Millar. Again.

I've addressed the Kevin Millar issue before. (Chris Lynch had quite an amusing take on it the last time.) Well, I'm going to do it again.

Today's stat of the day is VORP. Developed by Keith Woolner several years ago, VORP stands for "Value Over Replacement Player." VORP is based on the concept that a Major League player's value comes not directly from what he does, but from what he does in comparison to a hypothetical "replacement player." If,for example, Kevin Millar were not playing first base for the Red Sox, that doesn't mean that no one would be - someone different would be. Every team has first basemen in the minor leagues, players who are effectively available at Major League minimums, who would produce something if they were in the Major Leagues. Replacement level is set far below average, and player performance is compared to that level. So clearly, VORP is based on playing time as well as to production rates.

VORP is measured in "runs." Derek Lee, the Major League leader among first basemen, looks to have created 69.6 more runs than a replacement-level first baseman. At a rate of about 10 runs/win, Lee's been worth almost 7 wins over a replacement-level first baseman so far, a really astounding performance.

There are 59 players currently categorized as Major League first basemen. (There have been more play the position, but are categorized elsewhere. David Ortiz is a DH, Shea Hillenbrand's a 3rd baseman, etc.) Here are 4, chosen not at random, with their ranks among the 59, plate appearances, rate stats, and VORP.

MLB First Basemen

#	NAME	TEAM	POS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	VORP
34	John Olerud	BOS	1B	46	0.39	0.435	0.585	6.4
35	Kevin Millar	BOS	1B	281	0.273	0.352	0.38	5.9
41	Jose Offerman	NYN	1B	11	0.4	0.455	0.7	2.3
43	Dave McCarty	BOS	1B	6	0.5	0.667	0.5	1.3

In 46 plate appearances, John Olerud has produced more offense for the Red Sox than Kevin Millar has in 281. Jose Offerman and David McCarty are, in 17 Major League plate appearances, closer in combined offensive value to Millar than Millar is to what 958 (OK, 46) year-old Julio Franco (in 140 fewer plate appearances.) Millar's been a disaster.

Meanwhile, Roberto Petagine is "rotting away" down in Pawtucket.

Freely Available to Boston

Name	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roberto Petagine	48	178	37	59	13	2	15	43	121	36	31	0.331	0.447	0.68	1.127
Kevin Millar	71	245	27	67	12	1	4	30	93	25	35	0.273	0.352	0.38	0.732

Yes, Petagine's doing it against Minor League pitching. But he's been doing it for a long-time. He was a Major League star in Japan, like Ichiro and Matsui. There's no reason, no reason whatsoever that I can see to think that he wouldn't represent a significant upgrade at first base over Kevin Millar.