Monday, May 01, 2006

Monday Pythagorean Report - 5/1

Right now, the Red Sox record (14-10) says that they're a 90+ win team. But nothing else about the way that they've performed says it. They've been enormously lucky to compile the record they've got with the way that they've played. Right now they should be 5 games behind the Yankees - instead, they'll take the field tonight for the start of the season head-to-head series tied for first in the East. Lucky. Very, very lucky.

  • This was an ugly, ugly week. And it continued the ugliness that started last week, with the trip to Toronto. When you can't score runs, and you can't prevent the other team from scoring, you tend not to win games. That's where the Red Sox have been for the past week-and-a-half.


  • Josh Beckett hit a rough spot in his last two outings.
    • In his first 28 AL innings, he allowed 1 HR and 5 earned runs.

    • In his last 4 innings of work, there have been 5 HR and 11 earned runs.

    • ERA for first 28 AL innings: 1.61

    • ERA for next 4 AL innings: 24.75


  • The Red Sox played 6 games this week. They scored first in one of them. They trailed at the end of the 3rd inning in each of them by the scores of:
    • 4-2

    • 3-0

    • 6-0

    • 4-0

    • 4-0

    • 2-0

    Cumulative score at the end of the 3rd inning for the week: 23-2
    You don't win many games that way...


  • From June 6-12 of 2005, the Red Sox went 2-4, averaging 4.5 R/G and allowing 6.3. The following week, they scored 6.2, allowed 1.8 and went 5-1. The moral of the story is, as ugly a week as it was, it has little-to-no predictive value for the week(s) to come.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/1/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit5.32(6)3.32(1)0.703(1)187169-2

New York6.26(2)3.96(2)0.698(2)1671310-3

Chicago5.83(4)4(3)0.666(3)1681771

Cleveland6.32(1)5.6(10)0.555(4)14111312-1

Texas5.44(5)4.92(6)0.546(5)14111312-1

Toronto5.87(3)5.43(9)0.535(6)121112110

Los Angeles4.48(11)4.68(4)0.48(7)121312130

Oakland4.58(10)4.96(7)0.464(8)111312121

Boston4.68(9)5.08(8)0.463(9)121314112

Baltimore5.27(7)5.81(11)0.456(10)121413131

Seattle4.38(12)4.85(5)0.454(11)12141115-1

Tampa Bay4.8(8)6.04(12)0.396(12)101511141

Minnesota4.04(13)6.17(13)0.316(13)8169151

Kansas City3.77(14)6.32(14)0.28(14)616517-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Chicago11547

Detroit10458

New York9270

Boston9171

Toronto8577




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit11250

New York11052

Chicago10953

Cleveland8973

Texas8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit6.33(3)1.67(1)0.92(1)6042-2

New York6.33(3)3.33(2)0.764(2)5142-1

Oakland6.4(2)4.2(5)0.684(3)32411

Chicago5.5(6)3.83(4)0.659(4)42420

Cleveland7.33(1)5.5(9)0.629(5)4233-1

Texas5.5(6)5(6)0.543(6)33330

Toronto5.67(5)5.83(12)0.487(7)33330

Los Angeles3.33(12)3.5(3)0.478(8)3324-1

Seattle4.33(9)5.17(8)0.42(9)33421

Baltimore4.33(9)5.67(11)0.38(10)24240

Tampa Bay3.67(11)5(6)0.362(11)24331

Boston4.5(8)7.33(14)0.29(12)24240

Kansas City3.2(13)5.6(10)0.264(13)14140

Minnesota1.83(14)6.67(13)0.086(14)15241

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