Monday, May 29, 2006

Monday Pythagorean Report - 5/29

A 5-2 week for the Red Sox was pretty good. But it could have been a great 5-2 week, if they'd lost the 2 against Tampa instead of New York.

  • For all the moaning in NY about how decimated they've been by injury, they took the field Tuesday night with one (1) significant player on the DL - Hidecki Matsui. Yes, Tanyon Sturtze and Carl Pavano are still DL'ed. Pardon my yawns. Now, if Posada hits the DL, that hurts them. If Damon hits the DL, that hurts them. But thus far, they've missed 3 weeks of Sheffield and two (so far) of Matsui. It's not that big a deal...


  • The Tigers continue to roll. I remain skeptical. While they're obviously much improved over what they've been the past few years, and they do have some young players, the kind of players who can make the performance leaps necessary to significantly improve a team, I think that they've been the beneficiary of one of the easiest early-season schedules in baseball. Their record is currently 35-15. They are 22-5 against the woeful Royals, and two other AL central teams who got off to horrible starts, Cleveland and Minnesota. They're 12-10 against the rest of their schedule, and they haven't yet played any games against Boston, NY or Toronto, and of their 30 games inside their own division, only 3 have been against the White Sox. I think that the Tigers are a decent-to-good team, that they'll finish with a good record, but they won't finish ahead of Boston or New York.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/29/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit5.12(7)3.56(1)0.66(1)331735152

New York5.96(1)4.71(4)0.606(2)29192820-1

Chicago5.53(4)4.39(2)0.604(3)301932172

Cleveland5.8(2)5(8)0.567(4)28212425-4

Boston5.52(5)4.77(5)0.566(5)272130183

Toronto5.55(3)4.94(7)0.553(6)272227220

Texas5.16(6)4.88(6)0.526(7)262426240

Oakland4.46(11)4.7(3)0.476(8)24262327-1

Seattle4.5(10)5.04(9)0.448(9)23292230-1

Minnesota4.76(9)5.43(12)0.44(10)222723261

Baltimore5(8)5.76(13)0.435(11)222923281

Los Angeles4.42(12)5.14(10)0.431(12)22282129-1

Tampa Bay4.12(13)5.41(11)0.378(13)193221302

Kansas City3.88(14)6.52(14)0.278(14)13351137-2




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit11349

Chicago10656

Boston10161

New York9567

Toronto8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit10953

Chicago10062

New York9765

Boston9567

Toronto9072




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland5.8(5)3.4(1)0.727(1)4123-2

Detroit6.57(2)4.14(3)0.699(2)52611

Los Angeles6.33(3)4(2)0.699(3)42420

Toronto5.67(6)4.33(5)0.62(4)42420

New York7.83(1)6(12)0.62(5)42420

Boston6.14(4)4.71(6)0.619(6)43521

Chicago4.67(9)4.17(4)0.552(7)33421

Texas4.86(8)5.14(8)0.474(8)34431

Baltimore5.14(7)5.71(10)0.452(9)34340

Minnesota4.4(11)5(7)0.442(10)23412

Oakland4(12)5.29(9)0.375(11)3416-2

Tampa Bay4(12)5.86(11)0.332(12)2516-1

Seattle4(12)6(12)0.323(13)25250

Kansas City4.57(10)8.86(14)0.23(14)2516-1

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