 6-12 of 2005, the Red Sox went 2-4, averaging 4.5 R/G and allowing 6.3. The following week, they scored 6.2, allowed 1.8 and went 5-1. The moral of the story is, as ugly a week as it was, it has little-to-no predictive value for the week(s) to come.

How perceptive was that remark? Well, last Monday, the Red Sox were coming off a week in which they had gone 2-4, scoring 4.5 runs/game and allowing 7.3. Today, we're talking about a week in which they went 5-1, leading the league in runs scored/game (7.5) and runs allowed/game (3.83).

You see, when I tell you something is temporary and shouldn't be panicked about, you need to listen.

Thus endeth the horn-blowing for the morning...

  • The offense was spread throughout the lineup. They didn't get much from the catchers, but Varitek's grand slam in the first against Kris Benson was the biggest blow in Sunday's win over Baltimore. David Ortiz struggled, but had one of the most memorable hits of the season when he drove a Mike Myers pitch through the wind and into the Sox bullpen on Monday.


  • What will happen, as so frequently happens with Ortiz' late-inning hits, is that people will forget the situation - Mark Loretta had just given the Red Sox the lead. Ortiz' HR extended the lead, but didn't create it.


  • Youkilis had 11 hits (including 2 HR), 4 walks and a HBP on the week for a .440/.533/.720 line.


  • Mike Lowell had 9 hits, and 6 of them were doubles.


  • Wily Mo Pena hit .409 and drew a walk. He also hit 2 SF, leaving his OBP for the week below his AVG.


  • Manny Ramirez walked 8 more times, and is on pace for about 150 on the year. His SLG hasn't reached .500 yet (.495) but his OBP is .459. He's having an immensely valuable season through the first month-plus.


  • They got offense from the middle-infield this week. With only this year to look at, you'd think that Loretta and Gonzalez are similar hitters. Looking at them with a little bit more realistic perspective, you think that Loretta's waking up, and they just got the fluke good week of the year from Gonzalez.


  • They pitching was (obviously) good, too. Very nice starts from Clement and DiNardo, a couple of decent efforts from Wakefield, Schilling was good. Beckett's start was a struggle, but not awful - they ended up losing that game because of a 2-run homer allowed by Foulke, and the first run given up by Papelbon on the season.


  • Strong week from Timlin. Despite the blemish against Toronto, Papelbon was good again. Tavarez shows signs of coming around. Seanez has actually been pretty good - except for the home runs... ("And other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?") Again, it's one week. This week was pretty good, the one that preceded it...wasn't.



Regression to the mean is a powerful force. I don't expect them to go 5-1 again this week. Nor do I expect 2-4. Of course, neither would shock me...





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/8/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York6.31(1)4.07(3)0.691(1)2091811-2

Detroit5.03(7)3.47(1)0.664(2)21112012-1

Chicago5.65(4)4(2)0.653(3)20112292

Cleveland6.28(2)5.38(10)0.571(4)18141715-1

Texas5.28(5)4.78(7)0.545(5)171517150

Boston5.23(6)4.84(8)0.535(6)171419122

Toronto5.77(3)5.37(9)0.533(7)161416140

Oakland4.58(9)4.77(6)0.481(8)151616151

Seattle4.15(11)4.7(5)0.444(9)15181320-2

Los Angeles4.06(13)4.63(4)0.441(10)141814180

Baltimore5(8)5.97(14)0.42(11)141914190

Tampa Bay4.38(10)5.66(11)0.385(12)122013191

Minnesota4.1(12)5.68(12)0.355(13)112013182

Kansas City3.34(14)5.79(13)0.268(14)821722-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Chicago11547

New York10161

Detroit10161

Boston9963

Cleveland8676




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York11052

Chicago10755

Detroit10656

Cleveland9171

Boston8973




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston7.5(1)3.83(1)0.774(1)51510

New York6.5(2)4.5(11)0.662(2)42511

Cleveland6.14(3)4.57(12)0.632(3)43430

Chicago5(5)4(2)0.601(4)43521

Oakland4.57(7)4.14(5)0.545(5)43430

Texas4.71(6)4.29(8)0.543(6)43430

Minnesota4.29(8)4(2)0.532(7)43430

Toronto5.43(4)5.14(13)0.525(8)43430

Detroit4(9)4(2)0.5(9)43430

Seattle3.29(11)4.14(5)0.396(10)3425-1

Tampa Bay2.86(12)4.29(8)0.323(11)25250

Baltimore4(9)6.57(14)0.287(12)2516-1

Los Angeles2.57(13)4.43(10)0.27(13)25250

Kansas City2(14)4.14(5)0.209(14)16251

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link