Monday Pythagorean 6/19/06

Three weeks ago, on May 29, the standings in the AL East looked like this:

              W    L     GB
Boston        30   19    ---
New York      29   20     1
Toronto       28   22    2.5

This morning, we see the following:

Boston        39   28    ---
New York      38   29     1
Toronto       37   32     3

Over the last 3 weeks, Boston's 9-9, New York's 9-9, and the Blue Jays are 9-10. So the theme song for this morning's commentary comes from U2's _The Joshua Tree_ album, "Running To Stand Still."

• Not a great week for the Sox. 3-3, after a frustrating visit to Minnesota, and a signficantly less frustrating visit to the reeling Braves in Atlanta. Curt Schilling started two games, and gave up a total of 3 runs in 14 innings. And came away with 2 no-decisions, as he was matched up against 2 aces. The Red Sox won one and lost one, but Schilling won none and lost none.



• The Alex Gonzalez supporters are all beating their chests this morning, following an admittedly spectacular looking play when he reversed direction, stopped a ball and threw a runner out at first from his knees. It is not debatable that he looks great in the field. It's not debatable that he's been really amazingly consistent and sure handed defensively.
  
  What is debatable is whether he's actually played a great SS. He's made 3-4 spectacular plays in 67 games. He's been extremely consistent, handling everything hit his way. He's absolutely looked like a defensive asset.
  
  Whether he's actually been one is far less clear.
  
  There are 14 AL shortstops who've played at least 200 innings so far this year. If you look at total chances/inning for those SS, Derek Jeter is 14th and last. Immediately in front of him in 13th?
  
  Alex Gonzalez.
  
  Gonzalez has fewer chances per inning at SS than Alex Cora. Significantly fewer. In 455 innings, Gonzalez has had 209 total chances. In 134 innings, Cora's had 71. Cora's gotten to a ball once per every 1.89 innings that he's played SS this year. Gonzalez, behind the same pitching staff, has gotten to a ball once for every 2.18 innings.
  
  According to BaseballProspectus fielding runs, Alex Gonzalez has been 10 runs better than a replacement level SS this year, and 1 run WORSE than an average ML SS. I just can't find ANY evidence that suggests that he's a great defensive player. Does he look smooth? Absolutely. Has he been steady as a rock? No question. Has he made the occasional spectacular effort? He sure has.
  
  Has he been a tremendously valuable defensive player, irreplaceable? I can't find any evidence of that.



• I still hate inter-league play.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/19/2006

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	5.1	(7)	3.8	(1)	0.631	(1)	44	26	46	24	2
Chicago	5.54	(3)	4.51	(3)	0.593	(2)	41	28	44	25	3
New York	5.79	(1)	4.79	(5)	0.586	(3)	39	28	38	29	-1
Toronto	5.45	(4)	4.96	(7)	0.543	(4)	37	32	37	32	0
Texas	5.4	(5)	4.99	(9)	0.536	(5)	38	32	38	32	0
Cleveland	5.54	(2)	5.13	(11)	0.535	(6)	36	32	31	37	-5
Boston	5.31	(6)	5	(10)	0.528	(7)	35	32	39	28	4
Oakland	4.61	(11)	4.35	(2)	0.527	(8)	36	33	38	31	2
Seattle	4.8	(9)	4.75	(4)	0.505	(9)	36	35	34	37	-2
Minnesota	4.72	(10)	4.9	(6)	0.483	(10)	33	35	34	34	1
Los Angeles	4.48	(12)	4.97	(8)	0.452	(11)	31	38	31	38	0
Baltimore	4.97	(8)	5.59	(13)	0.446	(12)	32	39	32	39	0
Tampa Bay	4.34	(13)	5.43	(12)	0.399	(13)	28	42	29	41	1
Kansas City	3.94	(14)	6.22	(14)	0.303	(14)	21	47	19	49	-2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Detroit	106	56
Chicago	103	59
Boston	94	68
New York	92	70
Oakland	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Detroit	104	58
Chicago	99	63
New York	94	68
Boston	89	73
Toronto	88	74

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	6.29	(2)	2.86	(3)	0.809	(2)	6	1	6	1	0
Oakland	5.83	(3)	2.83	(2)	0.789	(3)	5	1	6	0	1
Chicago	7	(1)	3.71	(5)	0.761	(4)	5	2	6	1	1
Texas	5.43	(5)	5	(13)	0.538	(5)	4	3	4	3	0
Seattle	4.33	(8)	4	(8)	0.537	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
New York	4.83	(6)	4.67	(11)	0.516	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Tampa Bay	4.71	(7)	4.57	(10)	0.514	(8)	4	3	3	4	-1
Los Angeles	3.43	(13)	3.43	(4)	0.5	(9)	4	3	4	3	0
Kansas City	3.71	(10)	3.86	(6)	0.483	(10)	3	4	3	4	0
Toronto	3.57	(12)	3.86	(6)	0.465	(11)	3	4	3	4	0
Boston	4.17	(9)	4.83	(12)	0.433	(12)	3	3	3	3	0
Baltimore	3.71	(10)	5	(13)	0.367	(13)	3	4	3	4	0
Cleveland	3	(14)	4.33	(9)	0.338	(14)	2	4	1	5	-1