Friday, April 28, 2006

NFL Draft Preview!!!

Q: Everyone else has got their own mock drafts, so why not me?

A: Because I don't know enough about the players, or the teams' plans, to have a mock draft that means anything.

Q: And that's different from 90% of the mock drafts out there in what way, exactly?

A: Umm...well...I guess it isn't...


I've just got a couple of observations that I'd like to make before Saturday arrives.


  1. Point 1 is important - all observations should be paired with the thought "what the hell does he know?" Then assume that the correct answer is "nothing."


  2. All indications are that the Houston Texans are going to start by making Reggie Bush the number one pick. I think that's a mistake. It's not that I don't think Reggie Bush is a spectacular athlete, because he is. Or that I don't think he'll be an exciting and successful NFL player, because he will. But he won't have the biggest positive impact. I don't know which player that is, but it's probably a defensive lineman, an offensive lineman, or a quarterback. In my opinion. Bush will look spectacular, he'll make all of the ESPN highlight shows, and he'll go to the play-offs. If he's on a team with a good enough defense, offensive line and quarterback. I don't think a speed/finesse back is ever an essential building block, and I'd never draft one first overall.


  3. There's a lot of talk about LenDale White, Bush's USC teammate, dropping. Possibly out of the first round. In my opinion, White, as a pro, will be a more productive player in terms of helping a team win football games than Bush will. I loved Barry Sanders, but no matter how many yards he gained, he never gave the Lions what I would call a "running game." To me, having a running game means that when you get to 1st and goal from the 5, you're going to be able to run it in, and the defense will not be able to stop you. That wasn't the case with Sanders and it won't be the case with Bush. It pretty much was with Jerome Bettis, and I think it will be with White. I would personally be shocked to see White drop out of the first round, if only because I think he's an absolutely perfect fit for the Steelers, and can't imagine him sliding past them.


  4. Don't forget point 1.


  5. Matt Leinart is going to be a good pro quarterback. He may be a disappointment, however, in that he'll go to a bad team that needs/expects him to be a savior, and he won't be. But he'll be a good and effective player for someone before his career is over.


  6. Every mock draft will have the Patriots selecting someone different at number 21.


  7. The Patriots won't select a player that any mock draft has them selecting.


  8. As always, keep point 1 in mind...


  9. I remain undecided on Vince Young. Everyone says that he won't be able to play the same in the NFL, but I don't think that's true. What I do think is true is that he won't be able to play the same way as effectively, and he won't be able to play the same way and stay healthy. His ability to run will still be useful, but he's going to need to do it less frequently. The questions that remain on Young all boil down to one question - what kind of decisions will he make on the field? If the answer to that is "great ones," then he'll be a great one. If the answer is "poor ones," then he'll kill a team for 4-5 years. If the answer is "OK, pretty good, not bad but not great," then he'll have some success, win some games, and possibly, with the right teammates, win it all.


  10. Which is basically the case for all QBs.


  11. Young, because of his physical abilities, may be able to get by on slightly worse decision making than some of his peers...


  12. Remember point 1.


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