Monday, April 24, 2006

Monday Pythagorean Report - 4/24

The Red Sox record matched their performance this week, which it didn't for the first couple. The good news is that when you can have a 3-game losing streak and still put a winning week together, that's a good thing. It actually had the potential to be a very good week until Beckett and Timlin started giving up gopher balls on Friday night.

  • It was good to see Manny finally hit a couple out. He's got a very interesting line right now (.273/.407/.379), in that he hasn't hit much, and has only got 3 extra-base hits, but he's walked 15 times, so his OBP is over .400.


  • Alex Gonzalez continues to be every bit the black hole that I feared. The 2 runs that he scored in Sunday's game were the first 2 that he's scored this year. Granted that we're still talking about a small sample size for him, too, and that he's likely to improve upon his current .211/.281/.263, I still see no reason to think that his defensive contributions approach his offensive cost. I cannot believe that he'll still be playing for this team in August if there isn't a massive improvement in his contribution.


  • Not that Loretta's been much better. He's only at .237/.291/.325 which, the walk-off dramatics on Patriots' Day notwithstanding, isn't going to get it done. Pedroia can come up and take one of those middle infield spots, but he can't take both. Loretta is, to this point, less concerning than Gonzalez simply because he's a player with a positive track record. It's much easier to look at his line and say "small sample size - he'll improve" than it is to look at Gonzalez' and say the same thing.


  • Keith Foulke was excellent yesterday, and very good Friday night. He took the loss on Friday, because Seanez gave up a 2-run double after Francona lifted him. I didn't understand, and still don't, why he was pulled from that game. In any event, on the week Foulke pitched in 5 games, throwing 6 2/3 innings and giving up 2 runs, 7 base-runners and having 6 strikeouts. He looks like he's just about all the way back.


  • One of the things that Bill James, among others, has talked about is optimal bullpen usage, and the foolishness of saving your best relief pitcher for pitching the last 3 outs with a lead that you may not have when it's time to get those outs. Yesterday's performance illustrated what he's talking about, and Francona, and the Sox, handled it just about perfectly, or at least it would look like it if Foulke were still their best reliever. The keys outs of that game came in the 6th inning with the starter tiring, the lead down to 1 run, and 2 on with 1 out. Instead of going to the "middle relief" because it was the middle innings, Francona went to Foulke, who closed the door. Papelbon gets a save for pitching the 9th with a 3-run lead, but the key relief performance was Foulke's, who kept the lead when it was at its most precarious.






AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/24/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York6.24(1)4.18(3)0.676(1)11698-2

Chicago5.94(3)4.06(2)0.668(2)1261351

Detroit5(8)3.84(1)0.618(3)1271270

Toronto5.94(4)5.29(9)0.553(4)98980

Texas5.42(6)4.89(6)0.547(5)1091090

Boston4.74(11)4.37(4)0.537(6)1091272

Cleveland6(2)5.63(10)0.529(7)1091090

Los Angeles4.84(9)5.05(7)0.481(8)9101091

Baltimore5.55(5)5.85(11)0.476(9)10101191

Seattle4.4(12)4.75(5)0.465(10)911713-2

Tampa Bay5.16(7)6.37(13)0.405(11)8118110

Minnesota4.78(10)6(12)0.397(12)7117110

Oakland4.11(13)5.16(8)0.397(13)8118110

Kansas City3.94(14)6.53(14)0.284(14)512413-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Chicago11745

Detroit10260

Boston10260

Baltimore8973

New York8676




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Chicago10953

New York10755

Detroit10062

Toronto8973

Boston8973




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago6.67(3)1.17(1)0.96(1)60600

Texas7.33(1)5.17(10)0.655(2)42511

Toronto5.8(4)4.2(4)0.644(3)32320

New York5.2(8)3.8(3)0.64(4)32320

Detroit4.29(9)3.71(2)0.565(5)43521

Los Angeles5.43(6)4.86(6)0.551(6)43430

Boston5.29(7)4.86(6)0.539(7)43430

Cleveland7.14(2)7.29(12)0.491(8)34340

Baltimore5.71(5)6.86(11)0.417(9)34431

Seattle3.86(12)4.86(6)0.396(10)3416-2

Oakland3.83(13)5(9)0.381(11)24240

Kansas City3.67(14)4.83(5)0.376(12)24240

Tampa Bay4.17(10)7.33(13)0.262(13)2415-1

Minnesota4(11)7.83(14)0.226(14)15150

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