Stupidity, Millar and a little perspective...

Not even 8:30, and I've already heard the dumbest comment I expect to hear today.

"People think Varitek's having a great year, but he has fewer RBI than Millar."
- Gerry Callahan, WEEI

Varitek (C) - .329/.389/.580/.969 with 9 HR
Millar (1B) - .244/.342/.331/.673 with 2 HR

Yes, Gerry, Millar does have 22 RBI in 160 AB behind Ramirez and Ortiz, while Varitek only has 17 in 143 AB behind, well, Millar. If the above lines can't convince someone of the uselessness of RBI as a statistic, then he's not educable.

"As a statistic, RBIs were not only misleading but dishonest. They depended on managerial control, a hitter's position in the batting order, park dimensions and the success of his teammates in getting on base ahead of him."
- Branch Rickey, 1954

Speaking of Millar...

I made the case at the beginning of July last year that he was done. He'd just put up a full season of replacement-level shortstop offensive production. Looking at his age, his age when he made the majors, his skill set, I was convinced that he was done as an effective Major League player. He obviously proceeded to make mockery of my argument over the next 3 months.

I still think I'm right, and the Millar we saw from July through September of last year was a fluke. Over the last two calendar years, he's hit .279/.363/.453/.816. That's not good enough for a major league first baseman. But he's actually been worse than that for the vast majority of that time, because he was so good for a short stretch.

Kevin Millar

Time Span	G	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB		AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A: 2 years	299	1058	146	295	60	2	40	162	120		0.279	0.363	0.453	0.816
B: 7/03-9/03	72	252	46	83	20	0	13	53	33		0.329	0.419	0.563	0.982
A-B	227	806	100	212	40	2	27	109	87		0.263	0.345	0.418	0.763
Post-season	26	92	11	22	4	0	2	9	11		0.239	0.327	0.348	0.675
Totals including Post-season
A: 2 years	325	1150	157	317	64	2	42	171	131		0.276	0.361	0.444	0.805
B: 7/03-9/03	72	252	46	83	20	0	13	53	33		0.329	0.419	0.563	0.982
A-B	253	898	111	234	44	2	29	118	98		0.261	0.343	0.411	0.754

For most of the past two years, the Red Sox have had a .261/.343/.411/.754 first baseman. That's not good enough. It's time to make a change. I don't think that Kevin Youkilis is going to hit for enough power to be a great first baseman, but I know that he'll do a much better job reaching base than Millar has done, and frankly, he's likely to slug more than .411 as well. I think that Terry Francona's done, on the whole, a pretty good job, but it's time to make that change.

That was an ugly series in Toronto. The Tuesday bullpen meltdown, followed by the complete offensive shutdown. Toronto scored more runs in the first innings of each of the next two games than the Red Sox scored in the two games combined, so they trailed all night long. Very frustrating. More frustrating than the not-hitting, however, was the case of "stupids" that they came down with at the plate. In the fifth inning, they put runners at the corners with no outs. This is a team that's been successful by working the count, making pitchers work, getting a pitch to drive. The next 3 batters were retired on a total of 4 pitches, with Damon and Renteria swinging at the first pitch and Ortiz the 2nd. Dumb, dumb, dumb. In the 6th inning, with the pitcher having walked two of the first 4 batters in the inning, finally having thrown some pitches and tiring, Jay Payton fouls off the first pitch and then, with the bases loaded, grounds into a double play.

"I sense a great disturbance in the force..." The mood in Red Sox nation is getting ugly. "What? Overreact? Us???"

It's May 27. In the last 5 years, the 40 play-off teams have averaged 27-20, about 1 1/2 games better than Boston's 25-21 on May 27. 30% of the play-off teams in the past 5 years have had lower winning percentages on May 27 than Boston does. Three games behind in a 7 game play-off series is panic time - 5 games behind on May 27th is not. They've played poorly for the past two weeks, and it's been frustrating to watch. But it's still a very good team, they're still going to win a lot of games, and it still isn't time to freak out.

Oh, and by the way - when the Red Sox finish Sunday night in New York, they'll have 62 home games remaining, and only 51 on the road...

Update:
Mullet and Sully over at The House That Dewey Built are both addressing some of these same issues this morning...