Monday, July 04, 2005

Monday Pythagorean Report



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/4/2005
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Anaheim4.85(5)3.8(2)0.61(1)493250311

Chicago4.74(6)3.78(1)0.602(2)483254266

Cleveland4.6(8)4.04(3)0.559(3)45354436-1

Toronto4.7(7)4.16(5)0.555(4)46364240-4

Minnesota4.57(9)4.05(4)0.555(5)443545341

Texas5.43(2)4.84(10)0.552(6)44364238-2

Boston5.55(1)4.96(11)0.551(7)443646342

Baltimore4.96(4)4.62(9)0.533(8)433844371

New York5.31(3)5.03(12)0.525(9)42384139-1

Detroit4.46(12)4.35(6)0.512(10)40383741-3

Oakland4.51(10)4.4(7)0.511(11)41404041-1

Seattle4.14(14)4.53(8)0.459(12)37433446-3

Kansas City4.2(13)5.64(13)0.368(13)29512654-3

Tampa Bay4.5(11)6.15(14)0.361(14)30522755-3




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Chicago10953

Anaheim10062

Boston9369

Minnesota9270

Cleveland8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Chicago10359

Anaheim9963

Minnesota9171

Boston9171

Cleveland9072




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Oakland6(3)2.33(1)0.849(1)51510

Toronto7(1)3(2)0.825(2)5142-1

Cleveland6(3)3.57(5)0.721(3)52520

Minnesota4.83(6)3.17(3)0.684(4)42511

Anaheim6.29(2)4.57(7)0.642(5)43521

Texas6(3)5.43(12)0.546(6)43430

Chicago3.5(9)3.5(4)0.5(7)33421

New York4.2(7)4.6(8)0.458(8)23321

Detroit3.17(11)3.83(6)0.413(9)2415-1

Baltimore3.5(9)5.17(10)0.329(10)24240

Boston3.83(8)7.5(14)0.226(11)15241

Kansas City2.5(12)5(9)0.22(12)15150

Tampa Bay2.5(12)5.33(11)0.2(13)15150

Seattle2.33(14)5.5(13)0.172(14)15150





A big let-down after the previous two weeks. Very disappointing. The bullpen utterly failed on Tuesday and Friday, and the offense was so-so all week. That game yesterday was very winnable, but they didn't get done what they needed to get done. Obviously, some of that credit goes to the Blue Jays, but not all of it. If a pitcher's dominating a game the way Halladay's line says he was dominating, he doesn't allow runners to reach 3rd with no outs, where an out or a defensive error allows a run in. But the Red Sox got runners to 3rd with no outs all day yesterday, then didn't handle the situation well. Every time they got a chance, someone got impatient and got himself out early in the count.

- For all but one of the last 7 weeks, the Red Sox and Orioles have tracked each other. But the one that they didn't, the Red Sox gained 6 games on them. So we've gone from Boston tracking 3 games down to Baltimore tracking 3 games down.

- Tonight is game 81, the halfway point. Look for a mid-season report tomorrow...

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