Monday, August 08, 2005

Monday Pythagorean Report



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/8/2005
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago4.87(6)3.98(1)0.591(1)654572387

Oakland4.96(4)4.18(3)0.578(2)644764470

Anaheim4.67(9)4(2)0.57(3)634864471

Toronto4.91(5)4.29(6)0.561(4)62485654-6

Boston5.54(1)4.94(10)0.552(5)614963472

Cleveland4.61(10)4.19(4)0.544(6)61516052-1

New York5.48(3)5.08(11)0.534(7)585159501

Texas5.53(2)5.17(12)0.53(8)58525654-2

Minnesota4.42(12)4.2(5)0.524(9)58535754-1

Detroit4.57(11)4.6(7)0.497(10)55555258-3

Baltimore4.68(8)4.92(9)0.477(11)535853580

Seattle4.35(13)4.61(8)0.474(12)52584763-5

Tampa Bay4.68(7)6(14)0.388(13)436943690

Kansas City4.31(14)5.81(13)0.366(14)41703873-3





Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Chicago10656

Oakland9369

Anaheim9369

Boston9369

New York8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Chicago10359

Oakland9369

Anaheim9369

Boston9270

Cleveland8775




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Oakland6.71(2)2(1)0.902(1)61610

Anaheim6.33(4)3.83(3)0.715(2)42420

Cleveland5.83(6)4.33(6)0.633(3)42511

Texas8.33(1)6.5(10)0.612(4)4233-1

Minnesota4.57(8)4.14(5)0.545(5)4334-1

New York5(7)4.67(7)0.532(6)33330

Chicago3.71(13)3.57(2)0.518(7)43430

Toronto4.5(9)4.67(7)0.483(8)33330

Boston6.5(3)6.83(11)0.477(9)33421

Detroit4.5(9)5.17(9)0.437(10)3324-1

Seattle3.17(14)3.83(3)0.413(11)24240

Tampa Bay6.17(5)7.5(13)0.411(12)24331

Baltimore4(11)7(12)0.264(13)25250

Kansas City3.83(12)9.5(14)0.16(14)1506-1



4-2 on the week. Could have been a really good week, had they held on to Saturday's game, but 4-2 consistently will get them to where they need to be. They were lucky to be playing Kansas City, however, as they fell behind in the first 4 games of the week, coming back three times against the Royals to win before Friday's debacle in Minnesota.

On the whole, the pitching was dreadful. But that's a little bit misleading. There were bad spots that were really bad, and there were runs given up by the back of the bullpen, and there were a bunch of runs attributable directly to the defense. But Wells was good on Saturday, Wakefield was good on Sunday, Schilling and Timlin and Bradford and Myers were all good. Clement was awful on Thursday, but that could easily have been rust - we'll need to see a couple more starts to know whether there's anything to worry about on that front.

Sometime in the next couple of weeks, Keith Foulke should be back. I fully expect him to return to closing, with Schilling moving in to the starting rotation and probably Arroyo into the bullpen. Jon Papelbon's gone back to Pawtucket to pitch in relief, and he's expected to be back in September. The pitching has been shaky and inconsisten all year, but if they make it to the post-season, as I fully expect them to, the pitching staff they take will look different from what we've seen so far...

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