Two weeks ago, the Red Sox were hot. They were coming off back-to-back weeks that had seen them go 11-1 and storm out to a 3 game lead in the AL East. Since then, they're 5-8, tied with KC for the 2nd worst record in the AL. And they've actually played slightly worse. They've scored 4 runs/game in the last 13 (13th in the league) and allowed 5.9 (12th). They've lost two leads late when Foulke melted down, and they've just lost 3-of-4 in Baltimore where they scored 1 run in each of the three losses. Meanwhile, the Yankees have been hot, and the lead in the division is down to just two games in the loss column over both Baltimore and New York.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/11/2005
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Chicago | 4.8 | (6) | 3.94 | (1) | 0.589 | (1) | 51 | 35 | 57 | 29 | 6
| | Anaheim | 4.77 | (7) | 4.03 | (2) | 0.576 | (2) | 51 | 37 | 52 | 36 | 1
| | Toronto | 4.86 | (5) | 4.33 | (5) | 0.553 | (3) | 49 | 39 | 44 | 44 | -5
| | Cleveland | 4.61 | (8) | 4.14 | (3) | 0.55 | (4) | 48 | 40 | 47 | 41 | -1
| | New York | 5.56 | (1) | 5.01 | (12) | 0.547 | (5) | 47 | 39 | 46 | 40 | -1
| | Texas | 5.53 | (2) | 5 | (11) | 0.546 | (6) | 47 | 39 | 46 | 40 | -1
| | Boston | 5.44 | (3) | 4.93 | (10) | 0.545 | (7) | 47 | 40 | 49 | 38 | 2
| | Minnesota | 4.6 | (9) | 4.19 | (4) | 0.543 | (8) | 47 | 39 | 48 | 38 | 1
| | Baltimore | 4.95 | (4) | 4.7 | (9) | 0.524 | (9) | 46 | 41 | 47 | 40 | 1
| | Oakland | 4.6 | (10) | 4.44 | (7) | 0.516 | (10) | 45 | 42 | 44 | 43 | -1
| | Detroit | 4.5 | (11) | 4.36 | (6) | 0.514 | (11) | 44 | 42 | 42 | 44 | -2
| | Seattle | 4.33 | (13) | 4.46 | (8) | 0.487 | (12) | 42 | 45 | 39 | 48 | -3
| | Kansas City | 4.31 | (14) | 5.57 | (13) | 0.384 | (13) | 33 | 54 | 30 | 57 | -3
| | Tampa Bay | 4.48 | (12) | 6.21 | (14) | 0.355 | (14) | 32 | 57 | 28 | 61 | -4
| |
|---|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Chicago | 107 | 55
|
| Anaheim | 96 | 66
|
| Boston | 91 | 71
|
| Minnesota | 90 | 72
|
| Baltimore | 88 | 74
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Chicago | 102 | 60
|
| Anaheim | 95 | 67
|
| Boston | 90 | 72
|
| Minnesota | 89 | 73
|
| Cleveland | 88 | 74
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| New York | 8.83 | (1) | 4.83 | (4) | 0.751 | (1) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0
| | Seattle | 6.57 | (4) | 3.71 | (1) | 0.74 | (2) | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0
| | Oakland | 5.83 | (5) | 5 | (6) | 0.57 | (3) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1
| | Kansas City | 5.57 | (7) | 4.86 | (5) | 0.562 | (4) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0
| | Detroit | 4.88 | (9) | 4.5 | (2) | 0.537 | (5) | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1
| | Toronto | 7.17 | (2) | 6.67 | (11) | 0.533 | (6) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1
| | Texas | 7 | (3) | 7.17 | (14) | 0.489 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1
| | Cleveland | 4.75 | (11) | 5.13 | (7) | 0.465 | (8) | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1
| | Chicago | 5.67 | (6) | 6.17 | (10) | 0.461 | (9) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Boston | 4.14 | (13) | 4.57 | (3) | 0.455 | (10) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0
| | Minnesota | 5 | (8) | 5.71 | (8) | 0.439 | (11) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0
| | Baltimore | 4.83 | (10) | 5.83 | (9) | 0.415 | (12) | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1
| | Tampa Bay | 4.29 | (12) | 7 | (13) | 0.289 | (13) | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1
| | Anaheim | 3.86 | (14) | 6.71 | (12) | 0.266 | (14) | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0
| |
|---|
In other words, it's been a lousy couple of weeks.
- Keith Foulke has gone to the DL. Good. Whatever is wrong with him, whether it's his head or his knee, 4 weeks off has got to help.
- Curt Schilling's not ready - yet - to come back and be a dominant starter, so he's going to pitch out of the bullpen. Good.
- Ramon Vazquez for Alex Cora. See Titanic, shuffling of deck chairs on...
- Jay Payton for someone, Alex Stern replacing him. Probably not a talent upgrade, but Stern may be a better defensive outfielder at this point, and you really don't want any of your starters sitting much, even Nixon vs. lefties. The talk of Kapler coming back is curious, because apparently they really did like what they were getting from him last year. Objectively speaking, Payton for Kapler is a downgrade, but Payton for Chad Bradford, which is rumored to be happening, and signing Kapler as a free agent is probably a net plus, at least if Bradford's healthy.
- Matt Clement to the All-Star team. I'm glad to see it, though I'd have preferred that it was because Kenny Rogers bowed out (or was injured) instead of Roy Halladay. (On the other hand, Rogers bowing out would have showed an admirable degree of class and understanding, and made it temporarily slightly more difficult to loathe him...)
- There was outrage in certain sections of Red Sox nation on Friday night when Terry Francona, following 3 days of high heat in Texas and a 6:00 AM arrival in Baltimore gave Johnny Damon, Jason Varitek, Manny Ramirez (none of whom are getting the All-Star break off) and Edgar Renteria the night off. The outcry got louder when they lost a rain-shortened 6 inning affair 3-1. As much as I hate to see them lose, I must admit to a certain feeling of amusement when the full lineup proceeded to score exactly 1 run in 9 innings both Saturday and Sunday. Because, after all, Francona's an idiot, and they'd certainly have won Friday if everyone had played, right?
All Star game Tuesday, and then a big 4 game series against New York...
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