Monday, April 17, 2006

Monday Pythagorean Report - 4/17

It was my position coming into the season that the Red Sox would be a good offensive team again this year. I think that I'm right, but it sure hasn't been so far. What they have been is a great pitching team, particularly when Schilling and Beckett have been on the mound, and Papelbon's been basically untouchable, so they've played numerous close games, and when they've taken a lead into the 7th inning, they've won them all. But I've said it before and I'll say it again - they aren't going to keep winning at this rate with an offense that doesn't score more runs than this.

A big part of the problem has been Manny Ramirez. Another big part is that Alex Gonzalez has been every bit the black hole that I feared he'd be. And the lineup Saturday included Josh Bard and Alex Cora and Adam Stern. It was very, very ugly. When Pena's double bounced into the stands instead of the triangle, it left them with runners at 2nd and 3rd with no outs. The next four hitters due up were:
Bard
Gonzalez
Stern
Cora

The results were, unfortunately, predictable. They did get a great at-bat from Josh Bard, who fouled off numerous pitches and worked a walk. But then, Gonzalez struck out, Stern struck out and Cora grounded out, ending their 1 serious threat for the day.

Ugly...



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/17/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York6.67(1)4.33(3)0.687(1)8466-2

Detroit5.42(6)3.92(1)0.644(2)8475-1

Cleveland5.33(7)4.67(4)0.561(3)75750

Boston4.42(12)4.08(2)0.536(4)66842

Toronto6(2)5.75(12)0.519(5)66660

Baltimore5.46(5)5.31(10)0.513(6)76760

Minnesota5.17(8)5.08(7)0.507(7)66660

Chicago5.58(4)5.5(11)0.507(8)66751

Seattle4.69(9)4.69(5)0.5(9)7667-1

Texas4.54(10)4.77(6)0.477(10)6758-1

Tampa Bay5.62(3)5.92(13)0.476(11)67761

Los Angeles4.5(11)5.17(8)0.437(12)57661

Oakland4.23(13)5.23(9)0.404(13)58671

Kansas City4.09(14)7.45(14)0.25(14)3829-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10854

Detroit9567

Cleveland9567

Chicago9567

Baltimore8775




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10953

Detroit10458

Cleveland9171

Boston8874

Toronto8478




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York7.5(1)4.83(5)0.691(1)42420

Texas5.33(6)4(1)0.629(2)4233-1

Minnesota5.83(5)4.67(3)0.601(3)42511

Tampa Bay5.86(4)4.86(7)0.585(4)43430

Toronto6.33(3)5.33(10)0.578(5)33330

Chicago6.5(2)5.67(12)0.562(6)33512

Seattle5.17(7)4.67(3)0.546(7)33330

Baltimore5.14(9)5(8)0.513(8)43521

Los Angeles4.83(10)4.83(5)0.5(9)33330

Cleveland5.17(7)5.5(11)0.471(10)3324-1

Boston3.33(14)4.17(2)0.399(11)24331

Detroit3.83(13)5(8)0.381(12)24240

Oakland4(12)6(13)0.323(13)2415-1

Kansas City4.17(11)8.67(14)0.207(14)1506-1

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