Red Sox odds and ends

The first 3 Baltimore/Boston games at Fenway went to the Orioles, 8-4, 11-8 and 8-1. Last night, they finally held them under 8, as Wade Miller fought through some early inconsistency to throw 7 innings of 1-run ball. The Red Sox offense, which apparently missed the plane back from New York, arrived in the 5th. It was a big win, because now they're only 3 out with a chance to get to 1, instead of 5 out with a chance to get to 3.

Last night's game felt uncomfortable through 4. It was easy to imagine Cabrera holding them down and the Orioles breaking out.

Tim Wakefield goes tonight. Wakefield got off to a tremendous start for the Sox this year, but has cooled down. Considerably.

Tim Wakefield

	GS	W	L	IP	IP/G	WHIP	ERA	K/9	BB/9
through 4/22	4	2	0	25.67	6.42	1.13	1.75	5.61	3.51
since	6	2	4	36.67	6.11	1.8	6.38	5.65	4.91
total	10	4	4	62.33	6.23	1.52	4.48	5.63	4.33

Some of that is clearly luck. The strikeout rate isn't down. The walk rate is up, fairly significantly, but not enough to account for the difference in ERA. The home run rate is up but not a lot. He hasn't pitched as badly as his ERA in the last 6, and he didn't pitch as well as his ERA in the first 4. They need to get a good start from him tonight.

On the other hand, if the Red Sox treat Sidney Ponson the way they typically do, they won't need a great start from Wakefield. Ponson's started against the Red Sox 16 times in his career, and beaten them twice. He's allowed at least 4 ER against them in 7 of his last 8 starts. His career ERA vs. Boston is 6.70, his WHIP is 1.63 and he's allowed over 1.5 HR per 9 IP. A win tonight guarantees that they finish the series at least as close as they started it, and puts a lot of pressure on the Orioles tomorrow.