AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/23/2005
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Chicago | 4.66 | (7) | 3.45 | (1) | 0.634 | (1) | 28 | 16 | 31 | 13 | 3
| | Baltimore | 5.49 | (3) | 4.56 | (7) | 0.584 | (2) | 25 | 18 | 27 | 16 | 2
| | Minnesota | 4.69 | (6) | 3.95 | (3) | 0.578 | (3) | 24 | 18 | 25 | 17 | 1
| | Boston | 5.51 | (2) | 4.77 | (9) | 0.566 | (4) | 24 | 19 | 25 | 18 | 1
| | Texas | 5.32 | (4) | 4.77 | (10) | 0.549 | (5) | 24 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 0
| | New York | 5.59 | (1) | 5.11 | (11) | 0.541 | (6) | 24 | 20 | 23 | 21 | -1
| | Toronto | 4.8 | (5) | 4.39 | (6) | 0.541 | (7) | 24 | 20 | 23 | 21 | -1
| | Detroit | 4.48 | (9) | 4.12 | (4) | 0.538 | (8) | 23 | 19 | 20 | 22 | -3
| | Anaheim | 4.19 | (11) | 3.93 | (2) | 0.529 | (9) | 23 | 20 | 25 | 18 | 2
| | Cleveland | 4 | (13) | 4.21 | (5) | 0.476 | (10) | 20 | 22 | 19 | 23 | -1
| | Seattle | 4.28 | (10) | 4.74 | (8) | 0.453 | (11) | 19 | 24 | 18 | 25 | -1
| | Tampa Bay | 4.56 | (8) | 5.93 | (14) | 0.381 | (12) | 17 | 28 | 15 | 30 | -2
| | Oakland | 3.93 | (14) | 5.14 | (12) | 0.38 | (13) | 16 | 27 | 17 | 26 | 1
| | Kansas City | 4.16 | (12) | 5.5 | (13) | 0.375 | (14) | 16 | 28 | 13 | 31 | -3
| |
|---|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Chicago | 114 | 48
|
| Baltimore | 102 | 60
|
| Minnesota | 96 | 66
|
| Boston | 94 | 68
|
| Anaheim | 94 | 68
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Chicago | 106 | 56
|
| Baltimore | 97 | 65
|
| Minnesota | 94 | 68
|
| Boston | 92 | 70
|
| Texas | 89 | 73
|
The Red Sox still project as one of the 4 best teams in the AL, but they'll have to pass one of the 3 in front of them to actually get into play-off position. (Note to anxious fans - there's still time...)
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Texas | 7.4 | (1) | 2.6 | (1) | 0.871 | (1) | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1
| | Anaheim | 5.71 | (4) | 3.29 | (5) | 0.734 | (2) | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0
| | Toronto | 5.33 | (5) | 3.17 | (4) | 0.722 | (3) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0
| | Cleveland | 4 | (8) | 2.86 | (2) | 0.649 | (4) | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0
| | Tampa Bay | 6.17 | (2) | 4.67 | (8) | 0.625 | (5) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0
| | Minnesota | 3.57 | (12) | 3 | (3) | 0.579 | (6) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0
| | Boston | 5.83 | (3) | 5.33 | (10) | 0.541 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1
| | Baltimore | 3.83 | (9) | 3.67 | (6) | 0.52 | (8) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | New York | 4.83 | (6) | 5.83 | (12) | 0.415 | (9) | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2
| | Seattle | 3.67 | (10) | 4.5 | (7) | 0.407 | (10) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0
| | Detroit | 4.17 | (7) | 5.33 | (10) | 0.389 | (11) | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1
| | Chicago | 2.33 | (14) | 4.67 | (8) | 0.22 | (12) | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1
| | Oakland | 2.83 | (13) | 6.17 | (13) | 0.194 | (13) | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -1
| | Kansas City | 3.67 | (10) | 8.17 | (14) | 0.188 | (14) | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -1
| |
|---|
One of the keys to Pythagorean underperformance is blow-out wins. If you spread a 24-3 margin over 7 games, you'd expect to go 7-0. When you cram it into two games, you underperform.One of the vagaries of baseball is the way in which events build upon each other sequentially. A pitcher who gives up home run, double, walk, walk, strikeout, strikeout, strikeout will give up 1 run, while a pitcher who gives up strikeout, strikeout, walk, walk, double, home run, strikeout will give up 4, even though they've given up exactly the same at-bat results. Well, it happens with teams and weeks as well. Two days ago, panic was running through large swaths of Red Sox nation, coming off that embarassing sweep in Toronto and a brutal Friday night loss in NY. They made a lot of that panic subside by absolutely hammering the Yankees over the past two days, by a combined total of 24-3. Had they won the first two games of the week and then lost 4 straight, Monday morning would look a lot different.Edgar Renteria had a good week. After being dreadful for the first 39 games, he broke out on the road trip. In a big way. He had at least 1 hit in each of the 6 games, multiple hits in 5 of the 6, and 3 or more in each of the last 4 games.
Schedule thus far
| G | AB | H | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS
|
|---|
| Pre-road trip | 39 | 159 | 38 | 2 | 0.239 | 0.292 | 0.333 | 0.626
|
| road trip | 6 | 24 | 16 | 2 | 0.667 | 0.68 | 1.042 | 1.722
|
| total | 45 | 183 | 54 | 4 | 0.295 | 0.342 | 0.426 | 0.768
|
That's a staggering 1-week boost to all his numbers given where we are in the season.David Wells threw 14 complete innings and 2 partials. He gave up 4 runs in 1, 2 runs in 1 and no runs in 12 (plus 1 inherited runner was allowed in by the bullpen.) His ERA for the week was 4.3, which is nothing special, but he showed signs again, as he had before being hurt, of getting into the kind of groove where he's a very effective pitcher.Detroit went into Baltimore and swept the Orioles. The net result of the Red Sox 2-4 week? Last Monday they were 2 games out of first. Today they're 3 games out. With 4 home games coming against the team in front of them. They can be in first place on Friday morning without any assistance from anyone. They could also play themselves into real trouble. I think that they're far more likely to sweep than be swept...The schedule has favored Boston's division opponents so far:
Schedule thus far
| Home | Away
|
|---|
| Baltimore | 31 | 18
|
| New York | 29 | 21
|
| Boston | 19 | 30
|
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