Monday Pythagorean Report - 5/1

Right now, the Red Sox record (14-10) says that they're a 90+ win team. But nothing else about the way that they've performed says it. They've been enormously lucky to compile the record they've got with the way that they've played. Right now they should be 5 games behind the Yankees - instead, they'll take the field tonight for the start of the season head-to-head series tied for first in the East. Lucky. Very, very lucky.

• This was an ugly, ugly week. And it continued the ugliness that started last week, with the trip to Toronto. When you can't score runs, and you can't prevent the other team from scoring, you tend not to win games. That's where the Red Sox have been for the past week-and-a-half.



• Josh Beckett hit a rough spot in his last two outings.
  
  • In his first 28 AL innings, he allowed 1 HR and 5 earned runs.
  
  
  • In his last 4 innings of work, there have been 5 HR and 11 earned runs.
  
  
  • ERA for first 28 AL innings: 1.61
  
  
  • ERA for next 4 AL innings: 24.75



• The Red Sox played 6 games this week. They scored first in one of them. They trailed at the end of the 3rd inning in each of them by the scores of:
  
  • 4-2
  
  
  • 3-0
  
  
  • 6-0
  
  
  • 4-0
  
  
  • 4-0
  
  
  • 2-0
  
  Cumulative score at the end of the 3rd inning for the week: 23-2
  You don't win many games that way...



• From June 6-12 of 2005, the Red Sox went 2-4, averaging 4.5 R/G and allowing 6.3. The following week, they scored 6.2, allowed 1.8 and went 5-1. The moral of the story is, as ugly a week as it was, it has little-to-no predictive value for the week(s) to come.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/1/2006

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	5.32	(6)	3.32	(1)	0.703	(1)	18	7	16	9	-2
New York	6.26	(2)	3.96	(2)	0.698	(2)	16	7	13	10	-3
Chicago	5.83	(4)	4	(3)	0.666	(3)	16	8	17	7	1
Cleveland	6.32	(1)	5.6	(10)	0.555	(4)	14	11	13	12	-1
Texas	5.44	(5)	4.92	(6)	0.546	(5)	14	11	13	12	-1
Toronto	5.87	(3)	5.43	(9)	0.535	(6)	12	11	12	11	0
Los Angeles	4.48	(11)	4.68	(4)	0.48	(7)	12	13	12	13	0
Oakland	4.58	(10)	4.96	(7)	0.464	(8)	11	13	12	12	1
Boston	4.68	(9)	5.08	(8)	0.463	(9)	12	13	14	11	2
Baltimore	5.27	(7)	5.81	(11)	0.456	(10)	12	14	13	13	1
Seattle	4.38	(12)	4.85	(5)	0.454	(11)	12	14	11	15	-1
Tampa Bay	4.8	(8)	6.04	(12)	0.396	(12)	10	15	11	14	1
Minnesota	4.04	(13)	6.17	(13)	0.316	(13)	8	16	9	15	1
Kansas City	3.77	(14)	6.32	(14)	0.28	(14)	6	16	5	17	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Chicago	115	47
Detroit	104	58
New York	92	70
Boston	91	71
Toronto	85	77

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Detroit	112	50
New York	110	52
Chicago	109	53
Cleveland	89	73
Texas	88	74

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	6.33	(3)	1.67	(1)	0.92	(1)	6	0	4	2	-2
New York	6.33	(3)	3.33	(2)	0.764	(2)	5	1	4	2	-1
Oakland	6.4	(2)	4.2	(5)	0.684	(3)	3	2	4	1	1
Chicago	5.5	(6)	3.83	(4)	0.659	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Cleveland	7.33	(1)	5.5	(9)	0.629	(5)	4	2	3	3	-1
Texas	5.5	(6)	5	(6)	0.543	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
Toronto	5.67	(5)	5.83	(12)	0.487	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Los Angeles	3.33	(12)	3.5	(3)	0.478	(8)	3	3	2	4	-1
Seattle	4.33	(9)	5.17	(8)	0.42	(9)	3	3	4	2	1
Baltimore	4.33	(9)	5.67	(11)	0.38	(10)	2	4	2	4	0
Tampa Bay	3.67	(11)	5	(6)	0.362	(11)	2	4	3	3	1
Boston	4.5	(8)	7.33	(14)	0.29	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Kansas City	3.2	(13)	5.6	(10)	0.264	(13)	1	4	1	4	0
Minnesota	1.83	(14)	6.67	(13)	0.086	(14)	1	5	2	4	1