Monday Pythagorean report

Monday morning American League Pythagorean report for May 2.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/2/2005

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Chicago	4.56	(8)	3.24	(1)	0.651	(1)	16	9	18	7	2
Baltimore	6	(1)	4.71	(9)	0.609	(2)	15	9	17	7	2
Boston	5.67	(2)	4.54	(7)	0.6	(3)	14	10	13	11	-1
Minnesota	4.75	(7)	3.96	(2)	0.583	(4)	14	10	15	9	1
Detroit	5.26	(3)	4.61	(8)	0.56	(5)	13	10	11	12	-2
Anaheim	4.48	(9)	4.16	(4)	0.534	(6)	13	12	14	11	1
Seattle	4.4	(11)	4.16	(4)	0.526	(7)	13	12	12	13	-1
Toronto	5	(5)	4.77	(10)	0.522	(8)	14	12	14	12	0
New York	5.16	(4)	5.48	(12)	0.473	(9)	12	13	10	15	-2
Texas	4.92	(6)	5.46	(11)	0.453	(10)	12	14	12	14	0
Oakland	3.68	(14)	4.12	(3)	0.449	(11)	11	14	13	12	2
Cleveland	3.79	(12)	4.46	(6)	0.426	(12)	10	14	9	15	-1
Tampa Bay	4.44	(10)	6.4	(14)	0.339	(13)	8	17	8	17	0
Kansas City	3.72	(13)	5.6	(13)	0.321	(14)	8	17	7	18	-1

Chicago and Baltimore are off to fabulous starts. I don't trust either of them to still be in first a month from now.

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Chicago	117	45
Baltimore	115	47
Minnesota	101	61
Anaheim	91	71
Boston	88	74

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Chicago	107	55
Baltimore	101	61
Boston	96	66
Minnesota	95	67
Detroit	89	73

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Baltimore	7.6	(1)	4.2	(8)	0.747	(1)	4	1	5	0	1
Toronto	5.83	(2)	3.5	(3)	0.718	(2)	4	2	5	1	1
Chicago	4.67	(5)	2.83	(1)	0.714	(3)	4	2	3	3	-1
Minnesota	4.71	(4)	3.43	(2)	0.642	(4)	4	3	5	2	1
Detroit	4.17	(7)	3.83	(4)	0.538	(5)	3	3	4	2	1
Seattle	4	(8)	4	(5)	0.5	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
New York	4	(8)	4.17	(6)	0.481	(7)	3	3	2	4	-1
Texas	4.5	(6)	5	(11)	0.452	(8)	3	3	2	4	-1
Oakland	3.67	(11)	4.17	(6)	0.442	(9)	3	3	4	2	1
Boston	5.8	(3)	6.6	(13)	0.441	(10)	2	3	2	3	0
Kansas City	4	(8)	4.83	(10)	0.414	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Anaheim	3.33	(13)	4.33	(9)	0.382	(12)	2	4	3	3	1
Cleveland	3.4	(12)	5.4	(12)	0.3	(13)	2	3	1	4	-1
Tampa Bay	3.33	(13)	6.83	(14)	0.212	(14)	1	5	0	6	-1

Aside from the bullpen meltdowns and the starting pitchers going on the DL and the suspensions, it was a hell of a week...

The questions facing the team:

Can they patch the starting pitching successfully until Schilling and/or Wells make it back?

Is Foulke ready to start pitching effectively again? Embree?

Is the infield ready to start playing offense? Mueller/Renteria/Bellhorn/Millar/Vazquez are hitting a combined .239/.324/.328/.652. That's pathetic. It's astounding that they're 2nd in the AL in R/G, because it's not like Manny and Ortiz are off to spectacular starts (for them, anyway) either. Varitek's been outstanding, as has Damon, and Nixon's doing a great job reaching base. But this offense should be better than they've been so far.

Four in Detroit this week, with Halama starting tomorrow, and someone else (Jeremi Gonzalez or Abe Alvarez probably) tonight. Three at home against Seattle next weekend, and all indications are that, barring a setback in a rehab start on Tuesday, we'll see Wade Miller in a Boston uniform on Sunday.