Red Sox at the halfway point...

With their 6-5 loss last night in Texs, the Red Sox have reached the halfway point of the 2005 season. Time to look at where they stand, and compare it to where they were a year ago.

Overall

	2004	2005
W	44	46
L	37	35
longest streak (W)	6	7
longest streak (L)	5	4
Runs scored	437	449
runs allowed	380	403
Actual %	0.543	0.568
Pythagorean %	0.564	0.549
Pythagorean W	46	44
Luck	-2	2
Standings	2nd	1st
Games behind/ahead	7	2.5

Good news:

• Their record is two games better than it was last year.


• They've outscored the 2004 team by 12 runs.


• They're a stunning 9 1/2 games better off in the AL East race.

Bad news:

• They haven't played as well as the 2004 team had.

Last year, they were two games worse in the standings, but had underperformed. This year, they've overperformed. They've got a better record despite the fact that they haven't played as well.

Pitching:

Pitching Staff Comparison

2004		IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	RA/9	K/9
	Starters	502.33	502	277	235	49	155	371	4.21	1.31	4.96	6.65
	Bullpen	226.67	201	103	85	17	96	180	3.38	1.31	4.09	7.15
	Totals	729	703	380	320	66	251	551	3.95	1.31	4.69	6.8
2005		IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	RA/9	K/9
	Starters	494.33	517	264	247	48	152	337	4.5	1.35	4.81	6.14
	Bullpen	214.67	246	139	133	25	83	143	5.58	1.53	5.83	6
	Totals	709	763	403	380	73	235	480	4.82	1.41	5.12	6.09

Just looking at the starters' ERA, it looks like the 2004 team had better starting pitching. I don't think that's true. One of the things that people complained about incessantly last year were the un-earned runs allowed, blaming most of it on the defense. But the Red Sox starting pitchers were awful last year at preventing un-earned runs. Every error led to runs, and it's not all the defense's fault - sometimes the pitchers have to "pick up" the fielders, and they were awful last year, Derek Lowe in particular. If you look over to the RA/9 column, the which is the same as ERA except that it counts all runs, not just earned runs, you'll see that the starting pitchers have actually done a better job preventing runs this year than the starters did last year.

Starters

2004		IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	RA/9	K/9
	Schilling	120	114	43	41	8	21	110	3.08	1.13	3.23	8.25
	Lowe	86.67	110	73	58	8	38	41	6.02	1.71	7.58	4.26
	Pedro	110.67	97	48	46	14	30	105	3.74	1.15	3.9	8.54
	Wakefield	96.67	92	53	44	8	35	56	4.1	1.31	4.93	5.21
	Arroyo	76.67	77	49	38	10	26	55	4.46	1.34	5.75	6.46
	Kim	11.67	12	11	8	1	5	4	6.17	1.46	8.49	3.09
2005		IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	RA/9	K/9
	Clement	108.33	104	48	46	6	35	88	3.82	1.28	3.99	7.31
	Wells	84	101	47	47	11	10	47	5.04	1.32	5.04	5.04
	Arroyo	100.67	100	53	47	10	23	60	4.2	1.22	4.74	5.36
	Wakefield	102.67	99	49	45	10	45	62	3.94	1.4	4.3	5.44
	Miller	62	62	36	34	5	31	44	4.94	1.5	5.23	6.39
	Schilling	17.67	28	16	14	3	3	20	7.13	1.75	8.15	10.19
	Gonzalez	14	19	13	12	2	5	14	7.71	1.71	8.36	9
	Halama	5	4	2	2	1	0	2	3.6	0.8	3.6	3.6

Arroyo and Wakefield have been better than they were last year. Schilling plus Schilling replacements have been awful. But here's the interesting comparison:

Starters

	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	RA/9	K/9
Martinez, Lowe 2004	197.33	207	121	104	22	68	146	4.74	1.39	5.52	6.66
Wells, Clement 2005	192.33	205	95	93	17	45	135	4.35	1.3	4.45	6.32

Amid all of the "how could they let Martinez and Lowe go" panic in the off-season, I was steadfast in my contention that they could replace what they got from them last year. So far, they've more than done so.

The bullpen, on the other hand... Well, I don't know that there's any more to be said. They've been terrible, awful, no-good, very bad. Embree. Mantei. Foulke. Dreadful...

Bullpen (Top 6 by appearances)

2004	Player	Games	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	RA/9	K/9
	Mike Timlin	38	43.33	35	15	15	3	12	33	3.12	1.08	3.12	6.85
	Alan Embree	38	31.33	27	19	16	5	10	24	4.6	1.18	5.46	6.89
	Keith Foulke	36	42.33	28	8	6	2	10	35	1.28	0.9	1.7	7.44
	Lenny Dinardo	22	27.67	34	17	13	1	12	21	4.23	1.66	5.53	6.83
	Scott Williamson	21	21.67	7	4	3	0	12	24	1.25	0.88	1.66	9.97
	Mark Malaska	16	15.67	19	9	8	1	10	9	4.6	1.85	5.17	5.17
2005	Player	Games	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	RA/9	K/9
	Mike Timlin	40	40.67	44	8	8	1	10	26	1.77	1.33	1.77	5.75
	Alan Embree	38	35	40	32	31	8	11	27	7.97	1.46	8.23	6.94
	Keith Foulke	37	39	46	27	27	8	15	29	6.23	1.56	6.23	6.69
	Matt Mantei	34	26.33	23	20	19	1	24	22	6.49	1.78	6.84	7.52
	Mike Myers	30	16.33	15	5	5	1	5	10	2.76	1.22	2.76	5.51
	John Halama	27	41	50	29	26	4	9	24	5.71	1.44	6.37	5.27

They've given up almost 70% more runs in less than 10% more innings pitched. It's been a disaster. They cannot go into post-season with a bullpen that performs this way and have any reasonable expectation of success.



Offense:

As noted above, they've scored more runs in the first half this year than they did last year.

Bullpen (Top 6 by appearances)

	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004	2879	437	792	184	11	103	415	339	21	33	613	31	16	8	20	65	0.275	0.356	0.454	0.81
2005	2831	449	806	175	14	95	434	315	16	29	525	20	1	5	29	71	0.285	0.359	0.457	0.816

The isolated power is actually down a little bit, but they've made up for it by raising the batting average by 10 points. Fewer doubles and home runs (and walks) but more singles. And fewer strike-outs.

I don't have all of the at-bats for each year broken down by position, but we can make some rough comparisons anyway. Reese played SS most of the first half of 2004, and Kapler played right.

Regulars

		Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1B	2004	Kevin Millar	76	70	265	28	73	18	0	5	23	25	0	8	49	0	1	0	2	8	0.275	0.353	0.4	0.753
1B	2005	Kevin Millar	71	67	245	27	67	12	1	4	30	25	0	7	35	0	0	0	4	5	0.273	0.352	0.38	0.732
		Difference																			-0.002	-0.001	-0.02	-0.021
2B	2004	Mark Bellhorn	76	76	295	57	77	16	2	9	46	58	1	3	91	2	0	1	3	6	0.261	0.384	0.42	0.804
2B	2005	Mark Bellhorn	76	74	254	35	58	20	0	6	27	45	1	0	93	2	0	0	3	4	0.228	0.341	0.378	0.719
		Difference																			-0.033	-0.043	-0.042	-0.085
3B	2004	Bill Mueller	40	39	159	27	43	7	0	6	25	16	0	1	22	0	1	0	1	3	0.27	0.339	0.428	0.767
3B	2005	Bill Mueller	73	69	242	36	69	15	2	3	32	34	3	6	35	0	0	0	2	15	0.285	0.384	0.401	0.785
		Difference																			0.015	0.045	-0.027	0.018
C	2004	Jason Varitek	73	63	246	33	67	12	0	9	30	36	5	6	71	5	2	0	0	7	0.272	0.378	0.431	0.809
C	2005	Jason Varitek	69	66	245	39	74	16	1	13	34	24	2	3	60	0	0	1	2	3	0.302	0.369	0.535	0.904
		Difference																			0.03	-0.009	0.104	0.095
CF	2004	Johnny Damon	78	74	313	61	96	22	2	7	38	45	1	2	35	8	4	0	2	4	0.307	0.395	0.457	0.852
CF	2005	Johnny Damon	76	74	325	61	110	21	5	4	42	24	2	0	34	8	1	0	3	4	0.338	0.381	0.471	0.852
		Difference																			0.031	-0.014	0.014	0
DH	2004	David Ortiz	79	75	326	44	98	31	0	22	76	27	1	1	69	0	0	0	3	5	0.301	0.353	0.598	0.951
DH	2005	David Ortiz	79	78	307	58	96	23	1	19	68	42	3	1	59	0	0	0	4	7	0.313	0.393	0.58	0.973
		Difference																			0.012	0.04	-0.018	0.022
LF	2004	Manny Ramirez	79	79	297	49	100	27	0	22	67	51	10	3	66	1	4	0	3	11	0.337	0.435	0.65	1.085
LF	2005	Manny Ramirez	77	76	286	51	78	15	1	21	73	36	2	5	63	1	0	0	5	10	0.273	0.358	0.552	0.91
		Difference																			-0.064	-0.077	-0.098	-0.175
RF	2004	Gabe Kapler	65	33	136	19	35	8	1	1	10	8	0	1	22	3	1	0	1	2	0.257	0.301	0.353	0.654
RF	2005	Trot Nixon	70	59	229	40	68	17	0	8	41	30	2	2	32	1	0	0	4	4	0.297	0.377	0.476	0.853
		Difference																			0.04	0.076	0.123	0.199
SS	2004	Pokey Reese	69	62	204	27	50	6	2	3	26	13	1	0	42	6	2	5	1	5	0.245	0.289	0.338	0.627
SS	2005	Edgar Renteria	76	74	311	45	85	14	3	6	30	22	0	1	43	8	0	1	0	13	0.273	0.323	0.395	0.718
		Difference																			0.028	0.034	0.057	0.091

• Millar's been bad. Really bad. Bellhorn's been acceptable for a 2nd baseman, but much worse than he was last year.


• For all the talk about what a great season Johnny Damon's having, his OPS for the first half is exactly what it was last year. He's replaced a lot of walks and a couple of home runs with singles.


• The position with the biggest performance drop is left-field, and Manny's still one of their better hitters. That just shows how dominant he was in the first half last year.


• As weak as Renteria's been, he's an enormous upgrade over Pokey Reese.


• Trot Nixon was badly missed last year.


• Varitek has 7 more hits, to raise his batting average by .030 points. But he's missing 12 walks, so his OBP is actually down. (He's still having a great year.)

Bottom line:

This is a very good team. They've got to be favored to win the AL East as things stand right now, but they've got to get that bullpen fixed. The starters have been fine, and Schilling will be back soon. The offense has been fine, and there are more places where you could reasonably expect improvement than decline. They're leading the Majors in runs scored, and absent a couple of serious injuries, that's not going to change. They're currently three up in the loss column in their division, and there's no reason not to expect that margin to increase going forward.