Monday, June 19, 2006

Monday Pythagorean 6/19/06

Three weeks ago, on May 29, the standings in the AL East looked like this:

W L GB
Boston 30 19 ---
New York 29 20 1
Toronto 28 22 2.5

This morning, we see the following:

Boston 39 28 ---
New York 38 29 1
Toronto 37 32 3

Over the last 3 weeks, Boston's 9-9, New York's 9-9, and the Blue Jays are 9-10. So the theme song for this morning's commentary comes from U2's _The Joshua Tree_ album, "Running To Stand Still."



  • Not a great week for the Sox. 3-3, after a frustrating visit to Minnesota, and a signficantly less frustrating visit to the reeling Braves in Atlanta. Curt Schilling started two games, and gave up a total of 3 runs in 14 innings. And came away with 2 no-decisions, as he was matched up against 2 aces. The Red Sox won one and lost one, but Schilling won none and lost none.


  • The Alex Gonzalez supporters are all beating their chests this morning, following an admittedly spectacular looking play when he reversed direction, stopped a ball and threw a runner out at first from his knees. It is not debatable that he looks great in the field. It's not debatable that he's been really amazingly consistent and sure handed defensively.

    What is debatable is whether he's actually played a great SS. He's made 3-4 spectacular plays in 67 games. He's been extremely consistent, handling everything hit his way. He's absolutely looked like a defensive asset.

    Whether he's actually been one is far less clear.

    There are 14 AL shortstops who've played at least 200 innings so far this year. If you look at total chances/inning for those SS, Derek Jeter is 14th and last. Immediately in front of him in 13th?

    Alex Gonzalez.

    Gonzalez has fewer chances per inning at SS than Alex Cora. Significantly fewer. In 455 innings, Gonzalez has had 209 total chances. In 134 innings, Cora's had 71. Cora's gotten to a ball once per every 1.89 innings that he's played SS this year. Gonzalez, behind the same pitching staff, has gotten to a ball once for every 2.18 innings.

    According to BaseballProspectus fielding runs, Alex Gonzalez has been 10 runs better than a replacement level SS this year, and 1 run WORSE than an average ML SS. I just can't find ANY evidence that suggests that he's a great defensive player. Does he look smooth? Absolutely. Has he been steady as a rock? No question. Has he made the occasional spectacular effort? He sure has.

    Has he been a tremendously valuable defensive player, irreplaceable? I can't find any evidence of that.


  • I still hate inter-league play.






AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/19/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit5.1(7)3.8(1)0.631(1)442646242

Chicago5.54(3)4.51(3)0.593(2)412844253

New York5.79(1)4.79(5)0.586(3)39283829-1

Toronto5.45(4)4.96(7)0.543(4)373237320

Texas5.4(5)4.99(9)0.536(5)383238320

Cleveland5.54(2)5.13(11)0.535(6)36323137-5

Boston5.31(6)5(10)0.528(7)353239284

Oakland4.61(11)4.35(2)0.527(8)363338312

Seattle4.8(9)4.75(4)0.505(9)36353437-2

Minnesota4.72(10)4.9(6)0.483(10)333534341

Los Angeles4.48(12)4.97(8)0.452(11)313831380

Baltimore4.97(8)5.59(13)0.446(12)323932390

Tampa Bay4.34(13)5.43(12)0.399(13)284229411

Kansas City3.94(14)6.22(14)0.303(14)21471949-2




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit10656

Chicago10359

Boston9468

New York9270

Oakland8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit10458

Chicago9963

New York9468

Boston8973

Toronto8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit6.29(2)2.86(3)0.809(2)61610

Oakland5.83(3)2.83(2)0.789(3)51601

Chicago7(1)3.71(5)0.761(4)52611

Texas5.43(5)5(13)0.538(5)43430

Seattle4.33(8)4(8)0.537(6)33330

New York4.83(6)4.67(11)0.516(7)33330

Tampa Bay4.71(7)4.57(10)0.514(8)4334-1

Los Angeles3.43(13)3.43(4)0.5(9)43430

Kansas City3.71(10)3.86(6)0.483(10)34340

Toronto3.57(12)3.86(6)0.465(11)34340

Boston4.17(9)4.83(12)0.433(12)33330

Baltimore3.71(10)5(13)0.367(13)34340

Cleveland3(14)4.33(9)0.338(14)2415-1


|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link